After the Ashrafieh explosion, one of the loudest accusations to the Syrian Regime came from Walid Jumblatt. Everyone expected the Jumblatti ministers to resign from the government , but until this very moment, the PSP didn’t leave the governmental coalition yet, and Hariri made an issue out of it on twitter. The moment Jumblatt leaves, Mikati will have to resign. The seven PSP MPs are enough to make a no-confidence vote successful. Walid Jumblatt is afraid of two things: a governmental vacuum, or an alternate efficient government.
What If It’s a Vacuum?
A vacuum means adjourning the 2013 elections. A caretaker government cannot constitutionally organise elections. And adjourning the elections means that Jumblatt will stay with his remaining six MPs in the parliament for a longer time. Why stay with six MPs while the 2008-1960 modified electoral law (the current one) can bring him a lot more? Speaking on a Syrian trap might be true, but the most important reason remains his electoral relevance and his parliamentary presence.
What If the Vacuum Doesn’t Last?
There is always a chance that a government might be quickly formed to avoid the repercussions of a governmental chaos, but it’s not in favor of Jumblatt. If it’s an independent government that will lead us to elections, it is highly likely that it will make a reformist electoral law based on proportionality that will destroy the Jumblatti presence in the parliament. And if it is a unity government that will be formed, the political parties will seek to destroy Jumblatt electorally and will ignore him in any compromise on an electoral law. Everyone hates the man who stands in the middle. In the government’s proposal, Jumblatt is the biggest loser. In M14’s proposal, Jumblatt is the biggest loser. In M8’s proposal, Jumblatt is the biggest loser. And Jumblatt will be the biggest loser if all the political parties agree on a law.
So why take the risk of bringing down a government that will do him nothing but good? Especially that M14 now refuses to attend the parliamentary sessions and the dialogue sessions until the government falls. The strategy is perfect and fruitful for Jumblatt. Make sure the government stays functional, so M14 doesn’t attend the parliamentary committees sessions on the electoral law. The sessions will be postponed over and over, and in the end no electoral law makes it and the current government will organise elections in 2013 with the current law. These elections are supposed to put Jumblatt back in the spotlight and give him back – at least some of the – five MPs he lost in 2011 when the Hariri government collapsed.
If the government will fall, don’t expect Jumblatt to bring it down, at least for the time being.