Author: Moulahazat

The Aftermath Of Wissam Al Hassan’s Assassination

It’s amazing how few seconds can change a nation. The assassination of the General happened within seconds, but its repercussions will shape Lebanon’s political future. As if time stopped and brought us back to the 14th of February 2012. Yet it’s not much of a déjà vu. 2012 is not 2005, and this time, things have deeply changed.

The Consequences.

M14 found in the assassination the perfect timing. They wanted to bring the government down, and now they can easily take it down. The bomb is big enough to destroy the government with it. They wanted a popular boost, ” a Cedar Revolution II” and got the alibi to move. Samir Geagea wanted to take the Christian advantage over Aoun for good, and he got it. The explosion happened in the heart of Achrafieh, a Christian region, and the bombing made Geagea – quite awkwardly – the strong man. Hariri and the FM are on the rise again: Mikati seems weaker than ever, and we might be on the eve of another 14 March 2005. (more…)

Wissam El Hassan’s Assassination

An explosion targeting an ISF General, killing 8 Lebanese and wounding dozens brings us back to the black days.

Confusion and Sectarianism?

At first, it’s a small explosion. Half an hour later, it is reported to be one of the biggest blasts Lebanon has ever saw. 4 Hours later, it  turns out that one of Lebanon’s top security officials, the head of the information branch of the ISF is the target. At first, politicians on the ground said that the bomb was destined to hit civilians and spread fear in the capital as there were no politicians targeted. Some went as far as considering it an attack against the Christians of Beirut. Pictures of Bachir started surfacing all over the Facebook profiles, so were statuses on the Hundred days war. (more…)

Hezbollah’s Drone: A Bit More Than An Airplane

Still Image by the IDF Showing the Drone getting shot down

The first thing that came to my mind was the kaff. The kaff – The Arabic word for slap – is very common in our society. All that has to be done is to watch some Lebanese drama series. It’s usually the point where an argument between a wife and her husband goes to the next level . One can respond to a slap with a another one, with a fight, with an insult or can simply walk away. The slap isn’t as threatening as a kick or a hit, but it’s a provocative action that can give you all the attention you want from the person you slapped. And what’s interesting with the slap is that the one who got hit doesn’t usually slap back. That’s usually in the drama series, of course. (more…)

Waiting for the Electoral Law- Preemptive Moves, Retirements and Refusals

Lebanese Parties’ Stances on the Different Electoral Laws

However it should be fun imagining Berri backing the Orthodox Gathering’s Law should the Christian parties agree on it.

I’m selfishly quoting myself from a post I wrote three weeks ago. The surprise: Now Berri is backing the Orthodox Gathering’s Law, and so is Hezbollah. The Christian parties, however, did not agree on it. Two things need to be carefully noticed: The Shia duo’s preemptive move that put the FM and its Christian allies in an awkward position, and the Christian parties’ failure to agree on a Law. (more…)

Waiting for the Electoral Law- March 14’s Proposal Or the 50 Districts Law

Lebanon’s Approximate Electoral Map According to 14 March Alliance’s proposal (The fifty districts)
PS: The District borders might be inaccurate (Especially in the North (Akkar) and Bekaa (Baalback))

You can check the draft law here

The Lebanese Forces, Phalangist Party and other Christian Opposition Parties proposed in the past few days an electoral Law dividing Lebanon to 50 separate electoral constituencies. The law has two important features: The high number of electoral districts (And thus the smaller sizes of the districts), and the winner-takes all system (Or majoritarian representation). I found it very similar to the 1960 law, except for the shape and number of constituencies. The constituencies aren’t exclusively administrative ones (more…)

On Michel Sleiman’s Defensive Strategy

President Michel Sleiman proposed to Lebanese leaders Thursday a national defense strategy that would allow Hezbollah to keep its arms but place them under the command of the Lebanese Army, which would have exclusive authority to use force.

In a country where a political compromise is always taken optimistically, where political agreements, unity governments and national dialogues are always considered  beneficial even though they are most of the time useless, ineffective and unproductive, comes the latest invention: A consensual defensive strategy. This is a big step forward. But for many reasons, such a project shouldn’t cause so much enthusiasm. (more…)

Is 1.6 Billion Enough To Equip The Lebanese Army?

The government is planning to equip the army with 1.6 Billion $ that will be paid over five years. 1.6 Billion $ looks like a big number. Divide this number on 60000, then divide it on five. You’ll get a bit more than 5333 $/soldier/Year, or 445$/Soldier/Month. That’s not a big number anymore.

Let’s start with the basics. A well-equipped soldier needs a good protecting uniform. He needs  good weapons, and he needs enough ammunitions. He has a salary. He needs to eat, too.  Is 445$ per month enough to give a soldier what he needs? (more…)