“Ya Shabeib, Ya Sabaya, Yalla Yalla A’al Saraya!! Yalla Yalla Al Saraya!!”

It’s amazing how few seconds can change a nation. The assassination of the General happened within seconds, but its repercussions will shape Lebanon’s political future. It’s amazing how few seconds can change a nation. The calls of Nadim Koteich happened within seconds, and their repercussions might destroy every possible chance M14 miraculously had because of what happened in the past few days.

Siniora’s Silence

Nadim Koteich made his calls while Siniora was next to him. So why didn’t Siniora stop the crowds immediately? why didn’t he ask for them to halt their movement? Because it would have been too awkward to stop Koteich who was enthusiastically singing his words while Siniora’s speech was itself inciting and taunting against Mikati. What could be the worst result after all? Deep down, he knew that if the couple of thousands succeeded to storm the Serail, every political detail would have changed in this country.

Was the Attempt worth it?

The Grand Serail’s guards were shocked. They didn’t expect the crowds to storm the Serail and move towards them and acted randomly at first. If the attack was a bit faster, it might have worked and the protesters might have actually entered the Serail. And once they control it, there’s no way back. Mikati will suffer a political humiliation and will strike back or most probably resign. The protesters, “or the insurgés” would be seen as liberators, a bit like the Bastille event in revolutionary France. But that small revolt didn’t work, and the crowds were too slow. Instead, they were instead seen like  turbulent angry mobs destroying everything on their way to the Serail. If they had quicly taken control, Mikati would have been in a difficult situation. But now, he is as strong as ever. He managed to keep them away – while his forces didn’t kill or seriously hurt any of them – and managed to picture them as “zo’oran” and thugs. He pushed them back, indirectly forced Hariri few minutes after the event failed to make a hard political statement for he could be considered to incite rebellion against the government. Mikati managed to put the Muftis (notably the National one and the Mufti of the North) on his side, got a religious umbrella and threw away any kind of new 14 March gathering nucleus. Siniora was kind of forced to contradict himself, and Nadim Koteich was practically abandoned by his political group. Now M14 had acted like M8 on May 7, except it was on a smaller localised influential place, and unlike M8, they failed. The lack of organisation and spontaneity of the event might have been the reason. The spontaneity of Nadim Koteich…

What If He Kept His Silence?

If only he waited few hours, if only Koteich had waited for a popular gathering like M14, Mikati’s government was probably going to collapse. But now the public opinion has a still picture that will haunt 14M for the coming months. The militant failing strategy of the event ruined the peaceful character of protests that were done by M14 for years. It seems as if M14 finally had the chance of a political comeback they were asking for months, and they ruined it. They blew it with the chaos they did, with the Syrian Opposition Flags, with the islamic black flags – that happen to be similar to the Al Qaeda ones – and They blew it with the attempt to storm the government building, and most importantly, the failure of their attack.

Mikati wanted an alibi to buy time, and they gave him a strong one. Yesterday, Mikati won on the ground and in the streets. Yesterday, Mikati was also politically victorious. Two days ago, Mikati was weaker than ever. Today, he is the strongest man in the Lebanese Republic.

Note: My first two sentences were taken from the previous post.