Author: Moulahazat

Waiting for the Electoral Law- Future Movement’s Proposal Or The 37 Districts Law- Part I

Ahmad Fatfat (The Daily Star/Mohammad Azakir)

The number of electoral draft laws being discussed is too damn high. And to make things a bit more complicated than they are, Future Movement just added another draft law, and Ahmad Fatfat (among many other Future Movement MPs) are trying to make sure the draft reaches the electoral committee . The law is in the middle between the 1960 law and the 50 districts law the Lebanese Forces proposed in 2012.

The key feature of the law is that it uses small districts that can have a maximum of 5 MPs and can not be larger than a caza. The districts happen to primarily serve the interests of Future Movement, Jumblatt and in a way the Phalanges and (more…)

Hariri’s Civil Marriage Stance: More Than An Approval

Saad Hariri (Grace Kassab/The Daily Star)

وفتشت على توقيع من زميل محمدي على هذا المشروع الموجود في درج مكتبي، ولم أجد هذا الزميل المحمدي لتوقيع هذا المشروع معي.
(ايدي بعض النواب ترتفع وتقول أنا أوقع).
من؟ أنت؟ أنت؟ أنت؟ أريد واحداً سنياً

“And I searched for a fellow Muslim than is willing to vote for this project [Civil Marriage], and I did not find this Muslim colleague to sign this project with me.

(Hands of some deputies rise and they say I sign)

Who ? You? You? You? I want a Sunni one.”

Raymond Edde didn’t live to see it, but apparently, Saad Hariri is the “Sunni one”. And this major step from the former PM means a lot.

Going against the Mufti. The fatwa made any Muslim official voting for the law an apostate. Hariri, after making sure for the past two years that he was the representative of the Sunnis by his sectarian speeches, is now making sure that he takes down any official religious influence (like the one coming from the Grand Mufti) by opposing it since the very beginning. Also by saying no to the Mufti, It’s going to be harder from now on for M8 to call him a sectarian or a salafi supporter. Meet the newest Sunni moderate, Saad Hariri.

A National Stand. Mikati keeps describing himself as a centrist. He is always shown as a wise man, that is ready to give up anything “for the sake of Lebanon”. At first he accepts the premiership in June 2011 so that Lebanon doesn’t get destabilized, then he refuses to resign in October 2012 so that the country doesn’t sink into chaos. At both times, he goes against the majority of the Sunnis, “for the sake of Lebanon”. Meanwhile, Mikati adopts a self-dissociation policy from Syria to show himself as a neutral politician that only cares about Lebanon. Hariri understood that unless he shows himself as a Lebanese citizen, ready to sacrifice his ideals for the sake of Lebanon, he will not be able to make it as a prime minister. Hariri told Marcel Ghanem that he wouldn’t allow his children to have civil marriage, but that he would support civil marriage it because he represents the Lebanese. Hariri is now going against his sect (or at least the Grand Mufti) “for the sake of Lebanon”.

Hezbollah’s strategy against Hezbollah. Hariri understood what Hezbollah did during the electoral debate. Hezbollah knew from the beginning that Future Movement would go against the Orthodox Gathering law, so he supported it. Now Hariri is doing the same thing. He knows that Hezbollah wouldn’t accept civil marriage as a religious party, so he makes sure he’s the first to support civil marriage putting Michel Aoun’s Muslim allies in an embarrassing situation. It’s all about the timing. Notice Hezbollah’s silence.

It seems that Hariri is learning from his mistakes.

A President, a Prime Minister, a Mufti and Civil Marriage

Mufti Mohammed Rashid Qabbani (The Daily Star/Mahmoud Kheir)

ريمون اده – وسيأتي يوم، قريباً، اتمناه. نتخلص فيه نهائياً من الطائفية. واعتقد أنني بين زملائي أول من فكر بمشروع الزواج المدني وفتشت على توقيع من زميل محمدي على هذا المشروع الموجود في درج مكتبي، ولم أجد هذا الزميل المحمدي لتوقيع هذا المشروع معي.

(ايدي بعض النواب ترتفع وتقول أنا أوقع).

ريمون اده – من؟ أنت؟ أنت؟ أنت؟ أريد واحداً سنياً. إذا، أرأيت يا صبري بك أنه لا ضرر من الكلام لأن الكلام يفتح المجال أمام تبادل الآراء، وقد نكون مشينا خطوة كبيرة نحو الغاء الطائفية، طالما أن بعض الزملاء وافقوا على أن يوقعوا معي على مشروع الزواج المدني.

الرئيس كرامي – الزواج المدني ضد القرآن

ريمون اده – إذا كان هذا ضد القرآن فأنا لا أريد أن أعمل شيئاً ضد القرآن.

الرئيس كرامي – هذا ضد القرآن ولن يمشي.

ريمون اده – بعد كلام دولة الرئيس رشيد كرامي، سأبقي مشروعي في الدرج لأني لا أريد أن أعمل مشكلة.

أحمد اسبر – اسمح لي أن اصحح، الافتاء ليس وقفاً على الافندي ابن المفتي السابق، فالشرع ممكن أن يعرفه غيره من (more…)

A Closer Look At The Orthodox Gathering Law- Part III: A Political Maneuver

Lawmakers meet to discuss a new electoral law in Parliament, Beirut, on Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2013. (The Daily Star/Mahmoud Kheir)

[Part I]
[Part II]

What happened in January is quite interesting. It seems that the Orthodox Gathering law is being used not only for electoral purposes, but also for political ones.

Michel Aoun’s strategy. The OG law is the perfect electoral change for him. It gives him the chance to compete on 64 seats, and to win up to 40 of them. It makes him less dependant on his Shia allies, and permits an emergence of a Sunni opposition. But it’s not the law in itself that’s only reinforcing Michel Aoun. Michel Aoun has two goals before the elections: To separate whatever is left of M14 parties, but also to make sure the Free Patriotic Movement stays more powerful than the other parties on the Christian scene. There is no doubt that the FPM was losing popularity on the Christian side for the past few years. (more…)

A Closer Look At The Orthodox Gathering Law- Part II: Why It’s Frightful

Orthodox Gathering Law – The Reasons

[Part I]

Electoral laws should always be viewed with a pessimistic point of view. In the 1950s, we thought we had a modern electoral law (Women were eligible to vote for the first time), yet we went for a civil strife in 1958, which was partly caused by the fact that the gerrymandered districts threw major Muslim leaders outside the parliament. In the 1960s, the law was also considered to be a major breakthrough. The numbers of MPs was higher than ever, the administrative cazas became electoral constituencies, and creating relatively bigger constituencies with significant multi-sectarian representation was a huge achievement that was supposed to weaken sectarianism by making it harder for a sectarian MP to make it in mixed districts, and easier for a cross-sectarian candidate to make it by getting a significant number of votes from each sectarian group. (more…)

A Closer Look At The Orthodox Gathering Law- Part I: Why It’s Unconstitutional

I usually publish another post on the electoral law where I say if it has chances to pass. This time, I won’t publish. It’s obvious, the law won’t pass because there’s an unconditional general Muslim veto on it.

That’s me, 8 months ago. As you can notice, events evolve quite fast in this country. Who would’ve thought that the Orthodox Gathering law would be actually considered as an alternative to the 1960 law? There have been lots of talk on the issue (and even a Promotion and its Parody), so I’m going to bombard you with several posts on the Orthodox Gathering Electoral law. Just as a reminder, the OG law makes Lebanon one single district in which each sect can only vote for its coreligionists MPs under proportional representation.

I hereby leave you with the first part, an analysis on the unconstitutionality of the law.

Article 7 All Lebanese shall be equal before the law. They shall equally enjoy civil and political rights and shall equally be bound by public obligations and duties without any distinction.

One of the problems of the law is that it gives the Christians, 38%, the right to vote for 50% of the MPs. Under the 1960 law, the Christian and Muslim votes are equal in their influence. (more…)

Malikiya Battle And Lebanese Politics

In Lebanese politics, the Malikiya battle is something exceptional. Almost every politician used it at least once. Here’s two examples for the President and for a Minister. Speaking of the battle that was fought between the army and the IDF makes you feel that Lebanon was the only winner of all Arab states in the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. It shows a Republic dedicated to a Palestinian cause, a sovereign country, and a powerful army.

What Actually Happened

The Lebanese have the gift of distorting stories. A courageous stand almost became 60 years later a won war. Malikiyia was a disputed Lebanese Palestinian town. As you can notice, I did use the word “was”. (more…)