Lebanese Politics

The Unusual Pursuit

Today is Sunday, September 9, 2012. On August 15, the Mikdad clan started an abduction of Syrian and Turkish Nationals. Between August 15 and September 7, the army and ISF didn’t do anything  to free the hostages. They knew -Everyone did as they appeared in live press conferences- who were the kidnappers, what was their manpower, where they met, at what hour, what they thought, what they planned. But no one did anything. (more…)

Facebook, Campaigns, Pages…and Politicians

By the time I’m writing, there are 1524080 Facebook accounts in Lebanon. Out of these persons, 1101840 are 21 and older. By removing fake profiles, accounts with incorrect birthdays, accounts that are owned by Lebanese (and not foreigners), and accounts that are rarely used, we’ll probably get a number close to a million.

Back in 2009, the electoral body was made out of 3257407 voters. Let’s maximize the number for 2013 and make it four million eligible voters. Let’s also higher the percentage of people who will actually go and cast a ballot and make it 55%. That makes 2.2 million Lebanese voters in 2013. 1 out of 2.2 million is equal to 45%.

In a nutshell, 45% of the Lebanese who will vote in 2013 have Facebook accounts. I will make the assumption that 75% of the Lebanese on Facebook will log in at least once in the next 9 months. That makes 33% of the voting population. (more…)

On The Syrian Ambassador’s Expulsion

The PSP and M14 were demonstrating in the past few days in an attempt to pressure the Lebanese government to send the Syrian ambassador back to Damascus. Ironically enough, the presence of the Syrian ambassador in Lebanon was one of M14’s winning articles, if not the only one, that remains 4 years later after its mise en place intact in the Doha agreement of 2008. (more…)

Michel Samaha And The Acquittal Of Hezbollah?

مخبر: الحزب ما معو خبر بالموضوع؟

سماحة: عدة إيماءات نفي قاطعة

Translation:

Informer: Does the party knows?

Samaha: Several denying gestures.

While reading the leaked interrogation transcripts published by Al-Joumhouria (See here, here, here, here and here), these sentences caught my attention. Of course, the whole plot is worth talking about, but I’m going to focus on these two phrases. (more…)

The Kidnapping Game
Hassan al-Mikdad in the custody of the Free Syrian Army

Hassan al-Mikdad in the custody of the Free Syrian Army

They weren’t human or inhuman. They were nonhuman.

That’s how Jean-Paul Kauffman quoted his co-detained in captivity Michel Seurat, who was abducted and died in captivity during the Lebanese Civil War.

It seems that  the Hostages War of the eighties resumed. But this time, the Americans and Europeans are replaced by Qataris, Turks and Syrians. This time, the abductions (more…)

Waiting for the Electoral Law-The Cabinet Passes PR Law

Lebanon’s Electoral Map According To The Draft Law

The government just approved the electoral law after more than 2 years of talks and speculations. The parliament still needs to give the green light so the drafted electoral legislature takes effect. But for a number of reasons, that Law is clearly shaped in a way that empowers M8 and the ruling coalition.

PR in itself. Proportional representation is in itself a winning strategy for Hezbollah and Michel Aoun. Just take a look at the diagrams related to the 2009 elections.

Denying the right to vote on expatriates. The Lebanese abroad cannot vote according to the current Law. They are known to be reluctant to Hezbollah and M8, especially for the ones that are in the Americas. Silencing them in this way seems very efficient strategy to avoid any kind of bad surprises.

“A better Law”. M8 introduced the women’s quota, PR and lots of other innovations. They are counting on the support of activists for the law to pass, or at least to make M14 to look undemocratic in their efforts to turn the drafted law down.

The Constituencies’ Decoupage. In PR, the constituencies sizes (more…)