Lebanese Politics

Extending the Lebanese Parliament’s Mandate

Lebanese Parliament (The Daily Star)

There has been a lot of talk recently on a draft law that would extend the parliament’s mandate six more months so that the lawmakers can reach an agreement on an electoral law. Some reports even suggested it might be two years instead of six months. And that means a lot.

Wages. Yes, we tend to forget that quite often, but a Member of the Parliament gets paid 7333$/Month (It actually gets higher with the new raise of 2012 and with the special allowances). That means that in six months, we are paying the lawmakers 7333×6×128 which is equivalent to 5.63 Million Dollars. So just in case the parliament’s mandate gets extended for the purpose of an electoral law, that law will cost 5.63 Million Dollars. And It’s not about paying wages to lawmakers. If we have elections, the 2013 MPs will get the wages instead of the 2009 ones anyway, and even the MPs that won’t be here in the 2013 parliament will still get at least 55% of their MP wage. What is frustrating is that people who were elected to work and get paid for 4 years, will now work and get paid for an extra time, while theoretically, they shouldn’t.

If They wanted a law they would have agreed on one. It doesn’t take that much (more…)

Lebanese Politics’ Double Standards

Michel Aoun (The Daily Star)

“We have suggested an electoral law based on proportional representation and to consider Lebanon as one electoral district although we favor the Orthodox proposal, but we did not get any response.”

That’s the second time in one week that Michel Aoun endorses the single district with proportional representation electoral law. What is quite shocking here is that Aoun has been pushing for the Orthodox Gathering Law for quite a while, and that the two laws have compelete opposite consequences (See [here] for the single district law and [here] for the Orthodox law). Another major difference is that the single district law brings the Christians 38.4% of the MPs (The parliament quotas stay the same 50% -50%) while the Orthodox Law gives Christians the power to elect 50%. It’s really very weird to see Aoun endorsing the Single district law after refusing over and over again any electoral law that doesn’t give the power to Christians to elect all their MPs. But why is Aoun endorsing the single district law? (more…)

Waiting For The Electoral Law -The Lebanese Forces’ Hybrid Law: A Review

Lebanon’s Electoral Map According To The Lebanese Forces Hybrid Law. The colored districts are the small winner-takes-all ones and the big ones within the white line are the big districts under proportional unlike in the picture.

There has been a lot of talk on a hybrid Proportional-Representation/ Winner-Takes-All electoral law in the past few weeks, and almost all the parties (PSP, Phalanges, Amal, Lebanese Forces) gave their proposals of hybrid laws in the electoral committees. The different hybrid draft laws are very similar to each other and mostly differ in the percentage of MPs elected by proportional representation (30%, 40%, 50%) but less in the constituencies’ boundaries (Small districts for the winner-takes-all seats and big ones for the PR seats). I’m going to review the draft law proposed from the Lebanese Forces. You can see the criteria of the law here.

Here’s the allocation of seats according to the law and the number of voters by sects:

Allocations Of Seats According To The Lebanese Forces Hybrid Draft Law, Christian-Elected MPs Are In Red. Click to enlarge. Taken from the Lebanese Forces website

In a nutshell, the law separates Lebanon into two types of constituencies: 27 small (more…)

Saad Hariri’s Speech And The Senate’s Constitutional Amendment

Saad Hariri’s Televised Speech (The Daily Star/Mohammad Azakir)

Hariri’s 14th of February speech looks like a continuity of his interview on LBC two weeks ago. As I noted earlier, Saad Hariri is changing the way he speaks. He’s starting to act with Hezbollah from a secular point of view, instead of getting too sectarian and scaring the Christians with the Sunni boogeyman that Michel Aoun keeps taking advantage of. He’s also showing the Lebanese some national stances: At first the right to Civil Marriage, and now the right for the youth (18-21) to vote among other things. (You can check his speech here). Here’s two contradictions his speech that are noteworthy:

The First Contradiction

Hence, we took the initiative, while holding onto the Taef Accord, to make clear proposals that require (more…)

Waiting for the Electoral Law- Future Movement’s Proposal Or The 37 Districts Law- Part II

Ahmad Fatfat (The Daily Star/Mohammad Azakir)

[Part I]

In part I, I analyzed the districts of Beirut and Mount-Lebanon. I will now continue with the other districts.

The 7 Districts Of The Bekaa. Baalbek and Zahle are separated each to two districts while Hermel, West Bekaa and Rashaya become independent constituencies.

Baalbek-Hermel. Baalbek is separated to two regions, Baalbek 2 (1 Maronite, 1 Greek Catholic, 1 Sunni, 1 Shia) including the Christian towns with some Sunnis and Shias, and Baalbek 1 (3 Shias, 1 Sunni) that is predominantly Shia. M14 would thus be able to compete in a Baalbek 2 stripped from the Shia heavyweights of Baalbek 1. Hermel had to be separated because the largest size of a constituency should be a Caza. Being able to control 4 of 10 seats in Hezbollah’s stronghold will be a major breakthrough for M14.
Zahle. Zahle is separated into two districts, (more…)

Waiting for the Electoral Law- Future Movement’s Proposal Or The 37 Districts Law- Part I

Ahmad Fatfat (The Daily Star/Mohammad Azakir)

The number of electoral draft laws being discussed is too damn high. And to make things a bit more complicated than they are, Future Movement just added another draft law, and Ahmad Fatfat (among many other Future Movement MPs) are trying to make sure the draft reaches the electoral committee . The law is in the middle between the 1960 law and the 50 districts law the Lebanese Forces proposed in 2012.

The key feature of the law is that it uses small districts that can have a maximum of 5 MPs and can not be larger than a caza. The districts happen to primarily serve the interests of Future Movement, Jumblatt and in a way the Phalanges and (more…)

Hariri’s Civil Marriage Stance: More Than An Approval

Saad Hariri (Grace Kassab/The Daily Star)

وفتشت على توقيع من زميل محمدي على هذا المشروع الموجود في درج مكتبي، ولم أجد هذا الزميل المحمدي لتوقيع هذا المشروع معي.
(ايدي بعض النواب ترتفع وتقول أنا أوقع).
من؟ أنت؟ أنت؟ أنت؟ أريد واحداً سنياً

“And I searched for a fellow Muslim than is willing to vote for this project [Civil Marriage], and I did not find this Muslim colleague to sign this project with me.

(Hands of some deputies rise and they say I sign)

Who ? You? You? You? I want a Sunni one.”

Raymond Edde didn’t live to see it, but apparently, Saad Hariri is the “Sunni one”. And this major step from the former PM means a lot.

Going against the Mufti. The fatwa made any Muslim official voting for the law an apostate. Hariri, after making sure for the past two years that he was the representative of the Sunnis by his sectarian speeches, is now making sure that he takes down any official religious influence (like the one coming from the Grand Mufti) by opposing it since the very beginning. Also by saying no to the Mufti, It’s going to be harder from now on for M8 to call him a sectarian or a salafi supporter. Meet the newest Sunni moderate, Saad Hariri.

A National Stand. Mikati keeps describing himself as a centrist. He is always shown as a wise man, that is ready to give up anything “for the sake of Lebanon”. At first he accepts the premiership in June 2011 so that Lebanon doesn’t get destabilized, then he refuses to resign in October 2012 so that the country doesn’t sink into chaos. At both times, he goes against the majority of the Sunnis, “for the sake of Lebanon”. Meanwhile, Mikati adopts a self-dissociation policy from Syria to show himself as a neutral politician that only cares about Lebanon. Hariri understood that unless he shows himself as a Lebanese citizen, ready to sacrifice his ideals for the sake of Lebanon, he will not be able to make it as a prime minister. Hariri told Marcel Ghanem that he wouldn’t allow his children to have civil marriage, but that he would support civil marriage it because he represents the Lebanese. Hariri is now going against his sect (or at least the Grand Mufti) “for the sake of Lebanon”.

Hezbollah’s strategy against Hezbollah. Hariri understood what Hezbollah did during the electoral debate. Hezbollah knew from the beginning that Future Movement would go against the Orthodox Gathering law, so he supported it. Now Hariri is doing the same thing. He knows that Hezbollah wouldn’t accept civil marriage as a religious party, so he makes sure he’s the first to support civil marriage putting Michel Aoun’s Muslim allies in an embarrassing situation. It’s all about the timing. Notice Hezbollah’s silence.

It seems that Hariri is learning from his mistakes.

Moulahazat

A Lebanese Political Blog