Lebanese Politics

The War Files (Part X) – The Christian Infighting Of 1985

Pakradouni, Geagea, and Hobeika in 1985

This month marks the 40th anniversary of the Lebanese Civil War that started on the 13th of April 1975. This is why I’ve decided to publish WikiLeaks cables from the war era, every day till the 13th of April. I think it would be interesting to look at things from a different point of view, and since it’s not the Lebanese who are telling the stories, I believe it offers a unique insight on the civil war. Although there are a lot more cables on WikiLeaks, I won’t republish them all in order to focus on the most relevant ones. I hope you enjoy reading them.

In the last years of the war, a lot of the battles happened between militias belonging to the same sectarian group. In today’s post, we look at some of the cables covering a period of inter-Christian fighting during the war (here, it’s between Amine Gemayel – the president, and members of the Lebanese Forces). You’ll find the names of Pakradouni, Gemayel, Michel Murr and Geagea (among others). The cables are organized chronologically.

JA’JA’S MOVEMENT COMMUNIQUE
Date: 1985 March 15, 17:45 (Friday)	Canonical ID: 85BEIRUT1645_a
Original Classification: UNCLASSIFIED	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: — Not Assigned —
To: Israel Jerusalem \| Israel Tel Aviv \|Secretary of State \| Syria Damascus

1. ON MARCH 14, SAMIR JA’JA’S FORCES, NOW CALLED THE “CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT,” ISSUED THE FOLLOWING COMMUNIQUE OUTLINING THEIR AIMS.

2. BEGIN TEXT. “THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF QUERIES LATELY ABOUT WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO THE AUTONOMOUS DECISION OF THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY, ON WHETHER THIS COMMUNITY HAD ACTUALLY LOST THE INITIATIVE, ON WHETHER SUBSISTANCE AND INSTITUTIONAL UPHEAVAL EMBODIED BY BASHIR GEMAYEL’S POLICY HAS BEEN OVERSTEPPED BY TIME AND ON WHETHER CHRISTIAN INSTITUTIONS FOR CONSULTATION AND DECISION HAVE BEEN CRIPPLED OR HAVE JUST FALLEN INTO DISUSE, THE STATEMENT SAID. “IN ANY CASE, WHAT IS THE ALTERNATIVE? THE STATE- MENT ADDED. SOME SAY IT SHOULD BE THE POLITICAL COMPROMISES UNDERWAY WHILE OTHERS SPEAK, AFTER THE FALL OF INTERNATIONAL GUARANTEES, OF REGIONAL GUARANTEES INSTEAD. WHATEVER THE CASE MAY BE, ALL THESE MATTERS CAN BE DISCUSSED. BUT WHAT IS CRYSTAL-CLEAR IS THAT THERE CAN BE NO SOLID POLITICAL SOLUTION UNLESS COUPLED WITH AN ADEQUATE BALANCE OF FORCES BEARING CLEAR-OUT FEATURES AND AN UNEQUIVOCAL POLITICAL STRATEGY TO GO ALONG WITH AN AUTONOMOUS DECISION FREED FROM ALL TRUSTEESHIPS. “THE RESTORATION OF THE DECISION AND THE SOCIAL CENTRALIZATION OF IT CAN, ALONE, PROVIDE THE PROPER FRAME FOR ANY SERIOUS DISCUSSION LIKELY TO LEAD US TO THE KIND OF PEACE ASPIRED TO, FOR WE REJECT THE PEACE RESULTING FROM SUBMITTING TO OTHER PEOPLE’S WILL. “THE CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT HAS PROVIDED THE ANSWER TO ALL THESE QUERIES. THIS MOVEMENT ACTUALLY CONSTITUTES THE ORGANIZED EXPRESSION OF THE WILL OF THE BASE OF ALL CHRISTIAN IN- STITUTIONS IN RECUPERATING THE DECISION AND THE INITIATIVE, AND THERE CANNOT BE, FROM THIS DAY FORWARD, NO RELIANCE BUT ON THE AUTONOMOUS DECISION AND NO GUARANTEE BUT THROUGH POLICIES THAT INCARNATE THIS DECISION. “FROM THIS DAY FORWARD, THE SECURITY OF THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY WILL NOT BE DEPENDING ANYMORE ON THE CHANGES OF INTERNATIONAL OR REGIONAL POLICIES AND THERE WILL BE NO POLITICAL WILL LINKED TO THE MOODS AND DISPOSITIONS THAT GOVERN POLITICAL INTERCOURSE IN THIS TORMENTED COUNTRY. “FROM THIS DAY FORWARD, THERE WILL BE NO CHRISTIAN SOCIETY WITH A CRIPPLED WILL AND KEPT DEPRIVED OF POLICYMAKING AT HOME AND ON THE REGIONAL PLANE AS WELL, AND RULED BY VIOLENT WARRING STRATEGIES. “THE BASIS FOR AN OBJECTIVE COOPERATION WITH A REALITY OF THE KIND WE HAVE DEPICTED IS CLEAR AND CAN BE DEFINED, IN BRIEF, AS FOLLOWS: “EXTREMISM CANNOT BE DETERRED OTHERWISE THAN BY STEADFASTNESS, AND HEGEMONY AND DISCRIMINATORY PHENOMENA CANNOT BE HANDLED BUT THROUGH CLEAR POLITICAL WILLS AND IDEAS AND ADEQUATE EXECUTIVE INSTRUMENTS. “ONLY WHEN THE CHRISTIAN FREEDOM OF DECISION IS RESTORED AND THE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES OF IT CLEARLY DEFINED CAN NEGOTIATION AND INTERCOURSE WITH ALL SIDES BECOME POSSIBLE, ON THE HOME FRONT AND ON THE REGIONAL LEVEL. OTHERWISE, WE WOULD BE ENGAGED INTO A DANGEROUS TURNING POINT LIKELY TO WIPE OUT WHAT IS LEFT OF OUR ENERGIES, OUR CREDIBILITY AND OUR EFFICIENCY. “THE CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT CONSIDERS THAT THE SETTING UP OF NEW BASES FOR DEALINGS AND DIALOGUE HAS BECOME AN INDISPENSIBLE PRE- REQUISITE FOR LIBERATING THE LEBANESE INDEPENDENT DECISION WHICH, ALONE, IS CAPABLE OF ALLOWING US TO FACE SUCCESSFULLY THE SECOND DECADE OF OUR BITTER STRUGGLE. TO ACHIEVE THIS, WE MUST: “FIRSTLY, RESHUFFLE THE ORGANIZATIONAL AND IN- STITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK OF THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY; “SECONDLY, REBUILD THE SOCIAL SECURITY OF THE CHRISTIANS ON NEW FOUNDATIONS BASED UPON: A) AN INSTITUTIONAL AND CENTRAL CHRISTIAN INDEPENDENT DECISION; B) A CO-ORDINATING, CONSULTATIVE AND EXECUTIVE FRAMEWORK GROUPING THE VARIOUS SOCIAL AND CHURCH LEADERSHIPS; C) ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL STRATEGIES OF A COMPLEMENTARY NATURE AIMED OVERRUNNING ALL STANDING DIFFICULTIES. AND THE MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL THIS IS THE CORRECTION OF THE STRUCTURES AS TO ENSURE THEIR ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFICIENCY; D)LEGAL INSTITUTIONS ACTUALLY PERFORMING THEIR NATIONAL OVERALL REPRESENTATIVE ROLE; E) AN ETHNIC AND CULTURAL IDENTITY WITH CLEAR- CUT FEATURES AND CULTURAL AND EDUCATIONAL BALANCED STRATEGIES. “CHRISTIAN LEBANESE, “WE ARE A PEOPLE WHOSE ENTITY IS BASED UPON RESPECT AND COMMITMENT TOWARDS ALL CAUSES INVOLVING THE FATE OF MAN OR HIS DIGNITY AND WHEREVER MAN’S LIBERTIES ARE JEOPARDIZED OR UNSECURE. “THERE CAN BE NO HAZARDS IN CHRISTIANITY BUT DECISIONS INSPIRED BY THE HOLY GOSPEL, BY JESUS-CHRIST’S OWN WORDS: SPEAK ALWAYS THE TRUTH AND BE STRAIGHT- FORWARD: NO FOR NO AND YEST FOR YES”.

END TEXT.

BARTHOLOMEW

JA’JA’S “CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT” AND RECONCILIATION EFFORTS
Date: 1985 March 15, 16:19 (Friday)	Canonical ID: 85BEIRUT1640_a
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: — Not Assigned —
To: Israel Jerusalem \| Israel Tel Aviv \|Secretary of State \| Syria Damascus

1. (U) SUMMARY. A COMMITTEE CHAIRED BY THE MARONITE PARTIARCH CONTINUES ITS EFFORTS TO RECONCILE DIFFERENCES WHICH ERUPTED ON MARCH 13 WITHIN THE LEBANESE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY BETWEEN JA’JA’S “CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT” AND PHALANGISTS LOYAL TO THE PRESIDENT. THERE HAS BEEN NO SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS SO FAR, BUT RECONCILATION EFFORTS CONTINUE.

2. (U) THE SITUATION ON THE GROUND REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WITH JA’JA’S MILITIAMEN CONTROLING MOST OF THE CHRISTIAN REGION FROM JUBAYL (BYBLOS) SOUTH TO THE DOG RIVER AND ALSO MUCH OF EAST BEIRUT ITSELF, INCLUDING ASHRAFIYAH. PHALANGE MILITIAMEN LOYAL TO THE PRESIDENT CONTROL ONLY THE METN, THE GEMAYEL FIEFDOM SITUATED BETWEEN THE AREAS HELD BY JA’JA’. ALL OF THESE AREAS REMAIN TENSE BUT CALM, EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED CLASHES BETWEEN RIVAL LF GROUPS AT DAWRA (NEAR BEIRUT PORT) ON MORNING OF MARCH 15. END SUMMARY.

3. (U) THE SEVEN-MEMBER CHRISTIAN RECONCILIATION COMMITTEE, ESTABLISHED BY THE CHRISTIAN CONCLAVE CONVOKED URGENTLY BY GEMAYEL AT THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE FOLLOWING JA’JA’S MARCH 13 UPRISING, MET FOR THE SECOND TIME IN BKERKE ON MARCH 14. AT THIS SECOND MEETING, THE RECONCILIATION COMMITTEE, WHICH IS CHAIRED BY MARONITE PARTRIARCH KHURAYSH, WAS ABLE TO MEET WITH VARIOUS LF OFFICIALS, INCLUDING FOR THE FIRST TIME JA’JA’ HIMSELF AND HIS MAIN SUPPORTERS. BESIDES THE PARTRIARCH, THE RECONCILATION COMMITTEE INCLUDES CHRISTIAN MP’S ELIAS HRAOUI, MICHEL MURR, KHATCHIG BABIKIAN, GEBRANE TOK, MIKEAL DAHER, AND KHALIL ABUHAMAD. AT THE MARCH 14 BKERKE MEETING, THEY MET WITH THE FOLLOWING MEMBERS OF THE LF COMMAND COUNCIL: SAMIR JA’JA’, ELIE HOBEIKA, TONY BRIDI, CHARLES GHOSTIN, NAOUM FARAH, ELIE ASSWAD, SAMIR TAWILE, AND FAWZI MAHFUZ. LF COMMANER FUAD ABU NADIR DID NOT ATTEND, BUT HIS PREDECESSOR, FADI FREM, DID.

4. (U) JUDGING FROM THE COMMUNIQUE ISSUED AFTER THE BKERKE MEETING, LITTLE PROGRESS WAS MADE DURING THIS FIRST ENCOUNTER WITH JA’JA’. “THE CHRISTIAN DECISON MOVEMENT,” AS JA’JA’S GROUP NOW OFFICIALLY CALLS ITSELF, REAFFIRMED ITS POLITICAL NATURE, ITS DESIRE TO AVOID VIOLENCE, AND ITS AIM OF “REINFORCING THE INDEPENDENCE AND GLOBALITY OF CHRISTIAN DECISION ACCORDING TO DEMOCRATIC RULES.” IN THE COMMUNIQUE, JA’JA’S MOVEMENT ALSO REAFFIRMED ITS RESPECT FOR EXISTING LAWS AND DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS. IT CLAIMED THAT IT WAS “PURELY AND UNIQUELY LEBANESE CHRISTIAN,” I.E., NOT ISRAELI BACKED. FOLLOWING THE MEETING, HOBEIKA CALLED FOR THE REMOVAL OF ROADBLOCKS WHICH HAVE ISOLATED CERTAIN CHRISTIAN AREAS, MOST NOTABLY THE ROADBLOCK ESTABLISHED BY LOYALIST FORCES AT THE NORTHERN EXTREMITY OF THE METN IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE DOG RIVER TUNNEL ON THE COASTAL HIGHWAY BETWEEN DUBAYYAH AND JUNNIYAH.

5. (U) FOLLOWING THE BKERKE MEETING, THE RECONCILIATION COMMITTEE REPORTEDLY TOLD PRESIDENT GEMAYEL THAT (A) JA’JA’S MOVEMENT WAS A MATTER WITHIN THE PHALANGE PARTY AND BETWEEN THAT PARTY AND THE LEBANESE FORCES AND (B) THAT JA’JA’ HAD NO INTENTION OF LEADING A COUP D’ETAT. THE RECONCILATION COMMITTEE THEN MET WITH THE PHALANGE PARTY POLITBURO.

6. (C) SIMULTANEOUSLY FOLLOWING THE BKERKE MEETING, JA’JA’ AND HIS MAJOR SUPPORTERS MET AT THE HOME OF BASHIR GEMAYEL’S WIDOW, SOLANGE, AND FORMED AN “EMERGENCY COMMITTEE” COMPOSED OF ABU NADIR, JA’JA’, HOBEIKA, FREM, BRIDI, GHOSTIN, KARIM PAKRADUNI, AND GEORGES ADWAN. SO FAR, THE PURPOSE OF THIS COMMITTEE HAS NOT BEEN ANNOUNCED BUT NAOUM FARAH (SEPTEL) CONFIRMED THAT IT IS AN EMBRYONIC POLITBURO OR COMMAND COUNCIL FOR JA’JA’S “CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT.”

7. (U) EARLIER ON MARCH 14, PRESIDENT GEMAYEL RECEIVED GENERAL MUHAMMAD KHOLI, AN EMISSARY SENT BY SYRIAN PRESIDENT ASSAD REPORTEDLY TO REAFFIRM SYRIAN SUPPORT. IT SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT THAT SYRIAN VICE PRESIDENT KHADDAM WILL RETURN TO LEBANON ON MARCH 16 TO CONTINUE THE INTERCOMMUNAL POLITICAL TALKS UNTERTAKEN LAST MARCH 9-10 AT BIKFAYYA.

8. (U) IN REACTION TO JA’JA’S CHALLENGE, DRUZE LEADER WALID JUMBLATT, SPEAKING FOR THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC FRONT, LENT SUPPORT TO THE PRESIDENCY AND VEHEMENTLY CRITICIZED JA’JA’S MOVEMENT AS “AN ISRAELI ATTEMPT TO TORPEDO THE POLITICAL ACCORD BEING DRAWN UP UNDER THE AUSPICES OF SYRIAN LEADERS.” THE NDF REITERATED ITS SUPPORT FOR THE “SYRIAN OPTION.”

9. (C) LATE NOTE: ACCORDING TO NAOUM FARAH (SEPTEL), THE “CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT” DOES,IN FACT, SUPPORT THE REOPENING OF THE DOG RIVER TUNNEL AND SEVERAL BRIDGES BLOCKED BY PHALANGE MILITIAMEN FROM THE METN LOYAL TO GEMAYEL. AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON MARCH 15, THE LATTER HAD AGREED TO REMOVE THE BLOCKADES AND TURN THE CHOKE POINTS OVER TO THE LAF.

BARTHOLOMEW

SOLVING THE CHRISTIAN CRISIS: THE PHALANGE VIEW
Date: 1985 March 18, 18:23 (Monday)	Canonical ID: 85BEIRUT1683_a
Original Classification: SECRET	Current Classification: SECRET
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: — Not Assigned —
To: Israel Tel Aviv \| Saudi Arabia Riyadh \|Secretary of State \| Syria Damascus

VIEW

1. SECRET ENTIRE TEXT.

2. SUMMARY: AMBASSADOR CALLED ON MINISTER OF PTT JOSEPH HASHEM MARCH 18. HASHEM IS A PHALANGE PARTY LEADER AND CLOSE ASSOCIATE OF PRESIDENT GEMAYEL. HE IS ON THE COMMITTEE OF THREE (WITH KARIM PAKKRADOUNI REPRESENTING THE DISSIDENTS AND MICHEL MURR AS THE THIRD MAN WITH LINKS BETWEEN BOTH SIDES) THAT HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH HAMMERING OUT A SOLUTION. HASHEM SAID HE HAD JUST LEFT A PHALANGE POLITICAL BUREAU MEETING TO MEET WITH THE AMBASSADOR AND WOULD SHORTLY BE GOING INTO A MEETING OF THE THREE-MAN COMMITTEE TO FINISH A COMMUNIQUE WHICH WOULD “REASSURE EVERYONE.” THE CHIEF ELEMENT OF THE COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE A RESTRUCTURING” OF THE PHALANGE AND THE LF WHICH WOULD GIVE THE LF DISSIDENTS MORE OF A VOICE AND MORE INDEPENDENCE. HASHEM SAID THAT THE USG HAD CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE IN THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY AND APPRECIATED WHAT THE AMBASSADOR HAD BEEN SAYING. AMBASSADOR EXPRESSED SATISFACTION WITH PROGRESS ON THE POLITICAL SOLUTION BUT NOTED IT SHOULD NOT COME AT PRICE OF WEAKENING THE POSITION OF THE PRESIDENT, OR THE COHESION OF THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY, AND THE COMMITTMENT TO REALISM AND FLEXIBILITY IN THE POLITICAL REFORM PROCESS. END SUMMARY.

3. HASHEM ARGUED THAT THERE WERE NO MAJOR POLITICAL DIFFERENCES WITH THE DISSIDENTS, WITNESS THEIR OWN CONTACTS WITH SYRIA (A REFERENCE TO PAKRADOUNI’S DISCUSSIONS WITH KHADDAM OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.) HE SAID THE PHALANGE PARTY STRUCTURE HAD NOT BEEN REVAMPED FOR TEN YEARS AND IT WAS NORMAL TO THINK OF RESTRUCTURING IT NOW IN A WAY THAT WOULD GIVE THE DISSIDENTS MORE PARTICIPATION AND POSITION, POLITICAL, MILITARY, AND FINANCIAL. THIS WAS THE FOCUSS OF THE CURRENT COMPROMISE EFFORT. THERE WOULD PROBABLY ALSO BE A “NATIONAL CHRISTIAN COUNCIL” WHICH WOULD BE A BROADENED LEBANESE FRONT REPRESENTING ALL CHRISTIAN GROUPS. IT WOULD BE ADVISORY AND NOT “PARLIAMENTARY” (AND THEREFORE WOULD NOT UNDERCUT THE PRESIDENT’S AUTHORITY OR SMACK OF AN INDEPENDENT CHRISTIAN “CANTON”.) HASHEM SAID THE CHIEF CONCERN WAS THAT THE LEBANESE FORCE MOVEMENT THREATENED TO UNDERCUT THE PRESIDENT, TRIGGER ADVERSE REACTIONS FROM THE LEBANESE MOSLEMS AND FROM SYRIA, AND UNDERMINE THE EFFORTS AT REACHING POLITICAL ACCOMODATION. HE KNEW THE USG SHARED THESE CONCERNS AND THE AMBASSADOR WAS MAKING THIS CLEAR TO “ALL SIDES.”

4. HASHEM SAID HE THOUGHT CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS HAD BEEN MADE IN THE THREE-MAN COMMITTEE. HE HAD BEEN DISCUSSING THE ISSUE JUST NOW IN THE SESSION OF THE PHALANGE POLITICAL BUREAU WHICH HE HAD LEFT TO MEET WITH THE AMBASSADOR. HE WOULD BE MEETING WITH MURR AND PAKRADOUNI UPON LEAVING THE MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR AND THOUGHT THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO REACH A COMMUNIQUE WHICH WOULD “REASSURE EVERYONE.”

5. THE AMBASSADOR SAID THAT SINCE HASHEM WAS SO WELL AWARE OF THE USG VIEWS ON THE SITUATION HE WOULD NOT REPEAT THEM IN DETAIL. HE HOPED THAT HASHEM WAS RIGHT THAT THE LF DISSIDENTS DID NOT DIFFER GREATLY FROM THE MAIN POLITICAL LINES THE PRESIDENT AND THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY WERE ON. THAT SAID, MUCH OF WHAT THEY SAID IN THE PAST, AND INDEED NOW, RAISED QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THEY WOULD SHOW THE REALISM AND FLEXIBILITY REQUIRED TO PROTECT THE NATION’S DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS STARTING WITH THE CHRISTIAN PRESIDENCY, WORK POLITICAL REFORMS WITH THE MOSLEMS, PRESERVE THE WELL-BEING OF THE CHRISTIANS, AND CONTAIN SYRIAN INFLUENCE. IF THE COMPROMISES BEING WORKED ON IN THE THREE-MAN COMMITTEE BEGAN A PROCESS WHICH WOULD UNDERCUT THESE OBJECTIVES, THEN IT WOULD MEAN A PYRRHIC VICTORY FOR THE CHRISTIANS AND FOR LEBANON.

6. HASHEM SAID THAT HE FELT THINGS WERE ON TRACT TOWARD A SOLUTION WHICH WOULD ASSURE EVERYONE (INCLUDING THE MOSLEMS AND SYRIA) THAT LEBANON’S “POLITICAL SYSTEM AND POLITICAL LINE” WILL BE MAINTAINED. HE SAID HE WAS NEVERTHELESS CONCERNED THAT SOME INDIVIDUALS AMONG THE LF DISSIDENTS ESPECIALLY IDENTIFIED WITH ISRAEL COULD OBSTRUCT THE PROCESS. HE THOUGHT THE USG COULD HELP HEAD THIS OFF BY GETTING THE RIGHT WORD TO THESE IN- DIVIDUALS AND TO THE ISRAELIS. THE AMBASSADOR REPLIED THAT HE WAS SATISFIED THAT THE ISRAELIS WERE NOT A MAJOR FACTOR IN EITHER THE GENESIS OR THE DIRECTION OF THE LF DISSIDENT MOVEMENT. DAVID KINCHE HAD YESTERDAY MADE THIS PUBLIC AND UNDERSCORED THE LIMITS OF THE ISRAELI INTEREST AND ROLE IN WHAT WAS HAPPENING INSIDE THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY. IN FACT, THE ISRAELIS HAVE NO INTEREST IN SIGNIFICANTLY “RE-ENGAGING” IN LEBANON BY PLAYING A MAJOR ROLE IN THIS FRACAS — OR ITS CONSEQUENCES. THE ISRAELIS ARE ON THEIR WAY OUT OF LEBANON, AND NOT ON THEIR WAY BACK IN (HASHEM NODDED AGREEMENT TO THIS LAST STATEMENT.)

7. HASHEM CLOSED CONVERSATION BY REFERRING TO AMBASSADOR’S UPCOMING MEETING WITH KARIM PAKRADOUNI (ANNOUNCED OVER THE LF CONTROLLED VOL.) HE REITERATED THAT THE U.S. HAS CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE IN THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY. HE, THEREFORE, THOUGHT IT IMPORTANT THAT THE AMBASSADOR MAKE CLEAR IN ANY CONTACTS WITH THE DISSIDENTS THAT THEY SHOULD NOT UNDERMINE LEBANON’S “POLITICAL SYSTEM AND POLITICAL LINE”, AND THAT THEY WILL HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OUTSIDE, FROM EITHER THE U.S. OR OTHERS IF THEY DO. THE AMBASSADOR SAID HE HAD MADE THE USG VIEW CLEAR IN ALL HIS CONTACTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO.

8. COMMENTS: HASHEM WAS OBVIOUSLY TIRED FROM THE UNENDING SERIES OF LATE-NIGHT MEETINGS THAT HE AND ALL OTHER ACTORS IN THE MELEE HAVE BEEN LIVING THROUGH. HE DID NOT APPEAR SPECIFICALLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE POLITICAL COMPROMISE THAT IS SHAPING UP, AND CERTAINLY DID NOT CONVEY THE IMAGE OF A MAN READY TO CLAIM SUCCESS IN PUTTING THE GENI BACK IN THE BOTTLE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT PAKRADOUNI HAS TO SAY IN HIS MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR LATER TODAY. END COMMENT.

BARTHOLOMEW

CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT RESPONDS TO CONTINUING SYRIA PRESSURE
Date: 1985 March 18, 14:30 (Monday)	Canonical ID: 85BEIRUT1676_a
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: — Not Assigned —
To: Israel Jerusalem \| Israel Tel Aviv \|Secretary of State \| Syria Damascus

1. CONFIDENTIAL ENTIRE TEXT.

2. THE FOCUS OF SYRIAN PRESSURE ON DISSIDENT CHRISTIANS HAS SHIFTED TO THE POLITICAL ARENA AND THE USE OF LEBANESE MUSLIM LEADERS. SYRIAN VICE PRESIDENT KHADDAM HAS CANCELLED HIS MARCH 18 VISIT TO BEIRUT. THE WEEKLY WEDNESDAY MEETING OF THE LEBANESE CABINET HAS ALSO BEEN POSTPONED BECAUSE MINISTERS JUMBLATT AND BARRI WOULD NOT ATTEND. JUMBLATT IS IN MOSCOW, WHILE BARRI CLAIMS THAT THE ROAD TO BAABDA IS UNSAFE. THE IMPLICATION IS THAT THE ROAD WILL NOT BE SAFE UNTIL THE CHRISTIAN DISSIDENTS ARE BROUGHT INTO LINE. IN A SPEECH IN MUKHTARA SUNDAY TO COMMEMORATE THE EIGHTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ASSASSINATION OF KAMEL JUMBLATT, WALID JUMBLATT URGED HIS SUPPORTERS TO REASON FOR A POSSIBLE NEW ROUND OF FIGHTING. HE THREATENED TO “BREAK THE NECKS” OF THE CHRISTIAN REBELS. AT A PRESS CONFERENCE SCHEDULED FOR LATE TODAY (3/18), BARRI IS EXPECTED TO STEP UP THE POLITICAL PRESSURE AGAINST JA’JA”S CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT (CDM).

3. IN THE FACE OF THIS CONTINUING PRESSURE, RECONCILIATION EFFORTS CONTINUE WITHIN THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY. A TRIPARTITE COMMITTEE COMPOSED OF MINISTER OF PUBLIC HEALTH JOSEPH AL-HASLEM, FORMER MINISTER AND PHALANGE POLITICAL ALLY MICHEL AL-MURR, AND CDM EMERGENCY COMMITTEE MEMBER KARIM PAKRADOUNI HAS BEEN MEETING TO DRAFT A POLITICAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE FACTIONS. L’ORIENT-LE JOUR REPORTS THAT THIS COMMITTEE HAS SUCCEEDED IN HAMMERING OUT THE OUTLINES OF AN AGREEMENT BASED ON THE FOLLOWING POINTS: – KEEPING CURRENT LEADERS IN PLACE – RESTRUCTURING THE PHALANGE PARTY – CLARIFYING RELATIONS BETWEEN THE PHALANGE AND THE LF – MAINTAINING THE AUTONOMY OF THE LF – PUSHING FOR THE RAPID CREATION OF A CHRISTIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL DETAILS OF THE AGREEMENT HAVE NOT BEEN RELEASED PENDING THE MARCH 18 MEETING OF THE PHALANGE PARTY POLITICAL BUREAU.

4. IN A MARCH 17 PRESS CONFERENCE HELD IN JOUNIEH, PAKRADOUNI TRIED TO PRESENT THE CDM IN A MANNER WHICH WOULD ALLAY SYRIAN CONCERNS. REFTEL PROVIDES THE TEXT OF THE CONFERENCE. FOLLOWING ARE THE MAJOR POINTS: A. CDM’S MAJOR PRINCIPLES ARE 1) SUPPORT FOR THE UNITY OF LEBANON AND ITS FULL LIBERATION; 2) SUPPORT FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A NEW FORMULA FOR MUSLIM-CHRISTIAN RELATIONS; AND 3) ACTION TO GUARANTEE THE SECURITY OF THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY. B. CDM’S “UPPERMOST OBJECTIVE” IS THE SPEEDY ELECTION OF A NATIONAL CHRISTIAN COUNCIL TO SERVE AS A CHRISTIAN PARLIAMENT. C. CDM HAS RECEIVED NO AID FROM ISRAEL. HOWEVER, PAKRADOUNI QUALIFIED THIS DENIAL BY ADDING, “THE COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP HAS NOT YET DECIDED ITS POLICY TOWARD ISRAEL.” D. CDM DOES NOT INTEND TO HARM THE PRESIDENT OR THE PRESIDENCY. HE STATED, “WE WANT THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC TO REMAIN ABOVE PARTY AND SECTARIAN DISPUTES. WE WANT HIM TO BE THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC-OF ALL LEBANON- AND WE DO NOT WANT HIM TO BE MERELY THE PRESIDENT OF THE CHRISTIANS OR OF MILITIAS.” E. CDM IS A “COUP” WITHIN THE LF AND THE PHALANGE PARTY AIMED AT MAKING THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY MORE DEMOCRATIC. F. CDM SEEKS DIRECT MUSLIM-CHRISTIAN NEGOTIATIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH MINISTERS BARRI AND JUMBLATT, AIMING TOWARD A “PEACEFUL CO-EXISTENCE CHARTER.” G. CONTACTS WITH THE SYRIANS WILL CONTINUE. PAKRADOUNI WILL MAKE A THIRD CALL TO SYRIAN VP KHADDAM. FURTHER, HE STATED THAT HIS “COMMUNICATIONS WITH SYRIAN OFFICIALS PERMIT ME TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE NO SYRIAN INCURSION INTO OUR AREAS.” H. CDM OPPOSES THE REMOVAL OF THE BARBARA CHECKPOINT.

5. COMMENT: IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE CDM ORIGINALLY CRITICIZED PRESIDENT GEMAYEL FOR DEALING WITH THE SYRIANS AND FOR MAKING CONCESSIONS AS PRESIDENT THAT HE WOULD NOT HAVE MADE AS A STRICTLY CHRISTIAN LEADER. NOW, FACED WITH THE POLITICAL REALITIES OF THEIR SITUATION, THE CDM LEADERSHIP IS BOTH DEALING DIRECTLY WITH THE SYRIANS AND ENCOURAGING PRESIDENT GEMAYEL TO REMAIN ABOVE THE SECTARIAN FRAY. END COMMENT.

6. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION HAS ALSO SURFACED CONCERNING THE STATUS OF TITULAR LF COMMANDER FUAD ABU NADER. IN HIS PRESS CONFERENCE, PAKRADOUNI ASSERTED THAT, “FUAD ABU NADER IS STILL THE COMMANDER OF THE LEBANESE FORCES. HE HAS SUPPORTED IN AN OFFICIAL STATEMENT THE POLICY OF THE UPRISING WITHIN THE LEBANESE FORCES. A TEMPORARY COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP CALLED THE ‘EMERGENCY COMMITTEE’ HAS BEEN FORMED. WE WILL SOON ANNOUNCE A NEW LEADERSHIP FOR THIS COMMITTEE.” ABU NADER IS THUS STILL FUNCTIONING AS A LEADER OF THE LF, THOUGH THE DEGREE OF HIS PRESENT INFLUENCE AND HIS FUTURE PROSPECTS REMAIN UNCLEAR.

BARTHOLOMEW

JA’JA’-PHALANGE STALEMATE DRAGGING OUT
Date: 1985 March 30, 08:31 (Saturday)	Canonical ID: 85BEIRUT1952_a
Original Classification: SECRET	Current Classification: SECRET
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: — Not Assigned —
To: EUCOM VAIHINGEN GE \| Israel Tel Aviv \| Secretary of State \| Syria Damascus

1. S-ENTIRE TEXT.

2. PHALANGE POLITBURO MEMBER ALFRED MAHDI, WHO REMAINS PERSONALLY CLOSE TU JA’JA’, 29 MARCH PROVIDED CHARGE WHAT WE SENSE IS ACCURATE WRAP-UP OF CURRENT STATE OF PLAY BETWEEN JA’JA’ FORCES AND PHALANGE.

3. MAHDI SAID CURRENT INTERMINABLE DISCUSSIONS ABOUT REORGANIZED PHALANGE PARTY, ENLARGED LEBANESE FRONT, AND NEW CHRISTIAN COUNCIL REPRESENT DESIRE OF BOTH CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT (CDM) AND PHALANGE TO STRING OUT NEGOTIATIONS.

4. PHALANGE SEES TIME AS BEING ON ITS SIDE AS IT ATTEMPT TO EXPLOIT DISAFFECTION AND SPLITS IN CDM RESULTING FROM GROWING AWARENESS OF LACK OF SPECIFIC REALISTIC POLICIES AND OF DANGERS CDM HAS CREATED OF SYRIAN INTERVENTION AND WEAKENED CHRISTIAN UNIT.

5. CDM SEES TIME ON ITS SIDE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO SEDUCE REMAINING GEMAYEL BACKERS AMONG LF IN METN, TO REASSURE SYRIANS WHILE OPENING UP DIRECT CONTACT WITH THEM (NUMEROUS SOURCES REPORT HOBEIKA HAS REGULAR CONTACT WITH RIFFAT), AND TO STRENGTHEN ITS APPEAL AT GRASSROOTS LEVEL. (WITNESS JA’JA’S SFEECH TO STUDENTS BEIRUT).

6. MAHDI BELIEVES THAT TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR THIS SPARRING AND STALLING AND THAT TWO SIDES MUST NOW BEGIN TO GRAPPLE WITH REAL PROBLEMS AND SEEK GENUINE SOLUTIONS. HE SAID THAT ALTHOUGH HE HAS NOT SEEN GEMAYEL SINCE MARCH 14, HE BELIEVES GEMAYEL SHARES HIS VIEW THAT TWO SIDES MUST SERIOUSLY PURSUE RESOLUTION OF THEIR DIFFERENCES. IF NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE TO DRAG ON UNCONCLUSIVELY, MAHDI SAID, ALL DANGERS PREDICTED BY BOTH SIDES WILL COME TRUE — SYRIAN INTERVENTION, WEAKENED AND DIVIDED CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY, SHARP MUSLIM REACTION, ETC. IN ADDITION, MAHDI SAID INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS SITUATION IN SOUTH, CUTTING OFF OF NORTH, AND DEGRADATION OF SECURITY IN WEST BEIRUT, CREATES BACKDROP OF EVENTS WHICH REQUIRES THAT RESOLUTION OF THIS INTERNAL CHRISTIAN QUARREL COME RAPIDLY.

7. COMMENT: MAHDI’S COMMENTS EXPLAIN IN PART LIMITED PROGRESS MURR/HASHIM/PAKRADUNI COMMITTEE HAS MADE IN LAST WEEK, AND OFFER LITTLE OPTIMISM FOR NEAR TERM PROGRESS.

LYNE

LEBANESE FORCES FINANCES
Date: 1985 April 4, 14:34 (Thursday)	Canonical ID: 85BEIRUT2048_a
Original Classification: SECRET	Current Classification: SECRET
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: — Not Assigned —
To: Israel Tel Aviv \| Secretary of State \|Syria Damascus

1. S-ENTIRE TEXT.

2. LEBANESE FORCES OFFICIAL WHO REMAINS LOYAL TO DEPOSED CHIEF FUAD ABU NADER CONTENDS THAT PART OF REBEL LEADER JA’JA’S APPEAL TO RANK AND FILE IS HIS PROMISES THAT ECONOMY MOVES INTRODUCED BY ABU NADER WOULD END. HE OBSERVES, HOWEVER, THAT PROMISES WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR JA’JA’ TO KEEP.

3. ACCORDING TO THIS OFFICIAL, LF OPERATING EXPENSES ALONE AMOUNT TO 26 MILLION POUNDS A MONTH, MOSTLY STRAIGHT SALARY PAYMENTS. THIS FIGURE PROVIDED NOTHING FOR AMMUNITION REPLACEMENT (BADLY NEEDED), SPARE PARTS FOR EQUIPMENT (BADLY NEEDED — ACCORDING TO OFFICIAL LF TANKS COULDN’T MOVE INTO ACTION NOW WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT REPAIR), UNIFORMS,TRAINING, ETC.

4. OFFICIAL SAID INCOME SIDE WILL PRESENT JA’JA’ WITH DIFFICULT PROBLEM, BEFORE UPRISING, OFFICIAL SAID,INCOME

5. OFFICIAL NOTED THAT LF HAD RE-OPENED NIGHT OPERATIONS AT FIFTH BASIN AT BEIRUT PORT TWELVE DAYS BEFORE UPRISING BECAUSE OF NEED FOR FUNDS, SO JA’JA’ WILL CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM THIS SOURCE. ON OTHER HAND, HE SAID, WITH SYRIANS OPENING ROADBLOCK AT MADFOUN BRIDGE, LF REVENUES FROM BARBARA CHECKPOINT HAVE DISAPPEARED; HE OPINED THAT JA’JA’ MIGHT GO AS FAR AS TO OFFER UP CLOSING OF BARBARAH CHECKPOINT AS PEACE OFFERING TO SYRIA NOW THAT SYRIAN ACTION HAS MADE IT FINANCIALLY IRRELEVANT. EVEN ASSUMING LF TIGHTENS UP TAXATION IN AREAS UNDER ITS CONTROL AND PERHAPS EXPAND FIFTH BASIN OPERATIONS, IT WILL STILL LEAVE THEM, HE ESTIMATED, MINIMUM OF 6 MILLION POUNDS SHORT EACH MONTH.

6. OFFICIAL OBSERVED THAT EFFECTIVENESS OF DEA OPERATIONS MADE EXPORTATION OF HASHISH AN UNPROFITABLE OPTION.

7. ANOTHER OPTION WOULD BE CONTRIBUTIONS BY KEY LF REBEL FINANCIAL ANGELS; HE MENTIONED SPECIFICALLY PIERRE ASHKAR AND MICHEL MURR BUT HE QUESTIONED HOW LONG THEY WOULD WANT TO PICK UP THE DIFFERENCE. REMAINING OPTION WOULD BE ONE LF WAS MOVING TOWARD BEFORE UPRISING: COMBINATION OF ECONOMY MOVES AND OF SELLING MILITARY RESOURCES ON CIVILIAN ECONOMY. MOVES IN THAT DIRECTION HAD BEGUN PRIOR TO MARCH 12 UPRISING, SPECIFICALLY IN COMPUTER AREA, WHERE OFFICIAL SAID LF HAS MOST SOPHISTICATED OPERATION IN COUNTRY; AND IN VEHICLE MAINTENANCE.

BARTHOLOMEW

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Israeli Defense Force (IDF) soldiers control 19 March 1985 a Shiite civilian at Kasmyah bridge after IDF evacuated in February about 500 sq km around Sidon (Saida), to the Litani river area, near Nabatiyah

19 March 1985: Israeli Defense Force (IDF) soldiers control a Shiite civilian at Kasmyah bridge after IDF evacuated in February about 500 sq km around Sidon (Saida), to the Litani river area, near Nabatiyah

When the Israeli army started retreating towards the security zone after the 1982 invasion, Lebanese militias fought to fill the vacancy Israel left behind. Today’s post is made of cables covering that period of time. The cables are organized chronologically.

FURTHER DETERIORATION IN SOUTH LEBANON
Date: 1985 April 1, 11:50 (Monday)	Canonical ID: 85BEIRUT1974_a
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: — Not Assigned —
To: Israel Tel Aviv \| Secretary of State \|Syria Damascus

1. (U) SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION. HEAVY FIGHTING IN THE SIDON AREA CONTINUED ON MARCH 30-31 CAUSING NUMEROUS CASUALTIES. ACCORDING TO MOST REPORTS REACHING BEIRUT, THE FIGHTING, WHICH FOLLOWS RECENT LF-LAF CLASHES IN THE AREA (REFTEL), INCLUDED THE STRONG, DIRECT INVOLVEMENT OF ARMED PALESTINIAN ELEMENTS FOR THE FIRST TIME.

2. (U) WIDELY PORTRAYED HERE AS PART OF AN ISRAELI PLAN TO REDISTRIBUTE THE POPULATION OF SOUTH LEBANON AND TO FORM A PREDOMINANTLY CHRISTIAN BORDER SECURITY STRIP, THE CLASHES IN SIDON HAVE PREOCCUPIED LEBANESE GOVERNMENTAL, POLITICAL, AND RELIGIOUS LEADERS OVER THE WEEKEND. PRIME MINISTER KARAMI CALLED INDIRECTLY ON THE U.S. TO USE ITS INFLUENCE TO HALT THE ALLEGED ISRAELI PLAN. SYRIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE CHIEF GENERAL KHOLI IS EXPECTED IN BEIRUT TODAY, APRIL 1, TO DISCUSS RECENT POLITICAL AND SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS WITH PRESIDENT GEMAYEL. END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION.

2. (U) FIGHTING INTENSIFIED IN THE SIDON AREA ON MARCH 30-31 BETWEEN LF MILITIAMEN AND LAF UNITS. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, HOWEVER, THE LAF’S ROLE WAS ECLIPSED WHEN PALESTINIAN UNITS BASED IN THE REFUGEE CAMPS TOOK A STRONG, ACTIVE ROLE IN THE FIGHTING AGAINST THE LF.

3. U) ON MARCH 30, THE LF REPORTEDLY BEGAN HEAVY, ALMOST CONTINUOUS SHELLING OF THE REFUGEE CAMPS AT AYN AL-HILWAH AND MIYAH MIYAH AND OF OTHER RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN SIDON. PRO-ARAFAT PALESTINIAN FORCES, BACKED BY OTHER MUSLIM MILITIAS, RESPONDED AND HEAVY FIGHTING ENSUED. SIMULTANEOUSLY, CLASHES BETWEEN THE LF AND LAF WERE REPORTED ALONG A LINE INCLUDING KANAYA, KAHAYA, HLALIYAH, AND BRAMIYAH. THERE ARE ALSO REPORTS OF AMAL UNITS TAKING PART IN THE FIGHTING IN SIDON, BUT WE HAVE NO DETAILED INFORMATION. THE MARCH 30 CASUALTY TOLL AMOUNTED TO TWENTY-EIGHT KILLED AND FORTY WOUNDED, MOSTLY CIVILIANS.

4. (U) ON MARCH 31, THE FIGHTING CONTINUED, WITH THE MOST INTENSIVE ACTION CENTERED AROUND THE AYN AL-HILWAH REFUGEE CAMP. ACCORDING TO FOREIGN CORRESPONDENTS CITED IN THE LOCAL PRESS, THE CAMP CAME UNDER HEAVY SHELLING FROM LF ARTILLERY POSITIONS NEAR JEZZIN. HEAVY FIGHTING WAS ALSO REPORTED BETWEEN LF UNITS AND LAF POSITONS ON MAR ELIAS HILL. THE MARCH 31 CASUALTY TOLL AMOUNTED TO FIVE KILLED AND FIFTEEN WOUNDED. THERE ARE UNCONFIRMED REPORTS OF PALESTINIAN CIVILIANS FLEEING THE CAMPS FOR SIDON ITSELF AND OF SUNNI AND CHRISTIAN RESIDENTS OF SIDON MOVING NORTHWARD TO BEIRUT.

5. (U) ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH, ISRAELI UNITS REPORTEDLY CROSSED BACK INTO PREVIOUSLY EVACUATED TERRITORY FOR THE SIXTH TIME AS PART OF A DRAGNET OPERATION IN THE IQLIM AL-TIFFAH REGION SOUTH OF SIDON. LENGTHY LOCAL PRESS REPORTS INDICATE TWENTY-THREE PERSONS KILLED AND FORTY-FIVE PERSONS WOUNDED, MOSTLY IN THE VILLAGE OF JBAA.

6. (LOU) IN THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT FIGHTING OVER THE WEEKEND, LAF UNITS EXCHANGED ARTILLERY FIRE WITH PSP MILITIAMEN ON MARCH 30 ALONG THE SUQ AL-GHARB/AYTAT RIDGELINE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF BEIRUT. TWO LAF SOLDIERS WERE REPORTEDLY KILLED. WHEN THE SHELLING SPILLED OVER ONTO THE EAST-BEIRUT RESIDENTIAL AREAS OF BAABDA, HAZIMIYAH, AND MKALLAS, SEVERAL SHELLS HIT JUST OUTSIDE THE PERIMETER OF THE AMBASSADOR’S RESIDENCE AT YARZE. EMBASSY PERSONNEL HAD ALREADY TAKEN REFUGE IN THE SHELTER.

7. (U) EFFORTS TO HALT THE DETERIORATION OF THE SITUATION IN SOUTH LEBANON PREOCCUPIED LEBANESE GOVERNMENTAL, POLITICAL, AND RELIGIOUS LEADERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, FOLLOWING A MEETING ON MARCH 30, PRESIDENT GEMAYEL, PRIME MINISTER KARAMI, AND SENIOR LAF OFFICERS DECIDED TO REINFORCE LEBANESE ARMY UNITS IN THE SOUTH, IN PART WITH EQUIPMENT NOW BEING DELIVERED FROM THE U.S. MINISTERS HOSS AND BARRI, WHO TRAVELED TO DAMASCUS MARCH 31 TO MEET WITH SARG VICE PRESIDENT KHADDAM AND DRUZE LEADER JUMBLATT, HAVE DEMANDED SUCH A REINFORCEMENT OF LAF UNITS IN THE SOUTH FOR SEVERAL WEEKS.

8. (U) FOLLOWING THE MARCH 30 MEETING, PRIME MINISTER KARAMI ACCUSED ISRAEL OF PROVOKING THE VIOLENCE IN SIDON “IN THE HOPE OF OBTAINING A NEW DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION (ON A CONFESSIONAL BASIS) AND EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A BUFFER ZONE (ALONG THE BORDER STRIP).” STATING THAT THE SITUATION IN THE SOUTH MUST BE UNDERSTOOD IN THE REGIONAL CONTEXT, KARAMI SAID THAT THE GOL WOULD UNDERTAKE CONTACTS WITH OTHER GOVERNMENTS WHICH HAVE INFLUENCE IN THE REGION.

9. (U) NOTING THAT “THE UNITED STATES IN PARTICULAR CAN ACT TO CLEAN UP THE SITUATION,” KARAMI ADDED THAT THE GOL HAD NOT/NOT BEEN INFORMED OF A VISIT TO LEBANON BY ASSISTANT SECRETARY MURPHY DURING THE LATTER’S FORTHCOMING TRIP TO THE MIDDLE EAST.

10. (U) SHIITE AMAL LEADER NABIH BARRI DENOUNCED THE INTENSIFICATION OF FIGHTING IN SIDON IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WORDS AS KARAMI. “ISRAEL,” HE SAID, “AIMS AT PROVOKING A NEW DEMOGRAPHIC REDISTRIBUTION AND TO RESHAPE ITS FRONTIER WITH LEBANON SO THAT THE CHRISTIANS IN SIDON AND JEZZIN ARE MOVED TO THE BORDER ZONE AND THAT THE MUSLIMS, MORE PRECISELY THE SHIITES, ARE FORCED BACK INTO THE INTERIOR OF LEBANON.” “IT IS IN THIS CONTEXT,” BARRI ADDED, “THAT ONE CAN UNDERSTAND THE RECENT EVENTS IN SIDON AND ORDERS WHICH WERE GIVEN TO THE ‘INTIFADA’ (I.E., JA’JA’S CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT)…”

11. (U) IN A MARCH 31 TELEPHONE CONVERSATION WITH SARG PRESIDENT ASSAD, PRESIDENT GEMAYEL AGREED TO RECEIVE A SYRIAN ENVOY TO DISCUSS THE SITUATION IN SIDON AS WELL AS RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY. SYRIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE CHIEF GENERAL KHOLI IS EXPECTED TO MEET WITH GEMAYEL TODAY, APRIL 1.

12. (C) COMMENT. THE CONTRADICTORY AND TENDENTIOUS REPORTS REACHING BEIRUT ABOUT THE FIGHTING IN SIDON ARE DIFFICULT TO UNRAVEL AND EVALUATE. PALESTINIAN UNITS DO APPEAR TO BE TAKING AN ACTIVE PART IN THE CLASHES. IN SHORT, THE SITUATION IN THE SOUTH APPEARS TO BE DETERIORATING, AS EVERYONE HAD FEARED, INTO A HEIGHTENED LEBANESE/ISRAELI CONFLICT AND BITTER INTERCOMMUNAL CLASHES WITH PALESTINIAN INVOLVEMENT.

LYNE

SOUTH LEBANON: THE ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL CONTINUES WHILE NEW EFFORTS ARE MADE TO BRING PEACE TO SIDON
Date: 1985 April 22, 14:48 (Monday)	Canonical ID: 85BEIRUT2370_a
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: — Not Assigned —
To: Israel Tel Aviv \| Jordan Amman \| Saudi Arabia Riyadh \| Secretary of State \|Syria Damascus

1. CONFIDENTIAL – ENTIRE TEXT.

2. ISRAEL REPORTEDLY CONTINUES CONTACTS AIMED AT USING INDIGENOUS FORCES TO MAINTAIN BORDER SECURITY AFTER THE JUNE 1 WITHDRAWAL OF ISRAELI TROOPS. ACCORDING TO LOCAL PRESS, THE ISRAELIS HAVE REACHED A COMPROMISE WITH THE DRUZE OF THE HASBAYA REGION WHEREBY THE DRUZE INHABITANTS WILL FORM A “CIVIL GUARD,” BUT WILL NOT HAVE DIRECT TIES TO THE ASL OR ANY OTHER ISRAELI-BACKED ORGANIZATION. IF THESE REPORTS ARE TRUE, THIS DEAL REPRESENTS A VICTORY FOR THE LOCAL DRUZE WHO HAVE ALLEGEDLY BEEN RESISTING ISRAELI PRESSURE (WHICH INCLUDED A BLOCKADE OF THE VILLAGES OF AKA KAMA AND MIMAS) TO RECRUIT THEM INTO THE ASL.

3. IN THE JAZZIN AREA, LOCAL PRESS REPORTS THAT EFFORTS ARE UNDERWAY TO ESTABLISH A 300-400 MAN CHRISTIAN FORCE INDEPENDENT OF THE ASL. THESE REPORTS SUPPORT OTHER INFORMATION THE EMBASSY HAS RECEIVED CONCERNING A DEAL ALLEGEDLY STRUCK BETWEEN WALID JUMBLATT AND THE CHRISTIANS OF JAZZIN CONCERNING SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS FOR JAZZIN AND THE IQLIM AL-KHARRUB. DETAILS WERE REPORTEDLY HAMMERED OUT AT A MEETING HELD LAST WEEK IN MUKHTARA ATTENDED BY JUMBLATT, JEAN AZIZ, JAZZIN DEPUTY EDMOND RIZK, AND AN UNIDENTIFIED ISRAELI OFFICER. AT THIS MEETING, JUMBLATT REPORTEDLY ACCEPTED THE FORMATION OF THIS CHRISTIAN FORCE, PROVIDED IT HAD NO OVERT CONNECTION WITH THE ASL; HE ALSO APPARENTLY SAID HE WOULD NOT ATTACK THE CHRISTIANS OF THE JAZZIN AREA OR THE IQLIM AL-KHARRUB AND OFFERED TO OPEN THE CHUF ROAD TO CHRISTIAN TRAFFIC IF THE COASTAL ROADS WERE CLOSED TO THEM. IN RETURN, JUMBLATT ASKED FOR AN OPEN ROAD FROM THE CHUF TO THE DRUZE VILLAGES OF HASBAYA AND ROSHAYYA IN THE SOUTH, AND REMOVAL OF LF ELEMENTS FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA.

4. IN SIDON, THE TWO AXES OF CONFRONTATION REMAINED ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE FRONT PITS LF FIGHTERS IN THE VILLAGES OF ABRA, HLALIYAH, AND QAYYA (SOUTHEAST OF SIDON) AGAINST SUNNI AND PALESTINIAN MILITIAMEN SUPPORTED BY THE LAF’S SUNNI TAWEED 98TH BRIGADE FROM TRIPOLI LOCATED ON THE HILL OF MAR ELIAS. ON THE OTHER FRONT, ALSO LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SUBURBS, LF MILITIAMEN BASED IN THE VILLAGES OF MIYAH MIYAH, MAGHDUSHEH, AND DARB AL-SIM CONFRONT THE PALESTINIAN CAMPS OF MIYAH MIYAH AND AYN AL-HILWAH. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOR THE FIRST TIME, 155 MM SHELLS FELL ON THE LAF’S ZGHAYB BARRACKS IN CENTRAL SIDON. LOCAL PRESS REPORTS CASUALTY FIGURES AS HIGH AS 26 KILLED AND WOUNDED IN WEEKEND FIGHTING.

5. ON THE POLITICAL FRONT, SIDON DEPUTY NAZIH BIZRI, CLAIMING TO HAVE LOST ANY HOPE FOR LAF REINFORCEMENT OR LF WITHDRAWAL, CALLED APRIL 19 ON THE CITIZENS OF SIDON TO TAKE UP ARMS IN THEIR OWN DEFENSE. USAMA SAAD, VP OF THE “NASSERITE POPULAR ORGANIZATION,” WHO HAD ACCOMPANIED BIZRI TO DAMASCUS EARLIER IN THE WEEK, ALSO CALLED UPON THE AREA’S CHRISTIAN VILLAGERS “TO FORCE THE LF FROM THEIR VILLAGES SO THEY DON’T BECOME THE TARGETS OF A MILITARY SOLUTION.”

6. IN CONTRAST TO THE INFLAMMATORY RHETORIC EMANATING FROM SIDON’S MUSLIMS, THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY SEEMS INTENT ON DAMPING DOWN THE LEVEL OF TENSION. FOLLOWING A VISIT TO ISRAEL (REF B) DURING WHICH HE WAS REPORTEDLY WARNED BY THE ISRAELIS NOT TO MAKE TROUBLE IN SIDON, AND AFTER A WEEKEND OF CONSULTATIONS WITH FORMER PRESIDENT CAMILLE CHAMOUN, SAMIR JA’JA’ HELD A MORNING PRESS CONFERENCE ON APRIL 22 TO ANNOUNCE LF MEASURES AIMED AT DEFUSING THE CRISIS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE TEXT OF JA’JA’S STATEMENT, WE UNDERSTAND THESE TO INCLUDE: — A. A UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE EFFECTIVE 1600 LOCAL TIME ON APRIL 22; — B. A WITHDRAWAL OF NON-INDIGENOUS LF FORCES FROM THE SIDON AREA BEGINNING 1100 LOCAL TIME ON APRIL 23. THIS WITHDRAWAL IS IN ORDER TO “GIVE THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT A CHANCE TO UNDERTAKE ITS RESPONSIBILITIES.” (MILITIAMEN NATIVE TO THE AREA WILL REMAIN); — C. A CALL FOR THE PRESIDENT, PM, GOVERNMENT, AND LAF COMMAND TO ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR SECURITY VIOLATIONS. JA’JA’ FURTHER STATED HIS HOPE THAT THESE MEASURES WOULD CONSTITUTE A FIRST STEP TOWARD A SETTLEMENT AND CALL FORTH PEACE INITIATIVES FROM THE OTHER PARTIES INVOLVED. HE INVITED JOURNALISTS TO WITNESS TOMORROW’S WITHDRAWAL.

7. ON THE MILITARY LEVEL, THE QUADRIPARTITE MILITARY COMMISSION IS REPORTED BY THE PRESS TO BE WORKING FOR THE DEPLOYMENT OF AN ADDITIONAL LAF UNIT TO SIDON. NO DETAILS OF ARMAMENT OR CONFESSIONAL COMPOSITION ARE AVAILABLE. IN ANY EVENT, PAST HISTORY INDICATES THAT IT CANNOT BE DEPLOYED IN THE ABSENCE OF A PRIOR POLITICAL AGREEMENT.

8. ONE USUALLY WELL INFORMED LOCAL PRESS SOURCE TELLS US THAT SYRIA IS TRYING TO PUT IN PLACE A SCENARIO WHEREBY SUNNIS OF SIDON CAN CLAIM VICTORY OVER THE LF AS A SOP FOR RECENT SUNNI LOSSES IN WEST BEIRUT. THE PRICE OF SUCH A DEAL, HOWEVER, IS ALLEGED TO BE RENUNCIATION BY SUNNIS OF THEIR LINKS WITH PRO-ARAFAT PLO PALESTINIANS AND ACCEPTANCE OF RELIANCE UPON DRUZE AND ABU MUSA PALESTINIANS IN THEIR STEAD. THE ALTERNA- TIVE, ACCORDING TO THIS SOURCE, IS FOR DRUZE, ABU MUSA MILITIA, AND AMAL TO ADMINISTER THE SAME LESSON IN SIDON THAT THEY DID IN WEST BEIRUT.

9. IN TYRE, ISRAELI FORCES CONTINUE THEIR PREPARATIONS FOR WITHDRAWAL. IDF SPOKESMEN HAVE ANNOUNCED A WITHDRAWAL DATE OF APRIL 24, BUT ACTIVITIES ON THE GROUND INDICATE IT MAY OCCUR UP TO 24 HOURS EARLIER. ALL BUILDINGS AND INSTALLATIONS OF POTENTIAL USE TO THE RESISTANCE ARE BEING DYNAMITED, THERE IS AS YET NO WORD ON POSSIBLE LAF DEPLOYMENT AFTER THE ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL.

BARTHOLOMEW

LF COMPLETES WITHDRAWAL FROM SIDON, AND ISRAELIS LEAVE THE WEST BIQA’
Date: 1985 April 25, 14:13 (Thursday)	Canonical ID: 85BEIRUT2434_a
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: — Not Assigned —
To: Israel Tel Aviv \| Jordan Amman \| Saudi Arabia Riyadh \| Secretary of State \|Syria Damascus

ISRAELIS LEAVE THE WEST BIQA’ REFERENCE: BEIRUT 2408

1.(U) LOCAL PRESS REPORTS THE COMPLETION ON APRIL 24 OF THE WITHDRAWAL OF 450 LF MILITIAMEN FROM THE SIDON AREA TO EAST BEIRUT. HOWEVER, THESE REPORTS CONTINUE, LAF UNITS HAVE STILL NOT OCCUPIED THE FORMER LF POSITIONS EAST OF THE CITY, AND SPORADIC EXCHANGES OF FIRE CONTINUE TO MAR THE CEASE-FIRE. LF MILITIAMEN NATIVE TO THE AREA ARE SAID TO REMAIN ARMED AND IN UNIFORM. SCATTERED FIGHTING WAS REPORTED ON BOTH MAIN AXES OF CONFRONTATION WITH LF FIGHTERS IN QAYAA EXCHANGING FIRE WITH THE LAF, AND PALESTINIANS FROM THE MIYAH MIYAH CAMP FIRING MORTAR ROUNDS INTO THE VILLAGE OF MIYAH MIYAH. LF OFFICIALS DENY THAT THE CHRISTIANS RETURNED FIRE, BUT THE PALESTINIANS CLAIM NINE WERE WOUNDED BY CHRISTIAN FIRE. THE CITY REMAINS TENSE.

2.(U) PRESS REPORTS ALSO DESCRIBE THE APRIL 24 ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL FROM THE WESTERN BIQA’, JABAL BARUK, AND JAZZIN. THE NEW ISRAELI FRONT LINE THUS STRETCHES FROM THE COAST EAST ALONG THE LITANI RIVER, THEN NORTHEASTERLY TO KFAR HUNA, AND EAST AGAIN TO MT. HERMON. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE REPORTEDLY DISMANTLED THEIR POSITIONS IN AND AROUND TYRE, THE ISRAELIS HAVE NOT YET LEFT THE CITY. AS THEY LEFT THE WESTERN BIQA’, THEY DROPPED LEAFLETS WARNING THE LOCAL INHABITANTS AGAINST COOPERATING WITH THE SHIA RESISTANCE FIGHTERS: “WE MUST REMIND YOU THAT THE ISRAELI FORCES WILL NOT HESITATE TO DEAL FIRMLY AND WITHOUT MERCY WITH THOSE WHO COOPERATE WITH TERRORISM.”

3.(U) OF THE NEWLY EVACUATED AREAS, ONLY THE WEST BIQA’ HAS BEEN OCCUPIED BY THE LAF, ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS. THERE, UNITS OF THE SHIA FIRST BRIGADE WERE WARMLY GREETED BY AREA RESIDENTS. PSP FORCES, HOWEVER, OCCUPIED THE STRATEGIC HILL OF JABAL BARUK, ALTHOUGH THE ISRAELIS HAD DISMANTLED THEIR INSTALLATIONS BEFORE DEPARTING. THE SITUATION IN JAZZIN, REPORTED REFTEL, REMAINS UNCLEAR.

4.(C) COMMENT. EMBASSY CONTACTS HAVE LONG INDICATED THAT PSP LEADER WALID JUMBLATT INTENDED TO OCCUPY JABAL BARUK ONCE THE ISRAELIS LEFT. IT IS UNLIKELY HE WILL BE CONVINCED TO YIELD THIS STRATEGIC POSITION TO AN LAF FORCE HE DOES NOT CONTROL. END COMMENT.

BARTHOLOMEW

FALLOUT FROM SIDON
Date: 1985 April 27, 11:37 (Saturday)	Canonical ID: 85BEIRUT2486_a
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: — Not Assigned —
To: Israel Tel Aviv \| Secretary of State \|Syria Damascus

1. C-ENTIRE TEXT.

2. CONFUSION CONTINUES ABOUT EXACT SITUATION IN VILLAGES EAST OF SIDON (REFTEL) WITH BEIRUT PARTIES PLAYING USUAL ROLES IN GREEK CHORUS ON SIDELINES. PALESTINIAN AND FUNDAMENTALIST MUSLIM FORCES APPARENTLY CONTINUE TO OCCUPY SEVEN CHRISTIAN TOWNS THEY SEIZED EAST OF SIDON. REPORTS FILTER IN ABOUT SOME 25,000 TO 75,000 CHRISTIAN REFUGEES FROM REGION FLEEING TO EITHER JEZZIN OR BEIRUT.

3. MEANWHILE, ESLEWHERE: – ASL COMMANDER LAHAD REPORTEDLY ISSUED STATEMENT 26 APRIL THREATENING TO SHELL SIDON UNLESS PALESTINIANS AND MUSLIM MILITIA CEASE OFFENSIVE. HE ALSO IS QUOTED AS WARNING LAF AGAINST SENDING TROOPS TO JEZZIN “BEFORE BRINGING THE SECURITY SITUATION IN SIDON UNDER CONTROL AND FORCING THE PALESTINIANS BACK INTO THEIR CAMPS.” – PRESIDENT GEMAYEL TELEPHONED SYRIAN PRESIDENT ASSAD TO BRIEF HIM ON DEVELOPMENTS IN SIDON; TWO LEADERS AGREED TO KEEP IN TOUCH. – CHRISTIAN RELIGIOUS LEADERS MET 26 FRIDAY AND DEPLORED SITUATION IN SIDON, CALLED ON FRIENDLY COUNTRIES (“PARTICULARLY SYRIA”), “ALL FREE NATIONS”, AND POPE TO HELP. OTHER CHRISTIAN LEADERS, LED BY CAMILLE CHAMOUN, ISSUED SIMILAR STATEMENTS – GEMAYEL, PARLIAMENT SPEAKER HUSSEINI, AND PM KARAMI MET 26 APRIL TO REVIEW SITUATION. KARAMI AFTER MEETING COMMENTED IN PART THAT RECENT ATTACKS IN SIDON WERE “REACTIONS WHICH EXPOSED OUR BROTHERS…TO WHAT HAD HAPPENED TO THEIR BROTHERS IN SIDON”, COMMENT WHICH SPARKED SHARP CHRISTIAN REACTION AGAINST WHAT THEY VIEWED AS EXAMPLE OF KARAMI’S LACK OF CONCERN FOR CHRISTIANS WOES. REMAINDER OF KARAMI’S REMARKS AND THOSE OF HUSSEINI AND OTHER MUSLIM LEADERS WERE DUTIFULLY SOLEMN. – SIDON DEPUTY NAZIH BIZRI ISSUED A STATEMENT CONGRATULATING THE INHABITANTS OF SIDON FOR THEIR, “VICTORY AGAINST THE LEBANESE FORCES AND THE AGENTS OF ISRAEL.” ACCORDING TO BIZRI, “WHAT HAS COME TO PASS IS THE WORK OF SIDONIANS,” NOT OF ARAFAT PALESTINIANS. HE CALLED THE EXODUS OF CHRISTIAN VILLAGERS AN “ISRAELI PLOT,” AND CALLED ON THE REFUGEES TO RETURN TO THEIR HOMES. – JA’JA’S CALL FOR A GENERAL STRIKE IN EAST BEIRUT FOR APRIL 27 AS A PROTEST AGAINST SIDON EVENTS, A CALL IN WHICH THE PHALANGE PARTY JOINED 26 APRIL, HAS PROVED SUCCESSFUL, WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL GAS STATIONS, BAKERIES, MOM AND POP CORNER GROCERY STORES, PHARMACIES, AND SIDEWALK NEWSTANDS OPERATING. – CHRISTIAN STUDENT DEMONSTRATORS 26 APRIL NUMBERING AN ESTIMATED 500 STUDENTS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH, MARCHED ON THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE TO CRITICIZE THE FAILURE OF LAF TO DEPLOY TO PROTECT THE VILLAGES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE LEBANESE FORCES. DELEGATIONS OF DEMONSTRATORS MET WITH LAF COMMANDER GENERAL A’OUN. THE ONLY LAF REACTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN A CALL BY GENERAL A’OUN FOR LAF SOLDIERS IN THE SIDON REGION TO REPORT TO THEIR UNITS. – ANOTHER DEMONSTRATION BY SOUTHERNERS RESIDING IN BEIRUT OCCURRED 26 APRIL ON THE AUTOSTRADE NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL, WITH DEMONSTRATORS BLOCKING ROADS, BURNING TIRES, AND FIRING IN THE AIR. OTHER DEMONSTRATIONS IN EAST BEIRUT ARE REPORTEDLY SCHEDULED FOR APRIL 27. – APPARENTLY AS THE RESULT OF AMAL LEADER BARRI WORKING WITH CHRISTIAN LEADERS, AMAL HAS REPORTEDLY DEPLOYED IN STRENGTH OUTSIDE THE CHRISTIAN VILLAGE OF MAGHDUSHAH (POP. 8000) NEAR MIYAH MIYAH TO PROVIDE PROTECTION TO THE VILLAGE AGAINST ADVANCING PALESTINIAN/MUSLIM FORCES. MAGHDUSHAH REMAINS CALM AND SECURE 27 APRIL.

4. COMMENT. ESTIMATES OF NUMBERS OF REFUGEES APPEAR EXAGGERATED, AS DO LOCAL STORIES OF “PALESTINIAN HORDES LOOTING AND BURNING.” NONETHELESS, THIS PERSPECTIVE REFLECTS DEEP CHRISTIAN ANXIETY OVER THE SIDON EVENTS. THE MAIN TARGETS FOR CHRISTIAN REACTION ARE LAF, FOR ITS FAILURE TO DEPLOY AS AGREED TO REPLACE DEPARTING LF FORCES, AND MUSLIM LEADERS FOR “FAILING TO KEEP THEIR WORD” TO PROTECT CHRISTIANS IN THE SOUTH AS AGREED ALSO AS THE PRICE OF LF PULLOUT. BARRI’S AMAL GETS GRUDGING CREDIT FOR DEPLOYING OUTSIDE MAGHDUSHAH.

5. LAF DEPLOYMENT AWAITS “POLITICAL COVER” WHICH A’OUN TRIES TO INSIST ON BEFORE ACTING. SATURDAY, APRIL 27, IS FULL OF MEETINGS, CONSULTATIONS, TRAVELS, ETC., TRYING TO SET UP BACKSTAGE ARRANGEMENTS WHICH WOULD PROVIDE SUCH COVER.

6. SOME CHRISTIANS INTERPRET THE ABSENCE OF “POLITICAL COVER” FOR LAF DEPLOYMENT AS A REFLECTION OF AN AGREEMENT TO COMPENSATE THE SUNNIS IN SIDON FOR WHAT THEY LOST IN WEST BEIRUT. THE MAIN WINNER THUS FAR, HOWEVER, APPEARS TO BE THE ARAFATI PLO, WHICH HAS EXPANDED ITS CONTROL AND STRENGTHENED ITS POSITION AROUND THE CAMPS, A RESULT WHICH PRESUMABLY WILL NOT WARM ASSAD’S HEART. 7. THE PHALANGE’S JOINING IN THE CALL FOR A GENERAL STRIKE IN PROTEST AGAINST THE SIDON EVENTS AND GOVERNMENT/LAF INACTION MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO PORTRAY BEIRUT DEMONSTRATIONS AS LF-INTIFIDA ALONE DEFENDING CHRISTIAN INTERESTS, BUT FASTER REACTION WOULD HAVE GAINED THEM MORE CREDIT.

END COMMENT.

BARTHOLOMEW

ISRAEL’S POLICY ON SOUTHERN LEBANON
Date: 1985 June 12, 16:53 (Wednesday)	Canonical ID: 85TELAVIV8792_a
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
From: Israel Tel Aviv	Markings: — Not Assigned —
To: Australia Canberra \| Denmark Copenhagen \| Finland Helsinki \| France Paris \| Italy Rome \| Jordan Amman \|Lebanon Beirut \| Netherlands The Hague \|Secretary of State \| Sweden Stockholm \|Syria Damascus \| United Kingdom London\| United Nations (New York)

1. CONFIDENTIAL – ENTIRE TEXT.

2. SUMMARY: MFA DIRECTOR GENERAL KIMCHE BRIEFED AMBAS- SADORS FROM UN SECURITY COUNCIL AND UNIFIL CONTRIBUTOR COUNTRIES JUNE 12 ON SOUTHERN LEBANON. KIMCHE REITERATED ISRAELI POLICY IN SOUTHERN LEBANON LEADING UP TO THE WITHDRAWAL, THEN EMPHASIZED THAT ISRAEL WAS NOW OUT OF LEBANON AND, THEREFORE, NO LONGER IN CONTROL. AS A RE- SULT, ALTHOUGH ISRAEL WAS TRYING TO BE HELPFUL, ISRAEL FELT THAT UNIFIL MUST WORK OUT THE PROBLEM OF THE FINNISH HOSTAGES WITH THE SLA DIRECTLY. IF ISRAEL SOUGHT TO CONTROL EVENTS AND FORCE LAHAD TO RELEASE THE FINNISH SOLDIERS, ISRAEL WOULD, IN EFFECT, BE BACK IN LEBANON. THERE WOULD BE NO MORE SLA AND LAHAD WOULD BE FINISHED. SEVERAL AMBASSADORS SAID THEIR GOVERNMENTS CONSIDER ISRAEL TO REMAIN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SAFETY OF THE UNIFIL SOLDIERS, AND MADE STRONG STATEMENTS OF PRINCIPLE AGAINST THE HOLDING OF HOSTAGES. END SUMMARY.

– 3. MFA DIRECTOR GENERAL DAVID KIMCHE INVITED THE AMBAS- SADORS AND CHARGES FROM THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL MEMBER STATES AND THE CONTRIBUTORS TO UNIFIL TO A BRIEFING JUNE 12 ON ISRAEL’S POLICY IN SOUTH LEBANON. THE BRIEFING INVITATION WAS STIMULATED BY THE PRESENT CRISIS BETWEEN UNIFIL AND THE SOUTH LEBANESE ARMY. KIMCHE SOUGHT TO PLACE THE ISRAELI REACTION TO THE CURRENT CRISIS IN THE BROAD CONTEXT OF ISRAELI POLICY.

– 4. ISRAELI POLICY ON SOUTHERN LEBANON

– ———————————-

KIMCHE OPENED BY NOTING THAT THERE IS A CABINET DECISION ON SOUTHERN LEBANON THAT CONTINUES TO BE THE BASIS OF ISRAELI ACTIONS, UNTIL THERE IS A CABINET DECISION TO CHANGE IT. THE DECISION INCLUDES THE FOLLOW- ING ELEMENTS: A) THE IDF IS REDEPLOYED ALONG THE INTER- NATIONAL FRONTIER, AND NO IDF UNITS WILL REMAIN IN LEBANON ON A REGULAR OR PERMANENT BASIS. B) THE IDF RE- TAINS FREEDOM OF ACTION AGAINST TERRORISTS BEFORE, DURING OR AFTER THEIR ACTIVITIES AGAINST ISRAEL. C) A SECURITY ZONE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED, WITH ISRAELI LIAISON WITH LOCAL FORCES WHICH ARE DEDICATED AGAINST TERRORISM. D) IF THE LOCAL FORCES ARE ATTACKED THE IDF MAY RESPOND TO PROTECT THEM.

– 5. ISRAEL’S RELATIONS WITH THE SLA

– ——————————-

KIMCHE SAID THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL HAS HELPED AND CONTINUES TO HELP THE SOUTH LEBANON (SLA), BUT NO LONGER CONTROLS THE SECURITY ZONE. HE SAID THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SLA IS ONE OF LIAISON AND ADVICE, BUT IT DOES NOT PERMIT ISRAEL TO GIVE ORDERS, AND THE SLA IS NOT A DE FACTO ISRAELI FORCE. THE SLA IS LEBANESE, COMMANDED BY A LEBANESE GENERAL, AND IT BEHAVES AS THE LEBANESE BEHAVE, NOT AS ISRAELIS WOULD. THIS MEANS THAT THE SLA OFTEN ACTS IN A MANNER WHICH IS DISTASTEFUL TO ISRAEL.

– 6. THE “UNFORTUNATE INCIDENT” WITH UNIFIL

– ————————————–

KIMCHE SAID THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL DEPLORES “THE UNFORTUNATE INCIDENT”, AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE IT SETTLED. HE SAID ISRAEL HAS GIVEN THE FOLLOWING ADVICE TO THE SLA: A) NOT TO HARM ANY OF THE HOSTAGES; HE SAID THE SLA HAS COMMITTED ITSELF TO DO NO HARM TO THE FINNISH SOLDIERS, AND THIS IS BEING OBSERVED. B) ISRAEL HAS ADVISED LAHAD TO RELEASE THE HOSTAGES IN THE FRAMEWORK OF TALKS WITH UNIFIL. HE SAID THAT THE ISSUE MUST BE RESOLVED BY UNIFIL AND THE SLA DIRECTLY. ON NO ACCOUNT, HE EMPHASIZED, SHOUL ISRAEL BE A DIRECT PARTY. ISRAEL IS OUT OF LEBANON; IF IT WERE TO DEAL DIRECTLY THAT WOULD INDICATE THAT ISRAEL IS STILL IN. KIMCHE VOLUNTEERED THAT IT IS TRUE THAT ISRAEL STILL HAS LIAISON OFFICERS IN SOUTHERN LEBANON, BUT HE ASSERTED THAT THE NUMBERS ARE FEWER THAN THOSE WHICH WERE ACCEPTED IN THE MAY 17 AGREEMENT WHICH HAD BEEN WELCOMED BY MANY STATES INCLUDING EGYPT.

– 7. THE UNIFIL-SLA MEETING

– ———————-

KIMCHE SAID THAT THE MEETING BETWEEN GENERALS LAHAD AND PONS IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. HE SAID THEY DIS- CUSSED THE RELEASE OF THE CAPTIVES; THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL THOUGHT THEY SHOULD HAVE MET FROM THE VERY BEGIN- NING, BUT THIS MEETING AT LEAST WAS HELD IN A GOOD ATMOSPHERE. THE GIST OF THE MEETING WAS: LAHAD ASKED UNIFIL FOR THE ELEVEN SLA TROOPS TO BE BROUGHT TO A NEUTRAL PLACE WHERE IT COULD BE DETERMINED WHETHER THEY HAD IN FACT DEFECTED OR HAD BEEN CAPTURED AND TURNED OVER TO AMAL. HE SAID THAT IF THE ELEVEN STATE THAT THEY HAD DEFECTED, THE FINNS WILL BE RELEASED IMMEDIATELY BY LAHAD. IT HAD ALSO BEEN AGREED DURING THE MEETING TO APPOINT LIAISON OFFICERS BETWEEN GENERALS PONS AND LAHAD, AND UNIFIL HAD SECURED THE RIGHT TO VISIT THE FINNISH SOLDIERS EVERY THREE OR FOUR DAYS. KIMCHE SAID, OF COURSE HE HOPED THE PROBLEM WOULD BE SOLVED BEFORE THAT TIME LIMIT. KIMCHE CONCLUDED THAT HE BELIEVED THAT IT WAS NOW UP TO UNIFIL TO BRING THE ELEVEN TO A NEUTRAL SPOT, PERHAPS NAQURA.

– 8. GENERAL REMARKS

– —————

KIMCHE OFFERED THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL REMARKS: SINCE THERE IS NO CENTRAL GOVERNMENT IN LEBANON, ISRAEL UNDER- STANDS THE NEED FOR UNIFIL TO HAVE RELATIONS WITH THE AMAL MILITIAS. IN FACT HE SAID THIS IS A POSITIVE THING. IN THE PAST UNIFIL HAD SAID THAT IT COULD DEAL ONLY WITH THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT OF LEBANON. BUT SINCE THAT PROVED IMPRACTICAL, AND UNIFIL IS NOW DEALING WITH AMAL, IT SHOULD ALSO DEAL WITH THE SLA. HE SAID THIS NOW SEEMS TO BE IN PROGRESS. ISRAEL, HE SAID, WOULD LIKE A STRONG CEN- TRAL GOVERNMENT IN LEBANON, AND WOULD LIKE TO HAVE LIAISON WITH THE LEBANESE ARMY. BUT THIS IS NOT FEASIBLE, AND THERE IS LITTLE HOPE FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE FORESEEABL FUTURE. KIMCHE THEN DESCRIBED THE INTERFACTIONAL FIGHTING WITHIN LEBANON, NOTING THAT IT APPEARS THAT ALL FACTIONS ARE NOW FIGHTING WITH ALL OTHERS, FOLLOWING A RECENT REPORT OF A SHIA-DRUZE CONFLICT THIS MORNING.

– 9. JAZZIN

– ——

KIMCHE SAID THAT JAZZIN COULD BE THE NEW FLASHPOINT. HE SAID THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL HAD NEVER TOLD OR ADVISED THE SLA TO GO TO JAZZIN, AND FURTHER ADVISED THE SLA THAT IF IT DECIDED TO GO TO JAZZIN, ISRAEL WOULD NOT HELP THE SLA BECAUSE JAZZIN IS OUTSIDE THE SECURITY ZONE. THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL HAD PROPOSED TO UNIFIL THAT IT DEPLOY TO JAZZIN, SINCE IT HAD FORCES CLOSE BY. HE SAID THE GOI WOULD WELCOME A UNIFIL DEPLOY- MENT TO JAZZIN AND WOULD ADVISE THE SLA TO WITHDRAW IN THAT CASE. THE UN SECRETARY HAD THOUGHT THIS WAS A GOOD IDEA AND TRIED IT OUT WITH PRESIDENT GEMAYEL. GEMAYEL ALSO, ACCORDING TO KIMCHE, THOUGHT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA BUT DECLINED TO REQUEST A UNIFIL PRESENCE IN JAZZIN BECAUSE HE KNEW HE COULDN’T GAIN THE SUPPORT OF EITHER SYRIA OR HIS OWN PRIME MINISTER. HE SAID THIS ALSO DEMONSTRATES THE WEAKNESS OF THE GOVERNMENT OF LEBANON.

– 10. THE FINNS VERSUS THE SLA

—————————–

KIMCHE SAID HE DID NOT KNOW THE FACTS. HE SAID THE INVESTIGATION WAS UNDERWAY, BUT IT APPEARED THAT THE UN STILL BELIEVES THAT THE ELEVEN SLA TROOPS DEFECTED. THE GOI, HE SAID, IS SKEPTICAL; IT BELIEVES THEY WERE ABDUCTED FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS WHICH KIMCHE ADMITTED WERE CIRCUMSTANTIAL: A) ALL OF THE ELEVEN LEFT THEIR FAMILIES BEHIND. KNOWING THAT THE SLA IS NOT A GENTLE FORCE, THEY WOULD CLEARLY HAVE BEEN AFRAID FOR THEIR FAMILIES IF THEY HAD VOLUNTARILY DEFECTED. B) SHORTLY AFTER THE SLA ELEVEN WERE MOVED TO TYRE, AMAL LEADER NABIH BERRI SAID THAT HE WOULD EXCHANGE THE ELEVEN PRISONERS FOR THE SHIA PRISONERS HELD IN ISRAEL. KIMCHE SAID IT WOULD BE RARE INDEED TO OFFER TO EXCHANGE DEFECTORS FOR OTHER PRISONERS. C) HE THEN SHOWED A TV FILM MADE BY A SYRIAN CREW JUST AFTER THE ELEVEN REACHED TYRE. THE CAPTIVES WERE SHOWN BEING HELD UNDER ARMED GUARD, SULLEN, APPARENTLY FEARFUL, AND RESPONDING TO ORDERS BY THEIR GUARDS. KIMCHE SAID THIS APPEARED NOT TO BE THE DEMEANOR OF PERSONS WHO HAD VOLUNTARILY DEFECTED.

– 11. KIMCHE CONCLUDED THIS SESSION BY NOTING THAT ISRAEL MAY NEVER KNOW THE TRUTH, BUT THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAE WANTS THE FINNS RELEASED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. HE SAID THAT ALL THAT ISRAEL WANTS IS PEACE ON THE NORTHERN FRONTIER.

12. AMBASSADORS’ COMMENTS

————————–

THE BRITISH AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT THERE WAS A PRESS REPORT THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL WOULD CONTEMPLATE A MOVE OF UNIFIL TO THE BORDER UNDER AN ARRANGEMENT AGREED TO WITH THE SLA. KIMCHE SAID THE UN HAD PRESENTED SOME IDEAS TO THE GOI ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A UNIFIL DEPLOYMENT TO THE BORDER WITH THE DE FACTO COOPERATION OF THE SLA. NO DECISION HAD BEEN REACHED, AND THE SUBJECT WAS NOT THOROUGHLY DISCUSSED IN THE RABIN/URQUHART MEETING YESTERDAY. HE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT IN THE MEANTIME, UNTIL SUCH AN ARRANGEMENT IS WORKED OUT, ISRAELI POLICY, AS DETERMINED BY THE CABINET, REMAINS. HE ADDED HOWEVER, THAT ISRAEL IS PREPARED TO CONSIDER ANY IDEAS FOR STRENGTHENING THE STABILITY OF THE BORDER AREA.

– 13. THE ITALIAN AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT THE EC-10 HAD MET AND HAD MADE A GENERAL STATEMENT ON LEBANON. HE SAID THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE TEN CONSIDERED THE INCIDENT VERY SERIOUS. THEIR OPINION WAS THAT EVERY MEASURE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO FREE ALL HOSTAGES. AMBASSADOR TALIANI ADDED A PERSONAL NOTE SAYING THAT IT WAS DIFFICULT FOR HIM TO ACCEPT ISRAELI DISCLAIMERS OF RESPONSIBILITY IN VIEW OF THE FACT THAT ISRAEL HAD ARMED AND EQUIPPED AND CONTINUED TO PAY THE SLA. KIMCHE REPLIED THAT GIVING ASSISTANCE DOES NOT MEAN CONTROL. FOR EXAMPLE, HE SAID, THE 3,000 SOVIET ADVISERS IN SYRIA DO NOT MEAN THAT THE SOVIET UNION CONTROLS SYRIA. HE SAID IF ISRAEL ACCEPTED THE ITALIAN AMBASSADOR’S PREMISE, THE IDF WOULD BE DOOMED TO STAY IN LEBANON IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN CONTROL.

– 14. THE SWEDISH AMBASSADOR STATED THE STRONG DESIRE OF HIS GOVERNMENT TO HAVE THE FINNISH TROOPS RELEASED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. HE ADDED THAT HE FELT THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL HAS A STRONG RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RELEASE.

15. THE BRITISH AMBASSADOR INTERVENED AGAIN TO NOTE THAT IT WAS A VERY DANGEROUS PRECEDENT TO ACCEPT THE TAKING OF HOSTAGES. HE SAID HIS MAJESTY’S GOVERNMENT WAS VERY EXERCISED OVER THE HOSTAGE ISSUE. HE SAID ANY ACTION THAT ENCOURAGES THE TAKING OF HOSTAGES IS BAD BOTH IN THIS CASE AND IN THE GENERAL SENSE. KIMCHE SAID HE AGREED THAT ANY TAKING OF HOSTAGES IS BAD. HE CONCEDED THAT PERHAPS ISRAEL COULD SEND IN ITS TROOPS TO FORCE THEIR RELEASE. BUT IF THE IDF DID GO IN, IT WOULD MEAN THE END OF THE SLA, AND THE GOI WOULD HAVE TO BE BACK IN LEBANON TO STAY. HE SAID ISRAEL HAS GIVEN STRONG ADVICE TO LAHAD THAT IT WAS WRONG TO HOLD HOSTAGES. BUT HE ADDED THAT THE ELEVEN SLA TROOPS MAY ALSO BE AS MUCH HOSTAGE AS THE FINNS. HE SAID THEREFORE THE ONLY LINE OF ATTACK IS TO FOLLOW UP ON THE LAHAD PROPOSAL. HE THEN URGED THE CONTRIBUTORS TO UNIFUL TO PRESS THE UN TO HAVE THE AMAL BRING THE ELEVEN TROOPS TO THE NEUTRAL ZONE SO IT COULD DETERMINE IF THEY WERE VOLUNTARILY DEFECTORS OR IN FACT CAPTIVES.

16. THE AUSTRALIAN AMBASSADOR SAID THAT HIS GOVERNMENT WELCOMES THE ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL FROM LEBANON, BUT ADDED THAT THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF LIAISON OFFICERS LEAVES THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL CONSIDERABLE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE CIRCUMSTANCES AT PRESENT. HE SAID THE HOSTAGES SHOULD BE RELEASED WITHOUT CONDITIONS IMMEDIATELY.

– 17. COMMENT – THIS WAS THE THIRD OF A SERIES OF MEETINGS THAT KIMCHE HAS HAD WITH THIS GROUP ON LEBANON. KIMCHE STATED THE CASE WITH CLARITY AND PRECISION, BUT HIS AUDIENCE WAS NOT CONVINCED. CONCERNING THE HOSTAGES, HE REPEATED SEVERAL TIMES THAT ISRAEL COULD BE EITHER IN LEBANON OR OUT, AND IF OUT, ISRAEL COULD NOT FORCE LAHAD TO DO WHAT HE DIDN’T WANT TO DO. BEHIND THIS DENIAL OF CONTROL OF LAHAD IS KIMCHE’S CONVICTION THAT TO TRY TO FORCE LAHAD WOULD MEAN THE END OF LAHAD AND LAHAD’S FORCES CLEARLY THIS IS A CARD WHICH ISRAEL HAS NOT BEEN WILLING TO PLAY. IT IS ALSO CLEAR, AS KIMCHE IMPLIED SEVERAL TIMES, THAT ISRAELI POLICY ON SOUTHERN LEBANON IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE TACTICAL SITUATION SHIFTS. BUT ISRAEL IS STILL COMMITTED TO SUPPORTING LAHAD IN GENERAL AND IN HIS CONFRONTATION WITH UNIFIL, AND IS UNWILLING TO FACE THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE DISINTEGRATION OF THE SLA. IF THE SLA SHOULD CRUMBLE, THE PERES GOVERNMENT’S LEBANON WITH- DRAWAL DECISION, UP TO NOW A VERY POPULAR ONE, COULD SPRING AGAIN INTO THE CENTER OF POLITICAL CONTRO- VERSY HERE. CERTAINLY SHARON AND HIS ALLIES WOULD MAKE THE MOST OF IT TO WEAKEN THE PERES GOVERNMENT AND FURTHER INHIBIT ITS ABILITY TO MOVE FORWARD ON EITHER THE EGYPTIAN FRONT OR THE PEACE PROCESS ISSUES NOW UNDER DISCUSSION.

18. BEIRUT

MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.

FLATEN

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The War Files (Part VIII) – Bashir Gemayel In 1977

The War Files (Part VIII) – Bashir Gemayel In 1977

Bachir and Pierre Gemayel

I wanted to post something about the 1982 invasion and Bashir Gemayel’s election as president, but I couldn’t find anything (If you do find something about the early eighties, please mention it in the comment section). This post is a compilation of four cables mentioning Gemayel in the last months of 1977. The cables are organized chronologically.

ISRAEL AND THE PHALANGE
Date: 1977 November 13, 00:00 (Sunday)	Canonical ID: 1977STATE272087_c
Original Classification: SECRET	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Department of State	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009
To: White House

1. CALLED ON PRESIDENT AT 1730 LOCAL NOV 12 AS SCHEDULED. SHEIKH PIERRE GEMAYEL AND SONBASHIR LEFT HIS OFFICE AS I WENT IN. I TOLD PRESIDENT DEPARTMENT HAD INSTRUCTED AMBASSADOR LEWIS TO RAISE PROBLEM OF ISRAELI-PHALANGE COOPERATION WITH ISRAELIS AND ASK THEM TO DISCOURAGE CHRISTIANS BEFORE BASHIR’S IDEAS TOOK DEEPER ROOT. I HAD ALSO BEEN INSTRUCTED TO ASK HIM WHAT HE COULD TELL US ABOUT HIS MEETING WITH PIERRE GEMAYEL WHICH MIGHT ASSIST AMBASSADOR LEWIS IN HIS

SECRET SECRET PAGE 02 STATE 272087

PRESENTATION.

2. SARKIS SAID PIERRE HAD CALLED ON HIM YESTERDAY MORNING (NOV 11) AS PROMISED AND ON BEING ASKED, SAID HE HAD NO KNOWLEDGE OF ANY PLANS OF BASHIR TO UNDERTAKE ACTION OF THE SORT PRESIDENT DESCRIBED, WITH OR WITHOUT ISRAELIS. IT WAS UNTHINKABLE THAT BASHIR WOULD DO SOMETHING LIKE THAT WITHOUT FIRST CONSULTING HIM. AFTER CONSULTING HIM HE MIGHT GO AHEAD AND DO IT ANYWAY, BUT HE WOULD CERTAINLY CONSULT FIRST. PRESIDENT OUTLINED TO HIM SERIOUSNESS OF WHAT BASHIR ALLEGEDLY HAD IN MIND — MILITARY ACTION AGAINST SYRIANS TIMED TO COINCIDE WITH INCIDENT IN SOUTH, THUS PROVIDING AN EXCUSE FOR ISRAELIS TO LAND AT JOUNIEH IN ORDER COME TO RESCUE OF CHRISTIANS. TO THINK IN THESE TERMS WHEN AREA WAS MOVING TOWARDS PEACE WAS HEIGHT OF FOLLY. IT WOULD MEAN DESTRUCTION OF LEBANON.

3. SHEIKH PEIRRE HAD SUBSEQUENTLY CALLED HIM ON TELEPHONE TO TELL HIM THAT BASHIR DENIED TOTALLY ANY INVOLVEMENT IN PLANS OF THE NATURE DESCRIBED. HE HAD ARRANGED TO BRING BASHIR THERE THIS AFTERNOON (NOV 12). PRESIDENT HAD CONFRONTED BASHIR WITH FACT THAT INTELLIGENCE SOURCES REPORTED HE WAS PLANNING TO ATTACK SYRIAN TROOPS IN LEBANON IN ORDER GIVE ISRAELIS PRETEXT FOR INTERVENTION, AND THAT HE WAS ALLEGED TO BE IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE AGENTS HERE, WORKING OUT COORDINATED PLANS TO THIS END. BASHIR DENIED ACCUSATION FLATLY. PRESIDENT DID NOT BELIEVE HIM BECAUSE HIS INTELLIGENCE SOURCES WERE CERTAIN OF THEIR INFORMATION.

4. I ASKED HOW CERTAIN THEY WERE. SARKIS SAID THEY

SECRET SECRET PAGE 03 STATE 272087

WERE CERTAIN ISRAELIS AND BASHIR WERE WORKING TOGETHER ON PLANS FOR MILITARY ACTION OF SOME SORT. I SAID I HAD LOOKED INTO ALLEGATION ISRAELIS WERE TRAINING PHALANGE AND THAT DID NOT HOLD UP, THERE BEING NO NEED FOR THEM IN FIRST PLACE (DID NOT TELL HIM THAT G-2 JOHNNY ABDO HAD TOLD ME LAST NIGHT STORY WAS NOT TRUE). PRESIDENT SAID HE HAD NOT MEANT TO SAY ISRAELIS WERE TRAINING PHALANGE, HE MEANT THEY WERE HELPING THEM WORK OUT PLANS. LEBANSES KNEW THERE MOSAD OFFICERS HERE WHO WERE CONNECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. (ABDO SAID SAME THING LAST NIGHT.)

5. I ASKED IF THERE WAS ANYTHING SPECIAL HE WOULD LIKE AMBASSADOR LEWIS TO CONVEY TO ISRAELIS ON SUBJECT. PRESIDENT SAID NOTHING BEYOND TELLING THEM TO CEASE AND DESIST.

6. COMMENT: HAD BASHIR NOT TALKED TO ME IN SUCH REVOLUTIONARY TERMS LAST WEEK, AND HAD WEIZMAN NOT MADE HIS CRYPTIC REMARK ABOUT THE NORTH, I WOULD BE INCLINED TO THINK THIS WHOLE AFFAIR WAS A MARE’S NEST. THERE IS ENOUGH SMOKE, HOWEVER, SO THAT I SUSPECT SOMETHING IS INDEED GOING ON. JUST WHAT AND HOW SERIOUS IS HARD TO SAY. WE HAVE BEEN TOLD, FOR INSTANCE, THAT BASHIR’S PLANS INCLUDE SURROUNDING THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE AT BAABDA AND MOUNTING A COUP D’ETAT, THE MINISTERS OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT ALREADY HAVING BEEN CHOSEN. THIS SEEMS PRETTY FAR-FETCHED, BUT THERE ARE MANY YOUNG CHRISTIAN HOTHEADS WHO WOULD GO FOR SUCH AN ADVENTURE.

7. SUGGEST AMBASSADOR LEWIS DRAW ON ABOVE AND OUR 5632 AS HE SEES FIT, STRAIGHTENING OUT THE MISUNDERSTANDING ABOUT TRAINING VS PLANNING, AND AVOIDING REFERENCE TO MY OWN VIEWS OR COMMENTS TO SARKIS OR DEPARTMENT. IN VIEW MY RELATIONS WITH BASHIR, AND IMPORTANCE MAINTAINING THAT CONDUIT OPEN, DO NOT WANT TO GIVE HIM

SECRET SECRET PAGE 04 STATE 272087

REASON TO CLAIM THAT I HAVE SQUEALED ON HIM. WE MAY BE SURE THAT ISRAELIS WILL TELL HIM OF LEWIS’S CONVERSATION WITH WEIZMAN, AS THEY ALSO TOLD HIM WE HAD VETOED ATTACK ON NAQURA. REQUEST THAT WEIZMAN OR BEGIN NOT BE GIVEN COPY OF EITHER OF OUR TELEGRAMS ON SUBJECT. THIS PROMISES TO BE A DELICATE MATTER HERE.

PARKER

UNQUOTE VANCE

SECRET

NNN

CONTACTS WITH BASHIR GEMAYEL
Date: 1977 November 28, 00:00 (Monday)	Canonical ID: 1977BEIRUT05890_c
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009
To: Department of State

1. APPRECIATE PERSONAL INTEREST YOU TAKING IN ARRANGEMENTS FOR BASHIR GEMAYEL AND AGREE IMPORTANT THING IS THAT USG TAKE CONSISTENT, FIRM POSITION WITH HIM. QUESTION BEFORE US, IT SEEMS TO ME, IS HOW MUCH HE DOES UNDER OUR AUSPICES AND HOW MUCH IS DONE PRIVATELY BY MARONITE COMMUNITY AND ITS OUTRIDERS.

2. THERE IS DISTINCTION BETWEEN MEETING USG OFFICIALS IN THEIR OFFICE AND SEEING THEM AT A SOCIAL FUNCTION. WHILE BASHIR CAN ALWAYS CLAIM HE SAW SO-AND-SO AND HAD TALK WITH HIM EVEN IF HE ONLY SAW HIM AT A COCKTAIL PARTY, THAT IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN BEING ABLE TO SAY HE WAS RECEIVED AT THE PENTAGON OR THE WHITE HOUSE. FOR HIM TO SAY HE WAS RECEIVED BY ATHERTON WHO HAD WITH HIM SENIOR OFFICIAL FROM PENTAGON IMPLIES A PENTAGON INTEREST IN BASHIR WHICH IS

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LIKELY TO BE MISUNDERSTOOD HERE. THAT IS WHY I WOULD RATHER NOT HAVE JANDA PRESENT DURING BACHIR’S CALL ON YOU. JANKA’S PRESENCE AT LUNCH, A LESSER OCCASION, WOULD CAUSE FEWER PROBLEMS.

3. AS FOR “DEBRIEFING,” I DON’T THINK THERE WAS ANY MISUNDERSTANDING. DEPARTMENT APPARENTLY HAS IN MIND BASHIR SITTING IN SAME ROOM WITH INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS WHO ASK QUESTIONS AND LISTEN TO HIM. THAT IS WHAT HAPPENS TO ME WHEN I GET DEBRIEFED, AND THAT IS WHAT I ASSUMED WE HAD IN MIND FOR BASHIR. MY PROBLEM IS THAT THIS WILL BE REPLAYED HERE WITH CAPITAL LETTERS–BASHIR GIVES INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY THE STRAIGHT STORY. THIS GIVES FURTHER CREDENCE TO HIS SELF IMAGE AS PALADIN OF THE CHRISTIAN FORCES SUPPORTED BY THE ENLIGHTENED POWERS OF WASHINGTON IF NOT BY THE AMERICAN AMBASSADOR IN BEIRUT. PUT THAT THROUGH THE LOCAL AMPLIFYING SYSTEM AND IT IS LIKELY TO COME OUT AS A CONSIDERABLE BOOST TO HIS POSITION. HE IS FEISTY ENOUGH AS IT IS. PLEASE DO CALL OFF THE DEBRIEFING, UNLESS I WOULD BE EMBARRASSING TO DO SO THIS LATE IN THE GAME. ANYTHING WE NEED TO HAVE FROM BASHIR WE CAN PROBABLY GET FROM ONE-TO-ONE CONVERSATIONS.

4. WE HAVE NO FEARS ABOUT QUANDT MEETING BASHIR. JUST WANT TO BE SURE FORMER KNOWS HOW IT WILL BE REPLAYED HERE.

PARKER

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CONTACTS WITH BASHIR GEMAYEL
Date: 1977 November 27, 00:00 (Sunday)	Canonical ID: 1977STATE283209_c
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Department of State	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009
To: Lebanon Beirut

1. IN MAKING ARRANGEMENTS FOR BASHIR WE WILL BE SURE NOT TO MAKE TOO MUCH OF HIM. BELIEVE YOU WOULD AGREE THAT THE IMPORTANT THING IS THAT WE TAKE A CONSISTENT, STRONG LINE IN SUPPORT OF SARKIS AND IN FIRM OPPOSITION TO BASHIR’S DANGEROUS IDEAS. HE HAS HAD LINES OUT ALL OVER TOWN. HIS INTERMEDIARIES ARE PREPARED TO HOST COCKTAIL PARTIES, IN- VITING PEOPLE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE, DOD, CIA, ETC. SINCE WE WERE NOT SURE WE COULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ALL SUCH CON- TACTS WITHOUT A PRAGMATIC SOLUTION OF OUR OWN, WE FELT IT WOULD BE MORE REALISTIC TO MAKE SURE SUCH CONTACTS TOOK PLACE IN THE DEPARTMENT AND UNDER OUR AUSPICES. DEBRIEFING

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 STATE 283209

MAY HAVE BEEN THE WRONG WORD TO DESCRIBE THE SESSION WE ENVISAGE AFTER LUNCH ON DECEMBER 5. WE EXPECT HIM TO BRIEF US, NOT THE REVERSE. BY THEN, HAVING SEEN HABIB, HE WILL NOT HAVE ANY ILLUSIONS LEFT ANYWAY. WE CAN CALL IT OFF IF YOU THINK IT NECESSARY. HIS ADVANCE MAN HAS SAID HE WILL BE READY TO TALK FRANKLY ABOUT THE ISRAELI CONNECTION, AND WE WANT TO HEAR WHAT HE HAS TO SAY. AS FOR QUANDT, HE SAW BOTH CHAMOUNS, AND RUNS ACROSS LEBANESE OF ALL KINDS REGULARLY.

2. WE WILL SEND YOU A REPORT BY CABLE AFTER THE VISIT WHICH YOU WILL BE ABLE TO USE TO BRIEF BOUTROS.

VANCE

CONFIDENTIAL

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CONVERSATIONS WITH BASHIR GEMAYEL
Date: 1977 December 7, 00:00 (Wednesday)	Canonical ID: 1977STATE291546_c
Original Classification: SECRET	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Department of State	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009
To: Lebanon Beirut

1. IN HABIB’S ABSENCE ATHERTON MET WITH BASHIR GEMAYEL AND ALFRED MADY OF THE KATA’IB POLITBURO DECEMBER 3 FOR OVER HOUR, AND VELIOTES HOSTED LENGTHY INFORMAL LUNCH FOR HIM ON THE EIGHTH FLOOR DECEMBER 5 ALSO ATTENDED BY DRAPER, STODDARD, HOWELL, AND POPE (NO DOD OR CIA REPS WERE THERE).

2. GEMAYEL TOOK AN OUTWARDLY MODERATE LINE WITH US, AS HE HAS IN HIS PUBLIC APPEARANCES HERE, BUTTHE CORE OF HIS POSITION WAS OBDURATE. HE SAID HE WANTED TO DISPEL A MIS- CONCEPTION HE SAID HE KNEW WAS WIDELY HELD IN THE STATE DEPARTMENT: THAT “THOSE BLOODTHIRSTY CHRISTIANS” WANTED PARTITION. THIS WAS FALSE, HE SAID, ALTHOUGH THERE WERE

SECRET SECRET PAGE 02 STATE 291546

“NUANCES” TO THIS POSITION. HE WANTED A UNITED LEBANON. AT THE SAME TIME, HE WAS OPPOSED TO A RETURN TO THE BANKRUPT STATUS QUO ANTE OF THE NATIONAL PACT. HE WAS VAGUE ABOUT IDEAS FOR SPECIFIC POLITICAL REFORM, WHICH HE ADMITTED HAD YET TO BE WORKED OUT, BUT SAID THAT SOME SORT OF “DECENTRAL- IZATION” WAS NECESSARY TO PREVENT DE JURE PARTITION. DE FACTO PARTITION ALREADY EXISTS. REFORM WOULD HAVE TO BE RADICAL. THERE WAS NO POINT IN GOING BACK TO THE OLD SYS- TEM OF MEDIOCRITY AND COMPROMISE. A NEW SYSTEM, HE SAID, SHOULD OFFER “EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES” BUT DEMAND “EQUAL OBLIGA- TIONS” BY ALL THOSE READY TO PUT LEBANON FIRST. SUCH NECES- SARY CHANGES SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE MONTHS AGO BY SARKIS. NOW THE GAP BETWEEN FACTIONS WAS WIDER THAN EVER, AND HE WAS AFRAID REFORM MIGHT COME TOO LATE. HE WAS CRITICAL OF SARKIS FOR TRYING TO PERPETUATE THE STRONG, CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CONCEPT, WITH ITS CHEHABIST PHILOSOPHY, G-2 TRAPPINGS, ETC. PRESSED REPEATEDLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC, HE RETREATED TO PHRASES SUCH AS “ALLOWING DIVERSITY TO THRIVE WITHIN A UNIFIED STATE”. HE ADMITTED THAT LEBANON’S FAILURE TO DEVELOP AN ADEQUATE NATIONAL EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM WAS A DISGRACE. UNDER HIS DECENTRALIZED STATE, THERE WOULD, THEREFORE, BE A PLACE FOR A STRONG EDUCATION MINIS- TRY IN THE OTHERWISE RATHER WEAK CENTRAL GOVERNMENT. HE ASKED FOR U.S. SUPPORT FOR SUCH REFORMS.

3. ATHERTON EXPLAINED BASIC PRINCIPLE OF OUR POLICY IN LEBANON WAS SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT SARKIS AND HIS UNIFYING POLICIES. HE OUTLINED ROLE OF OUR MILITARY AND ECONOMIC AID PROGRAMS IN THIS CONNECTION. WE THOUGHT THAT SOME REFORM OF THE LEBANESE SYSTEM WAS NECESSARY. WHEN PRESIDENT SARKIS FELT THE TIME WAS RIGHT TO ATTEMPT OR NEGOTIATE SOME RESTRUCTURING, WE WOULD STAND BEHIND HIM. WE WERE NOT NECESSARILY OPPOSED TO IDEAS FOR DECENTRALIZATION AND WOULD BE OPEN-

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MINDED OR SUPPORTIVE ABOUT THE CONCEPT, IF RPT IF IT EN- JOYED BROAD SUPPORT NATIONALLY.

4. GEMAYEL’S CRITICISMS OF THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE ALSO APPLIED TO A NATIONAL ARMY. HE WAS NOT SO MUCH AGAINST THE BUILDING OF THE ARMY AS HE WAS AGAINST THE OUTDATED PHILOSOPHY WHICH WOULD AFFECT ITS EMPLOYMENT I.E. AS AN INSTRUMENT OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT. IT WOULD REPEAT THE MISTAKES OF THE PAST. CITING PAST OCCASIONS WHEN THE ARMY HAD FAILED TO PROTECT THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY, THANKS TO THE OBSOLETE “SYSTEM”, HE ARGUED THAT THE VARIOUS COMMUNITIES COULD NOT BE EXPECTED TO RELY ON ANY NEW ARMY FOR PROTECTION. THE MAIN FUTURE PROBLEM FOR THE CHRISTIANS IS SURVIVAL. WE DO NOT WANT ANOTHER ARMAGEDDON.

5. THE ONE POINT HE WAS CLEAR ON WAS THAT DECENTRALIZATION MUST INVOLVE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF REGIONAL MILITARY UNITS ALONG CONFESSIONAL LINES, ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BE NOMINALLY UNDER A UNIFIED COMMAND. HE WAS SCORNFUL OF PRESENT ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD THE ARMY, AND OUR ROLE, AND CHALLENGED US TO POINT TO ANY EVIDENCE THAT IT EVEN EXISTED, MUCH LESS THAT IT COULD PLAY AN EFFECTIVE ROLE. IT WAS FOR SHOW ONLY, HE ARGUED. HE HAD SOME CONFIDENCE IN KHOURY, BUT UNLESS HE WERE ALLOWED TO BUILD SEPARATE CONFESSIONAL FORCES AS A FIRST STEP HE WOULD NOT SUCCEED.

6. GEMAYEL WAS ALSO CRITICAL OF THE SHTAURA AGREEMENT. PHASES ONE AND TWO HAD BEEN A HYPOCRITICAL MISE EN SCENE (WE DID NOT ARGUE WITH HIM MUCH ON THIS POINT) AND HE OPPOSED PHASE THREE IN THE SOUTH INTER ALIA BECAUSE (1) IT WOULD NOT BE IMPLEMENTED, (2) A CLAUSE IN THE SHTAURA AGREEMENT WOULD ALLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF FOREIGN FIGHTERS TO LEBANON UNDER PALESTINIAN COVER, AND (3) EVEN IF THE PALESTINIANS DID MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTH THEY WOULD ONLY MOVE TO JEZZINE AND THE SHOUF AND CAUSE WORSE PROBLEMS. WE PRESSED HIM TO SUGGEST ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS FOR THE S

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SOUTH, BUT THE UPSHOT OF HIS REMARKS WAS THAT HE PREFERRED THE STATUS QUO TO SHTAURA. WE MADE ESPECIALLY CLEAR THAT WE HAD OUR OWN INTERESTS TO CONSIDER AND WOULD DO OUR BEST TO SEE THAT PALESTINIAN WITHDRAWALS OCCURRED.

7. IT MAY BE OF INTEREST THAT AT ONE POINT WHEN WE HELD UP THE EXAMPLE OF THE PNL HANDING OVER ITS SHERMANS TO THE ARMY, GEMAYEL SAID THAT HE HAD TALKED TO CAMILLE CHAMOUN ONLY AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE TO CHECK THIS VERY POINT (WHICH CAPTAIN NEHME HAD ALSO MENTIONED TO HIM) AND CHAMOUN HAD DENIED VEHEMENTLY THAT ANY TRANSFER HAD OCCURRED. IN FACT, SAID GEMAYEL, CHAMOUN HAD TOLD HIM THAT IF HE COULD GET MORE TANKS FROM THE AMERICANS HE OUGHT TO BRING SOME BACK. WE PRESUME THIS CONFLICT REFLECTS A LACK OF COMMUNICATION BETWEEN DANY AND CAMILLE CHAMOUN, AS WELL AS PNL-KATA’IB RIVALRY.

8. WE BARELY TOUCHED ISRAELI-MARONITE COOPERATION. WHILE SUSPICIOUS OF SYRIAN INTENTIONS, HE ADMITTED THAT THE ADF HAD CAUSED FEWER PROBLEMS AND FRICTIONS THAN ANTICIPATED. HE, LIKE HIS FATHER, HAD CONFIDENCE IN ASSAD, BUT NOT NECESSARILY HIS SUBORDINATES OR SYRIAN AGENTS IN LEBANON. IT WAS A GREAT TEMPTATION FOR THE SYRIANS TO MEDDLE POLI- TICALLY IN LEBANON AND USE THE THREAT OF JAILING THOSE WHO OPPOSED SYRIAN ACTIONS. HE ASSERTED THAT CERTAIN LEBANESE GOVERNMENT ACTIONS AND APPOINTMENTS WERE BEING MADE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYRIAN FACTOR. WITHOUT HIDING HIS DE- TESTATION OF THE PALESTINIANS, HE HAD NO QUICK ANSWERS TO THIS PROBLEM, AND DIDN’T ARGUE WITH OUR POSITION THAT THE BASIC SOLUTION HAD TO BE FOUND IN A COMPREHENSIVE MIDDLE EAST SETTLEMENT.

9. SUMMING UP, GEMAYEL SENSED HE HAD A GOOD OPPORTUNITY

SECRET SECRET PAGE 05 STATE 291546

TO PRESENT HIS IDEAS FULLY AND TO ASK FOR U.S. SUPPORT FOR POLITICAL REFORM. IN TURN, HE RECEIVED A FULL EX- PLANATION OF U.S. ATTITUDES IN CANDID SPIRITED EXCHANGES. HE WAS EXASPERATING IN HIS TENDENCY TO OUTLINE IN EXHAUST- ING DETAIL THE FULL RANGE OF NEGATIVE FACTORS SURROUNDING AN ISSUE WITHOUT PROPOSING SPECIFIC ALTERNATIVES. 10. IN BACKGROUNDING THE LOCAL AN-NAHAR CORRESPONDENT ON GEMAYEL’S CALL ON ATHERTON, WE SAID THAT IT IS USUAL FOR ATHERTON TO MEET WITH PROMINENT VISITORS FROM THE AREA AND TO HEAR THEIR VIEWS, AND THAT NO MORE SHOULD BE READ INTO THE CALL.

VANCE

SECRET

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You might also like:

The War Files (Part I) – The Chaos Before The War: 1973-1974

The War Files (Part II) – 1975 and 1976: Karami The Presidential Candidate, “Hafez Assad The Latest Incarnation Of the Crusaders”, and “A Certain Brigadier Aoun”

The War Files (Part III) – The Brown-Chamoun Meetings Of 1976

The War Files (Part IV) – Meeting Kamal Jumblatt

The War Files (Part V) – Meeting Saeb Salam

The War Files (Part VI) – Elias Sarkis, The Forgotten Wartime President

The War Files (Part VII) – The Cairo Peace Negotiations Of 1976

The War Files (Part VII) – The Cairo Peace Negotiations Of 1976

Plumes of smoke rise from the Holiday Inn Hotel in Beirut, Lebanon Dec. 15, 1975. (AP Photo)

In September 1976, Lebanese leaders (I think it’s safe to call them warlords by now) met in Cairo in order to find a peaceful solution to the crisis. Today, you’ll read three cables (one for the 15th of September, one for the 16th of September, and one for the 17th of September) about these negotiations.

CAIRO DISCUSSIONS ON LEBANON
Date: 1976 September 15, 14:44 (Wednesday)	Canonical ID: 1976CAIRO12468_b
Original Classification: LIMITED OFFICIAL USE	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Egypt Cairo	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Algeria Algiers \| Department of State \|Egypt Sinai \| Israel Tel Aviv \| Jordan Amman \| Kuwait Kuwait City \| Lebanon Beirut \| Libya Tripoli \| Russia Moscow \|Saudi Arabia Jeddah \| Secretary of State \|Sudan Khartoum \| Syria Damascus \|Tunisia Tunis \| United Kingdom London

SUMMARY. SARKIS AND JUMBLATT REPORTEDLY TO FOLLOW KARAMI, GEMAYEL AND OTHERS TO CAIRO. SADAT MET SEPT. 14 WITH KARAMI AND MUSA SADR SEPARETLY AND WILL RECEIVE GEMAYEL AND SALAM SEPT. 15. GOE REPORTEDLY IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH ARAFAT. LOCAL DAILIES DIFFER ON MILITARY INTENTIONS OF SARG. END SUMMARY.

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1. CAIRO DAILIES EPT. 15 PREOCCUPIED WITH WHAT THEY PERCEIVE AS INCEASINGLY CRUCIAL GOE ROLE IN NEGOTIATIONS ON LEBANON. PRESIDENT ELECT SARKIS TO VISIT CAIRO SEPT. 18/19 AND HE RECEIVED BY SADAT IN ISMAILIYA. JUMBLATT HAS REPORTEDLY ANNOUNCED THAT HE WILL VISIT CAIRO PRIOR TO SEPT. 23 INSTALLATION OF SARKIS AND FORMER LEBANESE PRIMIN TAKI AL-DIN AL-SOLH APPARENTLY TO ARRIVE CAIRO SEPT 16 WITH MUFTI OF LEBANON SHAIKH HASAN KHALID.

2. ALL DAILIES CARRY FRONT-PAGE PICUTRES OF MEETING IN MIT ABU AL-KOM BETWEEN KARAMI AND SADAT, ALSO ATTENDED BY VP MUBAREK, PRIMIN SALIM AND DEPRIMIN/FONMIN FAHMY. NO DETAILS GIVEN. PHALANGIST LEADER GEMAYEL AND FORMER PRIMIN SA’IB SALAM WILL MEET (PRESUMABLY SEPARATELY) WITH SADAT SEPT. 15. SHI’ITE IMAM MUSA SADR REPORTEDLY CONFERRED WITH SADAT SEPT. 14. “OFFICIAL EGYPTIAN SOURCES” AFFIRMED THAT GOE IS IN CONTINUOUS CONTACT WITH ARAFAT AND THAT EGYPT NOW FULLY COGNIZANT OF PLO STAND ON LEBANESE QUESTIONS. OFFICIAL SOURCES ALSO STATE THAT GOE CURRENTLY HOLDING DISCUSSIONS WITH NATIONALIST FORCES REPS FORMER MINISTER ABBAS KHALAF AND TAWFIG SULTAN.

3. ALL DAILIES FEATURE STATEMENT BY GEMAYEL TO PRESS AFFIRMING THAT HE “CONSIDERS EGYPT HIS SECOND HOME” AND THAT HE “LOVES EGYGT AS HE LOVES LEBANON BECAUSE EGYPT IS THE ELDER SISTER AND EXTENDS A HELPING HAND.” GEMAYEL ALSO REORTEDLY STATED THAT PHALANGISTS DO NOT DIFFER WITHOTHERS OVER PALESTINIAN CAUSE OR WITH PALESTINIAN RESISTANCE ITSELF.

4. DAILIES CARRY CONFLICTING REPORTS CONCERNING SYRIAN INTENTONS BUT ARTICLES GENERALLY LOW KEY AND ALMOST PUSHED OFF FRONT PAGES BY CAIRO NEGOTIATIONS. AHRAM, QUOTING PLO SOURCES, OPINES THAT SARG, UNDER PRESSURE FROM OTHER ARAB STATES, UNLIKELY TO PURSUE MILITARY SOLUTION IN LEBANON PRIOR TO SEPT. 23. PLO SOURCES EXPECT TRIPARTITE SYRIAN-PLO-LEBANESE MEETING IN SHTAURA WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS. ON OTHER HAND, AKHBAR, CITING “ISOLATIONIST LEBANESE SOURCES” (PROBABLY NLP), REFERS TO MASSING AND STRENGTHENING OF SYRIAN TROOPS ALONG MAIN DAMACUS-BEIRUT ROAD ON WESTERN SIDE O BIQAA VALLEY, AS LIMITED

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PRELUDE TO MILITARY DRIVE PRIOR TO INSTALLATION OF SARKIS.

5. IN BRIEF CONVERSATION WITH CHARGE SEPT. 14 BOTH FAHMY AIDE AL-BAZ AND GOE AMBASSADOR TO LEBANON MITWALLI (WHO CONSULTING IN CAIRO AND EXPECTS RETURN TO BEIRUT WITH SARKIS SEPT. 19) EXPRESSED CONSIDERABLE OPTIMISM. MITWALLI VOLUNTEERED THAT DESIRE TO END CARNAGE IS NOW STRENGTHENING FAST IN LEBANON.

6. COMMENT: EGYPTIANS PLEASED BY NEW-FOUND PROMINENCE ON LEBANESE ISSUE AND CAIRO PRESS, IN IMITATION OF ITS SYRIAN COUNTERPART, VIRTUALLY IGNORING EVENTS IN DAMASCUS AND PORTRAYING CAIRO DISCUSSIONS AS ONLY GAME IN TOWN RE POSSIBLE LEBANESE SOLUTION. 7. DESPITE WHIRLWIND OF ACTIVITY, FROM EMBASSY VIEWPOINT, OUTCOME OF DISCUSSIONS IN CAIRO CONTINUES TO HINGE ON EGYPTIAN- SYRIAN REALTIONSIP AND UNLESS DAMASCUS AND CAIRO AGREE ON HOW TO DEAL WITH LEBANON, CURRENT TALKS WERE LIKELY TO BE MORE FOR FORM THAN SUBSTANCE. IMAM SADR CLAIMS TO BE PROMOTING GOE-SARG RAPPROCHMENT AND OTHERS MAY BE DOING SAME. DOES EMBASSY DAMASCUS BELIEVE ASAD SO DETERMINED TO END FIGHTING THAT HE NOW WILLING TO PERMIT GOE TO PARTICIPANT IN SETTLEMENT?

MATTHEWS

LIMITED OFFICIAL USE

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DISCUSSIONS ON LEBANON CONTINUE
Date: 1976 September 16, 12:48 (Thursday)	Canonical ID: 1976CAIRO12517_b
Original Classification: LIMITED OFFICIAL USE	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Egypt Cairo	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Algeria Algiers \| Department of State \|Israel Tel Aviv \| Jordan Amman \| Kuwait Kuwait City \| Lebanon Beirut \| Libya Tripoli \| Russia Moscow \| Saudi Arabia Jeddah \| Secretary of State \| Sudan Khartoum \| Syria Damascus \| Tunisia Tunis \| United Kingdom London

SUMMARY: SADAT MEETS WITH GEMAYEL, SA’IB SALAM AND MUFTI HASAN KHALID. OTHER MEETINGS TAKE PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS. OPTIMISM STILL PREVAILS AMID TALK OF ROUND TABLE LEBANESE DISCUSSIONS IN CAIRO. SHI’ITE IMAM ANNOUNCES TOP LEVEL MEET- INGS BETWEEN GOE AND SARG ON LEBANON IN NEAR FUTURE. GEMAYEL DEINES THAT PHALANGE RECEIVING ISRAELI ARMS AND BLAMES IN- TERNATIONAL LEFT FOR LEBANESE CRISIS. APPOINTMENT OF CHAMOUN

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AS ACTIONG LEBANESE PRIMIN BRIEFLY REPORTED WITHOUT COMMENT. END SUMMARY

1. PARADE OF LEBANESE LEADERS TO EGYPT CONTINUES. PRES SADAT MET 15 SEPT IN MIT ABU AL-KOM WITH PHALANGIST LEADER GEMAYEL, WITH DEPRIMIN FONMIN FAHM IN ATTENDANCE. FORMER PRIMIN SALAM MET OVER TWO HOURS WITH PRIMIN SALIM SEPT 15 AND WILL MEET WITH SADAT TODAY. SHAIKH HASAN KHALID, MUFTI OF LEBANON, WILL ALSO MEET (SEPARATELY) WITH SADAT TODAY. FAHMY MET WITH SHI’ITE IMAM MUSA SADR SEPT 15 AND MINCULTURE AND INFO OTEIFY MET WITH GEMAYEL, PRESUMABLY AFTER LATTER’S TALK WITH SADAT. LOCAL JOURNALISTS TELL US THAT CONSID- ERABLE PUBLICITY GIVEN TO MEETING SEPT 15 BETWEEN PRIMIN KARAMI AND BASHIR GEMAYEL, WHO APPARENTLY VISITING IN CAIRO WITH HIS FATHER.

2. LOCAL DAILES INDICATE THAT JUMBLATT VISIT HAD BEEN DELAYED BECAUSE HE UNWILLING TO TRAVEL TO DAMASCUS TO TAKE PLANE TO CAIRO. NOW JUMBLATT REPORTEDLY WILL TAKE SPECIAL AL PLANE FROM BEIRUT AIRPORT DIRECTLY TO CAIRO ON UNSPECIFIED DATE.

3. MOOD OF LOCAL DAILIES RE LEBANESE DISCUSSIONS CONTINUES HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC AND PAPERS CITE SPECULATION OF “POLITICAL SOURCES IN BEIRUT” THAT ROUND TABLE DISCUSSIONS OF PARTIES INVOLVED IN LEBANON MAY BE HELD (DATE UNSPECIFIED) AT QUBA PALACE IN CAIRO UNDER SUPERVISION OF PRES SADAT HIMSELF.

4. IMAM MUSA SADR AGAIN RECEIVES CONSIDERABLE PLAY IN LOCAL PRESS. SADR STATED HE CONFIDENT LEBANESE CRISIS WILL END WITHININ MONTH AND THAT “PRACTICAL STEPS WILL BE TAKEN WITHIN A WEEK” TO RESTORE SECURITY TO LEBANON. HE SPECULATED THAT “TOP LEVEL MEETINGS” BETWEEN EGYPTIAN AND SYRIAN OFFICIALS WILL BE HELD IN COMING FEW DAYS NOW THAT “ACCUMULATED DIFFERENCES IMPEDING SYRIAN-EGYPTIAN SOLIDARITY HAVE BEEN REMOVED.” SADR AFFIRMED THAT LEBANESE SOLUTION IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT EGYPTIAN-SYRIAN SOLIDARITY AND COOPERATION.

5. IN INTERVIEW WITH AKHBAR ARAB AFFAIRS EDITOR, GEMAYEL STATED THAT ALL LEBANESE SUPPORT PALESTINIAN CAUSE BUT “SABOTEURS USED BY INTERNATIONAL LEFT” RESPONSIBLE FOR

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CURRENT PHALANGE OPPOSITION TO SOME PLO ELEMENTS. GEMAYEL NOTED THAT SYRIA MEMBER OF AL AND UN AND HAS PLEDGED, AS RESPONSIBLE MEMBER OF WORLD COMMUNITY, TOWITHDRAW FROM LEBANESE TERRITORY WHEN LEGITIMATE LEBANESE AUTHORITY SO REQUESTS. AT PRESENT, LEBANON “DROWNING PERSON CLINGING TO STRAW (SYRIA) AND THIS SITUATION CAUSED BY INTERNATIONAL LEFT AND COMMUNISTS WHO ATTACKING LEBANON.” GEMAYEL STRONGLY DENIED THAT PHALANGISTS RECEIVING ISRAELI ARMS AND STATED THAT PICKTURES OF PHALANGIST FORCES WEARING CROSSES WHILE KILLING MUSLIMS MERELY CHEAP WEAPON IN HANDS OF TRAITORS AND SPIES WHO TRYING TO CAUSE SECTARIAN STRIFE IN LEBANON.

6. GOVT MODIFICATIONS ANNOUNCED SEPT 15 BY FRANJIYA, STRIPPINGKARAMI OF PORTFOLIOS OF DEFENSE, FINANCE AND INFORMATION AND NAMING CHAMOUN ACTING PRIMIN NOTED WITHOUT MUCH COMMENT IN CAIRO DAILIES AND GEMAYEL STATEMENT THAT HE HAD BEEN UNAWARE OF THIS IMPENDING ACTION DULY NOTED BY PRESS. NO SPECULATION AS TO SIGNIFICANCE OF MOVES BY FRANJIYA, EIGHT DAYS BEFORE INSTALLATION OF SARKIS, CARRIED IN LOCAL PRESS OTHER THAN ANODYNE COMMENT THAT WITH CHAMOUN AS ACT- ING PRIMIN, FRANJIYA AND CHAMOUN CAN CONVENE CABINET MEET- INGS AND MAKE DECISIONS IN ABSENCE OF KARAMI. NEWS OF FRAN- JIYA MOVE MAY HAVE COME TOO LATE FOR EXTENSIVE PRESS COMM- ENTARY SEPT 16.

7. COMMENT: LOCAL MOOD OF OPTIMISM REGARDING LEBANESE TALKS STILL PREVAILS ALTHOUGH FRANJIYA-CHAMOUN MOVE AGAINST KARAMI, WHICH UNDERCUTS SARKIS BEFORE HE EVEN ASSUMES OFFICE, CERTAINLY STRIKES AMINOUS NOTE. THERE NO SPECULATION IN LOCAL PRESS AS TO WHETHER CHAMOUN DISCUSSED MOVE AGAINST KARAMI DURING MOST RECENT VISIT TO DAMASCUS, BUT MOVE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REMIND LEBANESE VISITORS TO CAIRO THAT THEY HAD BETTER NOT FORGET CHRISTIAN HARD LINERS. AS YET, THERE NO SPECULATION FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OR IN LOCAL DAILIES AS TO HOW AND WHEN CAHAMOUN AND HIS NLP FORCES CAN BE BROUGHT INTO LINE.

MATTHEWS

LIMITED OFFICIAL USE

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LEBANESE NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE
Date: 1976 September 17, 11:52 (Friday)	Canonical ID: 1976CAIRO12588_b
Original Classification: LIMITED OFFICIAL USE	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Egypt Cairo	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: AMEBASSY TUNIS \| AMEMBSSY ALGIERS \| Department of State \| Israel Tel Aviv \| Jordan Amman \| Kuwait Kuwait City \| Lebanon Beirut \| Libya Tripoli \|Russia Moscow \| Saudi Arabia Jeddah \|Secretary of State \| Sudan Khartoum \|Syria Damascus \| USMISSIN SINAI \|United Kingdom London

1. ALTHOUGH SADAT SUCCESS IN PRESIDENTIAL REFERENDUM DOMINATES FRONT PAGES OF CAIRO DAILES SEPT 17, MEETING WITH LEBANESE LEADERS NONETHELESS CONTINUE IN EGYPT, ALTHOUGH TONE OF PRESS TREATMENT SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS. SADAT HELD FOUR-HOUR MEETING MEETING AT MIT ABU AL-KOM WITH FORMER PRIMIN SA’IB SALAM, WHO CAME OUT STRONGLY IN PRESS

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STATEMENT AFTER MEETING FOR RESTORATION OF EGYPTIAN/SYRIAN SOLIDARITY. EXPRIMIN TAQI AL-DIN AL-SULH TO ARRIVE SEPT 17, BUT MAJOR FOCUS OF DAILIES ON UPCOMING ISMAILIYYA MEETING BETWEEN SADAT AND SARKIS SEPT 18.

2. PHALANGE LEADER GEMAYEL AND PARTY DEPARTED CAIRO FOR DAMASCUS SEPT 16. IN DEPARTURE STATEMENT, GEMAYEL REITERATED SYRIAN WILLINGNESS TO WITHDRAW SHOULD LEBANESE GOVT SO REQUEST, AND NOTED THAT THERE NO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN AL PEACE-KEEPING FORCES AND SYRIAN FORCES IN LEBANON. GEMAYEL ALSO CAME OUT STRONGLY FOR EGYPTIAN/SYRIAN REAPPROACHMENT AS SINE QUA NON FOR SETTLEMENT OF LEBANESE CRISIS.

3. EGYPTIAN DAILIES SEPT 17 HAD HAD SUFFICIENT TIME TO DIGES RECENT CABINET CHANGES EFFECTED BY FRANJIYA AND CAME OUT STRONGLY AGAINST ASSUMPTION BY CHAMOUN OF PRIMIN KARAMI’S FINANCE, INFO AND DEFENSE PORTFOLIOS AND OF ACTING PRIMIN- ISTERSHIP. KARAMI DENUNCIATION OF FRANJIYA MOVES COVERED EXTENSIVELY IN LOCAL DAILIES, WHICH ALSO REPORT DENUNCIATION OF CHANGES BY MUSLIM CIRCLES IN LEBANON. PHALANGE INSISTENCE THAT BEMAYEL HAD NOT BEEN CONSULTED IN ADVANCE ALSO REITERATED IN PRESS COVERAGE.

4. AGAIN SYRIAN EFFORTS ON NEGOTIATING FRONT VIRTUALLY IG- NORED BY CAIRO DAILIES. ONLY MENTION OF UPCOMING SHUTURA MEETINGS BETWEEN ARAFAT, SARKIS AND DEP SYRIAN DEFMIN NAJI JAMIL APPEARS ON BACK PAGES OF CAIRO DAILIES, TACKED ON TO END OF STORIES ON CAIRO DELIBERATIONS.

5. MENA DEVOTES CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION SEPT 17 TO REMARKS BY DAMASCUS-BASED GREEK ORTHODOX PATRIARCH ELIAS IV OF ANTIOCH WHO REPORTEDLY ISSUED STATEMENT THAT LEBANESE CRISIS NOT IN ESSENCE RELIGIOUS AND THAT ALLEGATIONS TO CONTRARY MERELY IMPERIALIST MACHINATIONS. PATRIARCH ELIAS REPORTEDLY PRIASED POPULAR DISTURBANCES ON WEST BANK AND CALLED FOR DIALOGUE BETWEEN MUSLIMS AND CHRISTIANS IN ARAB WORLD.

6. COMMENT: MOVE BY FRANJIYA/CHAMOUN AGAINST PRIMIN KARAMI APPEARS TO HAVE CAUGHT GOE BY SURPRISE AND DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT PRESS EUPHORIA OVER CAIRO NEGOTIATIONS OF PAST FEW

LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 03 CAIRO 12588 171448Z

DAYS, THOUGH OPTIMISM CONTINUES REIGN AT MFA, WHICH IS BANK- ING ON SARKIS VISIT TO MOVE PEACE PROCESS ALONG. IN ADDITION, POTENTIAL RESULTS OF SARKIS/ARFAT/JAMIL MEETINGS NOT YET CLEAR IN CAIRO. POSSIBLY GOE AWAITING SOME SYRIAN INITIATIVE AS PARADE OF POENTIAL MEDIATORS (SHI’ITE IMAM MUSA SADR, GEMAYEL, SALAM) RETURNS TO DAMASCUS TO REPORT THEIR FINDINGS TO PRES ASAD.

MATTHEWS

LIMITED OFFICIAL USE

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You might also like:

The War Files (Part I) – The Chaos Before The War: 1973-1974

The War Files (Part II) – 1975 and 1976: Karami The Presidential Candidate, “Hafez Assad The Latest Incarnation Of the Crusaders”, and “A Certain Brigadier Aoun”

The War Files (Part III) – The Brown-Chamoun Meetings Of 1976

The War Files (Part IV) – Meeting Kamal Jumblatt

The War Files (Part V) – Meeting Saeb Salam

The War Files (Part VI) – Elias Sarkis, The Forgotten Wartime President

The War Files (Part VI) – Elias Sarkis, The Forgotten Wartime President

Elias Sarkis, President of Lebanon (1976-1982)

The new generation of Lebanese probably never heard of the Lebanese wartime president Elias Sarkis. In this post, you’ll find cables covering his election (December 1975 till May 1976) and the time before he took power (May 1976 till September 1976)

ELIAS SARKIS
Date: 1975 December 24, 09:18 (Wednesday)	Canonical ID: 1975BEIRUT15516_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006
To: Department of State \| Secretary of State

1. HAD LONG TALK WITH ELIAS SARKIS LAST EVENING. HE HAD EARLIER EXPRESSED TO 4 OR 5 PEOPLE HIS DEEP PESSIMISM WHICH HAD ONLY HIT HIM YESTERDAY MORNING. HERETOFORE HE HAD BEEN RELATIVELY OPTIMISTIC FOLLOWING FRANGIE AND KARAME STATEMENTS SUBSEQUENT TO COUVE DE MURVILL MISSION. THERE STATEMENTS IT WILL RE- CALLED INDICATED AREAS OF NEGOTIATION AND GIVE-AND-TAKE ON BOTH SIDES. SARKIS HAD BEEN CONVINCED THAT THIS WAS MOST SIGNIFICANT AND VEN SUCH “DISASTERS” AS DEC 6 MASSACRES WOULD NOT IN HIS VIEW ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEGOTIATIONS AT THE VERY TOP.

2. YESTERDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, HE HAD BEEN INFORMED BY A MAN IN WHOM HE HAS TOTAL CONFIDENCE THAT FRANGIE HAS RE- TREATED COMPLETELY FROM HIS MODERATE POSITION AND IS IN A LESS CONCILIATORY MOOD THAN EVER HERETOFORE. ACCORDING TO SARKIS, HE IS NOW CONVINCED THAT PARTITION IS THE ONLY RECOURSE, AND HE AND HIS SON TONY ARE OPENLY ADVOCATING SUCH ACTION– TONY PUBLICLY AND THE PRESIDENT PRIVATELY.

3. IN PRIVATE CONVERSATION WITH ME, SARKIS SAID THAT FOR THE FIRST TIME HE WAS AT A TOTAL LOSS OF WHERE TO GO AS LONG AS FRANGIE CONTINUED TO BE PRESIDENT. HE ALSO OPINED

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 BEIRUT 15516 241021Z

THAT CHAMOUN WAS EQUALLY, IF NOT EVEN MORE, INTRANSIGENT. SARKIS DOES NOT RPT NOT CURRENTLY SEE A GROUP OF EFFECTIVE MODERATE MARONITES BEING FORMED AND NOTES THAT THE WEAPONS AND THE DEMAGOGUERY ARE ALL IN THE HANDSIK OF THE LUNATIC ELEMENTS.

4. SARKIS SAID HE IS PROCEEDING JAN 4 TO IMF INTERIM COMMITTEE AT JAMAICA. THIS MEETING WILL TAKE 4 OR 5 DAYS, AND I ASKED HIM IF HE WERE PLANNING TO VISIT WASHINGTON. HE SAID HE HAD NO INTENTION OF SO DOING, AND WHEN I INQUIRED WHETHER HE WOULD DO SO IF II WERE CONSIDERED HELPFUL, HE SAID HE COULD ALWAYS TRY.

5. SARKIS IS DEFINITELY NOT RRPT NOT LOOKING FOR A TRIP TO WASHINGTON. IT HAS, HOWEVER, OCCURED TO ME THAT WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING A SERIES OF RELATIVE IDIOTS SUCH AS RAYMOND EDDE, CHARLES MALIK, ETC., AND THERE MIGHT BE SOMETHING TO BE GAINED IN MEETING WITH ONE OF THE FEW STILL STABLE AND REATIONAL LEBANESE. AS DEPARTMENT IS AWARE, SARKIS IS DEFINITELY STILL AMONG THE 4 OR 5 LEADING CONDIATES FOR THE PRESIDENCY, AND WHILE HE IS DOING NOTHING TO ADVANCE HIS POSITION, HE IS HIGH ON EVERY POLL. I CANNOT GUARANTEE THAT SARKIS WOULD FIND IT POSSIBLE TO VISIT WASHINGTON, BUT IF DEPARTMENT BE- LIEVES IT MIGHT BE HELPFUL, I THINK THERE IS A 50-50 CHANCE IT COULD BE ARANGED. PLEASE INSTRUCT.

GODLEY

CONFIDENTIAL

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ELIAS SARKIS
Date: 1975 December 30, 00:50 (Tuesday)	Canonical ID: 1975STATE304130_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Department of State	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006
To: Lebanon Beirut

1. WE HAVE BEEN GIVING CAREFUL CONSIDERATION TO YOUR OBSERVATION THAT IT COULD BE HELPFUL TO RECEIVE SARKIS IN WASHINGTON FOLLOWING HIS VISIT TO JAMAICA. WE SHARE YOUR GOOD OPINION OF THE MAN AND, UNDER MOST CIRCUMSTANCES, WOULD LIKE TO ENCOURAGE A WASHINGTON VISIT. OUR VIEWS, HOWEVER, ARE COLORED BY SEVERAL CONSIDERATIONS.

2. WE DO NOT WANT TO APPEAR IN LEBANESE EYES, AT THIS TIME AT LEAST, TO BE TAKING THE INITIATIVE FOR A VISIT BY A POSSIBLE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL SPECULATION THIS MIGHT GENERATE, THE END RESULT MIGHT BE A POISONOUS KISS TO A MAN WHO OTHERWISE MIGHT BE CONSIDERED A REASONABLE COMPROMISE REPLACEMENT FOR FRANGIE. IF SARKIS HAD, LIKE EDDE, TAKEN THE INITIATIVE, WE WOULD OF COURSE HAVE MADE SUITABLE AND SIMILAR ARRANGEMENTS.

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 STATE 304130

3. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS THAT MAJOR US OFFICIALS WHO SHOULD RECEIVE SARKIS ON SUCH VISIT WILL BE HEAVILY ENGAGED IN PREPARATIONS FOR SC DEBATE, ISRAELI VISITORS, AND RE- LATED MATTERS. 4. SINCE SARKIS IS NOT LOOKING FOR SUCH A VISIT, AND SINCE YOU HAVE NOT ENCOURAGED HIM, WE ASSUME YOU WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM IN YOUR SUBSEQUENT CONTACTS. YOU MAY WISH TO TELL SARKIS, HOWEVER, THAT WE HAVE GREATLY VALUED HIS THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS ON THE LEBANESE SITUATION AND TRUST THAT THE TWO OF YOU WILL REMAIN IN FREQUENT CONTACT.

ROBINSON CONFIDENTIAL

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DISCUSSION WITH CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR AND PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL ELIAS SARKIS
Date: 1976 April 4, 19:41 (Sunday)	Canonical ID: 1976BEIRUT02941_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Department of State \| Secretary of State

1. MET WITH CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR ELIAS SARKIS APRIL 3. SARKIS AND RAYMOND EDDE ARE THE TWO LEADERS IN THE PRESIDENTIAL SWEEPSTAKES. SARKIS LOST TO FRANGIE BY ONE VOTE IN 1970.

2. SARKIS RECALLED THAT HE HAD WORKED MANY YEARS FOR FORMER PRESIDENT CHEHUB AND THAT HE FULLY BACKED CHEHAB’S BASIC IDEAS OF CLOSER AND MORE EQUITABLE COOPERATION WITH THE MOSLEMS AND THE NEED FOR SOCIAL REFORM. HOWEVER, HE CONCENTRATED ON THE QUESTION OF SECURITY. IT WAS IMPOSSIBLE FOR ANY CABINET OR ANY NEW PRESIDENT TO CARRY ON IF THERE DID NOT EXIST A SECURITY FORCE. FOR THIS REASON, HE THOUGHT IT WAS ADVISABLE FOR SYRIAN MILITARY INTERVENTION TO TAKE PLACE.

3. I POINTED OUT TO SARKIS THAT SYRIAN MILITARY INTER- VENTION WAS A VERY DANGEROUS MEASURE AND COULD TRIGGER A REACTION FROM ISRAEL. I ASKED HIM THEREFORE IF THERE WAS NO ALTERNATIVE TO MAINTAINING SECURITY. IN REPLY SARKIS STATED THAT IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE TO PUT TOGETHER SOME SORT OF UNIFIED SECURITY FORCE BY DRAWING ON THE ARMED FORCES OF THE RIGHT, THE LEFT AND THE PALESTINIANS. HE WAS NOT COMPLETELY SURE THAT THIS COULD WORK,BUT,

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 BEIRUT 02941 042052Z

GIVEN THE PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES, IT WAS OBVIOUS THAT A LOT WOULD DEPEND ON PALESTINIAN COOPERATION.

4. ALTHOUGH HE LACKS CHARISMA, SARKIS MAKES A VERY GOOD IMPRESSION. HE OBVIOUSLY HAS A VERY GOOD GRASP OF THE EXISTING POLITICAL REALITIES AND HE HAS THE REPUTATION OF BEING AN EXPERIENCED, FIRST RATE MANAGER.

BROWN

CONFIDENTIAL

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WHAT NEXT FOR LEBANON?
Date: 1976 April 20, 16:18 (Tuesday)	Canonical ID: 1976STATE095348_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Department of State	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Secretary of State \| US Delegation Secretary

1. SUMMARY: THIS CABLE ATTEMPTS TO SET FORTH SOME OF THE PROBLEMS A NEW LEBANESE GOVERNMENT WILL CONFRONT ON WHICH IT WILL HAVE TO ACT. ADDED TOGETHER, POLITICAL, SOCIAL, SECURITY AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS ARE QUITE DEPRESSING. IT WILL TAKE BETTER LEADERSHIP THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST IN LEBANON. ALL THIS IS PREDICATED ON THE ASSUMP- TION THAT THE GENERALLY AGREED TO PROCESS OF INSTALLING A NEW PRESI- DENT WILL MOVE FORWARD, PERHAPS BY FITS AND STARTS, BUT THAT IT WILL SOMEHOW WORK. END SUMMARY. 2. THE CONCLUSION THAT STANDS OUT MOST VIVIDLY IS THAT AN ENORMOUS BUNDLE OF PROBLEMS WILL SUDDENLY FALL ON THE SHOULDERS OF THE UNLUCKY MAN SELECTED AS PRESIDENT. THESE WILL BE NOT ONLY PROBLEMS

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 STATE 095348 TOSEC 100098

INHERENT IN HIS LONG-TERM TASK OF RESURRECTING LEBANON, BUT ALSO ONES DELIBERATELY POSTPONED FROM THE PRESENT PERIOD. FOR REASONS OF POLITICAL EXPEDIENCY, FOR EXAMPLE, IT IS CONSIDERED BEST TO SWEEP THE ISSUE OF POLITICAL RESTRUCTURING UNDER THE RUG WHILE THE PRESIDENTIAL “CAMPAIGN” GOES ON. THE DIFFICULTY IS THAT SUCH QUESTIONS FALLING ON TOP OF OTHERS MAY GIVE THE PRESIDENT TOO OVER- WHELMING A TASK ALL AT ONCE. THE ISSUES FACING THE NEW PRESIDENT WILL FALL INTO THREE GENERAL AREAS: (A) RESTORING SECURITY AND GOVERNMENT AUTHORITY; (B) POLITICAL REFORMS: (C) RECONSTRUC- TION.

4. RESTORING SECURITY AND GOVERNMENT AUTHORITY: YOU CANNOT BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT AN EARLY RENEWAL OF LAW AND ORDER AFTER THE COLLAPSE OF AUTHORITY THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE. LEBANON TODAY IS A LAND OF “TURFS” RUN (WHEN RUN AT ALL) BY ARMED GROUPS. THESE ARE OFTEN MUTUALLY HOSTILE. CLASHES CAN ARISE AT THE DROP OF A HAT — ESPECIALLY, BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY, ACROSS THE CHRISTIAN-MOSLEM DIVIDING LINES. THE SLIGHTEST INCIDENT CAN SPARK A BIG BLOW-UP. PROVOCATEURS OF ONE EXTREME OR THE OTHER ARE ALWAYS READY TO PROVIDE THE SPARK. EXTREMISTS OF THE LEFT AND PALESTINIAN REJECTIONISTS ARE A PARTICULAR MENACE. WHEN ONE ADDS TO THIS THE EASE WITH WHICH OUTSIDE POWERS SUCH AS LIBYA, IRAQ, AND EGYPT CAN STIMULATE INTRANSIGENCE IN VARIOUS GROUPS AND PARTIES, THE DIFFICULTY OF RESTORING EVEN A MINIMUM OF SECURITY IS APPARENT.

5. FOR AN INDEFINITE PERIOD, SYRIA WILL HAVE TO PROVIDE THE COVER FOR THE LEBANESE GOVERNMENT’S RENEWAL. ALONG WITH THIS, DE FACTO PARTITION WILL HAVE TO BE ACCEPTED, AS CHRISTIAN MILITIAS POLICE CHRISTIAN AREAS AND THE DISPARATE AND NOT ALWAYS MUTUALLY FRIENDLY MOSLEMS/LEFTIST/PALESTINIAN GROUPS POLICE THE REST. THE RESTBRED HIGHER MILITARY COMMITTEE PROVIDES THE FRAMEWORK FOR THIS SCHEME; SOMETHING LIKE IT WILL HAVE TO BE CONCOCTED AFTER THE NEW PRESIDENT IS ELECTED. THE OVER-ALL PURPOSE WILL BE TO ELIMINATE THE DE FACTO PARTITION AND THE SYRIAN COVER GRADUALLY, PUTTING IN THEIR PLACE A NEW LEBANESE AUTHORITY. SETBACKS ARE PROBABLY INEVITABLE, BUT HOPEFULLY MANAGEABLE. ANY SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN SECURITY IS APT TO MAKE CHRISTIAN HARDLINERS FREEZE.

6. THE GOL NOT LONGER HAS ANY SERVICE CAPABLE OF MAIN-

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 STATE 095348 TOSEC 100098

TAINING INTERNAL SECURITY. POLICE FORCE CANNOT BE RE- ORGANIZED AND GIVEN CAPABILITY OF SUPPRESSING INSURRECTION QUICKLY ENOUGH. POLARIZATION OF THE ARMY HAS INCREASED DURING LATEST ROUND OF FIGHTING, AND ITS RECONSTRUCTION AS A NATIONAL ARMY WOULD TAKE AT LEAST TWO YEARS. HOWEVER, A MOBILE BRIGADE MIGHT BE READY IN 6-12 MONTHS. IN THE INTERIM, AN EXTERNAL MILITARY FORCE WOULD BE REQUIRED TO RESTORE LAW AND ORDER, PENDING DEVELOPMENT OF A NATIONAL CAPABILITY, OR IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO REACH AGREEMENT ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A PROVISIONAL FORCE FROM THE VERIOUS WARRING FACTIONS.

7. A LATENT PROBLEM LIKELY TO ARISE WHEN THE BARE BONES OF AUTHORITY ARE RECREATED IS LEBANESE NATIONAL FEELING AGAINST SYRIA. THE DEFEATIST MOOD OF MOST LEBANESE TODAY PROBABLY GIVES DAMSACUS SOME TIME BEFORE THIS WILL BECOME A MAJOR PROBLEM, BUT IS IS AN EVER-PRESENT FEELING AND MUST BE EXPECTED TO EMERGE IN FORCE. BOTH RIGHTISTS AND LEFTISTS MAY VOICE IT, ALTHOUGH FOR DIFFERENT REASONS (RIGHTISTS SPEAKING OF LEBANESE “SOVERIGNTY” AND LEFTISTS CONSIDERING DAMASCUS AS A TRAITOR TO THE “PROGRESSIVE” CAUSE). THIS OF COURSE STRENGTHENS THE ARGUMENT FOR AN EARLY DEPARTURE OF SYRIAN MILITARY INFLUENCE. DAMASCUS WILL HAVE TO PLAY ITS GAME VERY CAREFULLY, STEERING CLEAR OF A DEPARTURE SO ABRUPT THAT IT LEAVES A POWER VACUUM AND ONE SO DELAYED THAT IT CREATES SUSPICION OF SYRIAN INTENTIONS IN THE MINDS OF LEBANESE. (WITH THE NEW SYRIAN-PALESTINIAN ACCORD ON LEBANON, WHERE THE PALESTINIANS ASSUME A GREATER ROLE FOR SECURITY, THIS SUSPICION COULD WELL BE TRANSFERRED TO THE LATTER.)

8. POLITICAL REFORMS. OF ALL THE PROBLEMS DUMPED ON THE NEW PRESIDENT, NONE WILL BE MORE THORNY THAN THE QUESTION OF POLITICAL REFORM. WHEN FRANGIE ANNOUNCED HIS 17- POINT PROGRAM IN FEBRUARY, THIS WAS FONDLY THOUGHT TO BE THE BASIS FOR THE “NEW LEBANON”. IT CONTAINED MAINLY POLITICAL CHANGES AND INVOLVED CONCESSIONS FROM BOTH CHRISTIANS AND MOSLEMS. DESPITE GRUMBLINGS BY THE LEFT ABOUT SOME OF THE POINTS, LEFTISTS WERE AT FIRST UNDERSTOOD TO HAVE ACQUIESCED. NOW THIS IS ALL UP IN THE AIR. IT HAS BEEN LEFT THAT WAY BY TACIT AGREEMENT, ON THEORY

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 STATE 095348 TOSEC 100098

THAT ELECTION OF NEW PRESIDENT SHOULD NOT BE COMPLICATED BY SUCH INTRACTABLE ISSUES.

9. THE HOPE IS THAT DEPARTURE OF FRANGIE WILL CLEAR THE AIR POLITICALLY AND ALLOW NEW MAN TO PUSH REFORMS WITH BROAD PUBLIC SUPPORT. THERE IS CERTAINLY BASIS FOR THIS HOPE. MAKING “SCAPEGOAT” OF FRANGIE WILL HELP CLEANSE SYSTEM SYMBOLICALLY OF OLD POLITICAL MENTALITY. HOWEVER, MORE IS INVOLVED THAN JUST PERSONALITIES. WRAPPED UP IN FRANGIE’S 17 POINTS ARE GUT ISSUES INVOLVING STRONG FEELINGS ON ALL SIDES. IT TOOK LABORIOUS NEGOTIATING TO ARRIVE AT 17 POINTS LAST FEBRUARY. ON CHRISTIAN SIDE, THEY EMBODIED “MINIMUM”GUARANTEE OF THEIR POLITICAL FUTURE WHILE GIVING LONG-SOUGHT GAINS TO MOSLEMS. ESTABLISH- MENT-MINDED CHRISTIANS AND MOSLEMS WERE BASICALLY SATISIFED WITH THE ACCORD. JUMBLATT, WHO HAS LONG CONSIDERED POLITICAL REFORM THE SPEARHEAD OF HIS PROGRAM, LATER MADE IT CLEAR HE WAS NOT SATISFIED. HE HAS BEEN A KEY FIGURE IN EROSION OF FRANGIE’S PROGRAM SINCE EARLY MARCH (ALTHOUGH HE GOT UNEXPECTED HELP FROM AHDAB’S COUP AND CANNOT FORGET HIS DEBT TO PALESTINIAN MUSCLE ON BATTLEFIELD). HE WILL CONTINUE TO PUCH FOR REVISION OF THE 17 POINTS. DESPITE THEIR REVERSES IN BATTLE, CHRISTIAN RIGHTISTS WILL STRUGGLE TO PRESERVE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE OF “GUARANTEE” TO WHICH THEY ADHERE EMOTIONALLY. TRADITIONAL MOSLEMS, IN PART THROUGH WEAKNESS AND IN PART THROUGH SECURITY THEY FEEL THAT DEMANDS WON WILL STICK, MAY SIT ON SIDELINES EXCEPT ON ISSUE OF SECULARIZATION. ALL IN ALL, THE NEW PRESIDENT’S PATH WILL LEAD STRAIGHT THROUGH A POLITICAL MINEFIELD. YET HE CANNOT AVOID CROSSING IT IF HE HOPES TO REACH THE “NEW LEBANON” THAT EVERYBODY DEMANDS.

10. FORTUNATELY, THE MINEFIELD IS NOT UNCHARTED. THE 17 POINTS WERE THE OUTGROWTH OF AN EARLIER SET OF 5 POINTS HAMMERED OUT IN LATE 1975 THROUGH SYRIAN MEDIATION. FOUR OF THESE POINTS WERE POLITICAL: (A) EQUAL CHRISTIAN- MOSLEM REPRESENTATION IN PARLIAMENT; (B) NAMING OF PRIME MINISTER BY THE PARLIAMENT; (C) ABOLITION OF CONFESSIONALISM IN GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT; (D) ESTAB- LISHMENT OF CONSTITUTIONAL COURT. A SEPARATE POINT STATING THE PALESTINIANS WOULD ABIDE BY CARIRO AGREEMENT

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 05 STATE 095348 TOSEC 100098

ALSO EMERGED LATER AS A COROLLARY TO THE 17 POINTS. THE LEFT’S ACCEPTANCE OF THE 5 POINTS WAS LESS AMBIGUOUS THAN IT EVER WAS FOR FRANGIE’S PROGRAM. THERE IS ALSO INDICATION THAT IT WOULD ACCEPT THE TRADITION OF A MARONITE PRESIDENT, A SUNNI PREMIER AND A SHIITE SPEAKER FOR THE TIME BEING, ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT BEEN MADE TOO CLEAR. BY FOCUSING ON THESE MORE FIRMLY ACCEPTED POINTS, THE NEW PRESIDENT COULD HOPE TO GET POLITICAL NEGOTIATIONS REASONABLY FAR ALONG WITHOUT MISHAP.

11. HIS MAIN PROBLEMS WOULD BE THREE, AS WE SEE IT: (A) THE PARTS OF THE 17 POINTS REPRESENTING COUNTER- CONCESSIONS TO CHRISTIANS; (B) THE EXTENT OF DECON- FESSIONALIZATION IN THE GOVERNMENT; (C) THE FUTURE OF THE PLESTINIANS. THE FIRST OF THESE ISSUES CENTERS ESPECIALLY ON A PROVISION IN FRANGIE’S PROGRAM THAT A TWO-THIRDS OVTE WILL BE NEEDED IN PARLIAMENT ON UNSPECIFIED “IMPORTANT MATTERS” AND THAT A 55-0/0 VOTE WILL BE NEEDED TO ELECT A PRESIDENT ON THE SECOND AND SUBSEQUENT BALLOTS (TWO-THIRDS ALREADY BEING REQUIRED ON THE FIRST BALLOT). THE LEFT HAS OBJECTED TO THE 55-0/0 IDEA. ITS RETENTION SYMBOLIZES FOR CHRISTIANS THEIR FUTURE POLITICAL SAFETY AND WE EXPECT THEY WILL HOTLY CONTEST ITS BEING DROPPED. ON THE DECONFESSIONALIZATION ISSUE, THE 17 POINTS MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY AWAY FROM CONFESSIONALISM BUT KEPT IT FOR POSTS OF DIRECTOR GENERAL LEVEL AND ABOVE. AS FOR THE PALESTINIANS, IT WAS A QUESTION EVEN UNDER THE 17 POINTS HOW FAR THEY WOULD AGREE TO GO BACK TO THE CAIRO AGREEMENT. THIS IS STILL A MAJOR UNKNOWN. (IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW THE CAIRO AGREEMENT CAN BE OBSERVED IF THE PALESTINIANS HAVE A MAJOR POLICING ROLE, AS IS NOW THE CASE.) IN THESE STRUGGLES, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN JUMBLATT AND THE EXTREMISTS IN HIS CAMP AND ON THE EVEN MORE TRICKY INTERACTIONS INVOLVING ARAFAT, SAIQA AND THE REJECTIONISTS AMONG THE PALESTINIANS. THE ATTITUDE OF THE “CHRISTIAN REJECTION FRONT” ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FENCE MAY ALSO COMPLICATE THINGS.

12. AN IDEA THAT THE NEW PRESIDENT COULD USEFULLY PICK

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 06 STATE 095348 TOSEC 100098

UP IS THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE DEFUNCT NATIONAL DIALOGUE COMMITTEE, OR SOMETHING RESEMBLING IT. HONORING IT MIGHT MOLLIFY HIM TEMPORARILY AND THEREBY GIVE THE PRESIDENT TIME TO SORT OUT THE ISSUES. THE DIALOGUE TECHNIQUE IS, IN FACT, MORE THAN JUST A GIMMICK. THE COMMITTEE THAT MET LAST AUTUMN PROVIDED A FORUM FOR AIRING SENSITIVE ISSUES, SOMETHING THAT MAY BE EVEN MORE IMPORTANT IN THE WEEKS AND MONTHS AHEAD. THE MAIN PITFALL IS THAT SUCH A GROUP CAN PLAUSIBLY BE SAID TO UNDERMINE PARLIA- MENT’S AUTHORITY. THIS CLAIM WAS MADE ABOUT THE EARLIER COMMITTEE. BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPOSSIBLE OBJECTION TO OVERCOME IN THESE CRITICAL TIMES THAT REQUIRE EXTRA- ORDINARY METHODS.

13. RECONSTRUCTION. THE PUBLIC SECTOR WILL BE OBLIGED TO PLAY AN UNPRECEDENTED ROLE IN THE RECONSTRUCTION OF LEBANON, FIRST BECAUSE OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JOB TO BE DONE, SECONDLY BECAUSE THE PRIVATE SECTOR IS NO LONGER PREPARED TO ASSUME ITS TRADITIONAL ROLE OF LEADERSHIP UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS RESTORED. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE FACT THAT THE PUBLIC SECTOR IS NOT IN A POSITION TO DO THE JOB. THERE AR ONLY A HANDFUL OF COMPETENT CIVIL SERVANTS. MOST CIVIL SERVANTS ARE BADLY TRAINED AND OWE THEIR JOBS TO POLITICAL PATRONAGE.

14. ONE CAN ENVISAGE THE CREATION OF A SPECIAL OFFICE DIRECTLY UNDER THE PRESIDENT TO PLAN AND COORDINATE THE REBUILDING OF THE COUNTRY. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF WESTERN KNOW-HOW WILL BE REQUIRED AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW INTEREST, LONG-TERM CREDIT, PRESUMABLY FROM THE ARAB COUNTRIES, PERHAPS $1-2 BILLION AS A STARTER.

15. THE CONCEPT OF WESTERN KNOW-HOW JOINED WITH ARAB CAPITAL LENDS ITSELF WELL TO THE FORMATION OF A CONSORTIUM, THE MEMBERS OF WHICH WOULD OF COURSE HAVE TO BE SELECTED WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF EXISTING POLITICAL REALITIES, WHICH MEANS THE INCLUSION OF SYRIA REGARDLESS OF THE LATTER’S DEARTH OF CAPITAL AND/OR WESTERN KNOW-HOW.

16. THE PUBLIC SECTOR EFFORT, IT MUST BE STRESSED, WOULD SUPPLEMENT, OT REPLACE, THE PRIVATE SECTOR

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 07 STATE 095348 TOSEC 100098

EFFORT. ALMOST ALL OF THE COUNTRY’S NOT INCONSIDERABLE TALENT IS FOUND IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR. WHAT IS NEEDED IS AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF CREDIT UNDER FAVORABLE TERMS. ALSO NEEDED ARE GUARANTEES, GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES OR INSURANCE THAT THE COST OF THE OFFICE BUILDING RE- BUILT OR THE INVENTORIES REPLENISHED WOULD BE COVERED IF ONCE MORE DESTROYED. GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES ARE OF PARTICULAR IMPORTANCE TO INDUSTRY. NOT ONLY SHOULD LAWS BE PASSED TO GUARANTEE THE FOREIGN INVESTOR, BUT THE LEBANESE INVESTOR AS WELL.

17. INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TOURISM FOR JOINT COOPERATION BETWEEN THE TWO SECTORS. THIS HAS ALREADY EXISTED IN THE CASE OF TOURISM, BUT THE STATE’S ROLE IN PROVIDING THE NECESSARY INFRASTRUCTURE TO ALLOW FOR REAL INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT, AND SEEING TO IT THAT THIS IS NOT ALL CONCENTRATED IN BEIRUT, HAS EXISTED ON PAPER ONLY.

18. WHETHER BEIRUT WILL BECOME ONCE MORE A REGIONAL FINANCIAL CENTER WILL DEPEND NOT ONLY ON SECURITY BUT ON THE CONTINUATION OF A LIBERAL STYLE ECONOMY, THE ABSENCE OF CONTROLS ON CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND MAINTENANE OF THE BANK SECRECY LAWS. INDEED THE WHOLE RENEWAL OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR COULD ONLY BE ASSUMED IF THE COUNTRY CONTINUES TO FUNCTION UNDER A FREE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM.

19. IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR ROAD CONSTRUCTION AND PORT DEVELOPMENT REQUIRE PRIORITY AS AN AID TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR, BUT THE PUBLIC SECTOR WILL ALSO HAVE PRESSING PRIORITIES OF A SOCIAL NATURE. THESE INCLUDE SUBSIDIZED HOUSING, MORE SCHOOLS, AND AN END TO TAX EVASION ON THE PART OF THE WEALTHY.

20. IN THE MIDST OF ALL THE DESTRUCTION TO THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMY THE RELATIVE STABILITY OF THE LEVANESE POUND IS ONE OF THE BRIGHT SPOTS. THANKS TO A VERY CONSERVA- TIVE POLICY FOLLOWED SINCE THE INTRA BANK CRAS ROCKED THE COUNTRY, THE POUND HAS AN 80 PER CENT GOLD COVER AT THE OFFICIAL RATE OF $42 PER OUNCE. MOREOVER THE

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 08 STATE 095348 TOSEC 100098 LEBANESE

PUBLIC DEBT IS NEGLIGIVLE. LEBANON’S ABILITY TO CONTRIBUTE TO HELPING ITSELF THEREFORE IS BY NO MEANS INSIGNIFICAN.

21. A MAJOR EFFORT BY THE PUBLIC SECTOR TO RESTORE THE ECONOMY, IT SHOULD BE NOTED, WOULD TEND TO STRENGTHEN THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AND WORK AGAINST TRENDS TOWARD PARTITION.

BROWN

UNQTE ROBISNON

CONFIDENTIAL

<< END OF DOCUMENT >>

LEBANESE SITUATION 8 MAY 1976: CHANCE FOR ELECTION OF SARKIS TODAY IMPROVING
Date: 1976 May 8, 10:30 (Saturday)	Canonical ID: 1976BEIRUT04103_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Central Intelligence Agency \| Commander in Chief European Command Vaihingen Germany \| Defense Intelligence Agency \|Department of State \| Egypt Cairo \| Fleet Intelligence Center Europe and Atlantic \|Fleet Ocean Surveillance Information Facility Rota Spain \| France Paris \|Germany Stuttgart \| Greece Athens \| Iran Tehran \| Iraq Baghdad \| Israel Tel Aviv \|Jordan Amman \| Kuwait Kuwait City \|Saudi Arabia Jeddah \| Secretary of State \|Syria Damascus \| Task Force Six One \|Task Force Six Two \| United Kingdom London \| United Nations (New York) \|United States Sixth Fleet

1. AT NOON LOCAL TIME MAY 8, REMAINS UNCERTAIN THAT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAN BE HELD TODAY BUT CHANCES IMPROVING. SOME 64 DEPUTIES, INCLUDING SPEAKER KAMAL ASSAD, NOW REPORTED GATHERED AT VILLA MANSOUR IN MUSEUM ARE–BUT ROADS TO AREA IN WEST BEIRUT REMAIN BLOCKED, AND FIRING IN AUDIBLE IN SOME PARTS OF TOWN.

2. LATEST ALIGNMENT DEVELOPMENT IS DECLARATION OF SUPPORT FOR ELIAS SARKIS BY PARLIAMENT SPEAKER KAMAL ASSAD, ADDING SOME DOZEN OR SO VOTES TOWARD REQUISITE 66 TO ELECT PRESIDENT ON FIRST BALLOT.PHALANGE NOW FEEL IT HAS SUFFICIENT VOTES TO PUT SARKIS IN IF IT CAN GET PEOPLE TO A MEETING, WE UNDERSTAND THAT THE CANDIDACY OF SARKIS HAS ALSO BEEN ENHANCED BY A “NO OBJECTION” POSITION TAKEN BY FATAH.THIS DEVELOPMENT SEEN PARTIALLY AS RESULT OF RECENT MEETINGS BETWEEN ‘ARAFAT AND SYRIAN PRESIDENT HAFIZ AL-ASAD.

3. AS OF LATE LAST NIGHT, THERE WAS “NO RECONCILIA- TION” BETWEEN JUMBLATT AND ASAD, DESPITE ‘ARAFAT’S EFFORTS IN DAMASCUS. THERE IS GROWING FATAH IRRITATION WITH THE LEFT, PARTICULARLY JUMBLATT’S GROUP, OVER BEING “DRAGGED INTO” SITUATION. JUMBLATT IS INCREASINGLY IRRATIONAL ON SUBJECT OF SYRIA AND SEVERAL OF HIS MORE MODERATE AIDES HAVE BECOME DISENCHANTED BY THEIR RECENT INABILITY TO INFLUENCE HIS MOOD AND BEHAVIOR.

4. THE SITUATION ON THE GROUNG LIKEWISE REMAINS OMINOUS,PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FIGHTING APPEARS TO BE ON THE UPSWING WITH CHRISTIANS INCREAS- INGLY ON OFFENSIVE IN METN AREA, AGAINST AYNTURA AND MUTAYN. FIGHTING CONTINUES AS WELL BETWEEN ALEY AND KAHHALE AND WE UNDERSTAND THRE IS SOME FIGHTING IN NORTH LEBANON. JUMBLATT’S TRADITIONAL SHOUF AREA HAS TAKEN ON MORE AND MORE APPEARANCE OF AUTONOMOUS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 BEIRUT 04103 081204Z

ADMINISTRATION WITH ROAD TAXES IMPOSED. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE JUST OSTENTATIOUS DISPLAY OF ELECTION OPPOSITION.IN BEIRUT ROAD TRAFFIC AT STANDSTILL IN MANY AREAS DUE MANY LEFTIST ROADBLOCKS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN TO EMBASSY IS ROADBLOCK ON CORNICHE AT WHICH SEVERAL CARS HAVE BEEN BURNED SINCE THIS SECTOR BECAME ACTIVE ABOUT 0400 MAY 8 LOCAL. THE PALESTINE LIBERATION ARMY (PLA) REPORTED NOW TRYING TO OPEN CORNICHE BUT HAS NOT RPT NOT USED FORCE THUS FAR. ZTM OVERALL PROGNOSIS GRIM IF ELECTION DOES NOT COME OFF TODAY.MARONITE CIRCLES CONTINUE TO WORRY ABOUT SECURITY SITUATION BEFORE AND AFTER ELECTIONS AND SEEK ASSURANCES THAT U.S. WILL “DO SOMETHING.” THE DIS- APPEARANCE OF CAMILLE CHAMOUN’S NEPHEW STILL CONTRI- BUTING SUBSURFACE TENSION AND WE UNDERSTAND FATAH BELIEVES CHAMOUN DEAD BUT FEAR SAY SO LEAST LARGE SCALE CHRISTIAN REPRISALS.

6. EMBASSY IS TEMPORARILY PROHIBITING OFFICIALS FROM USE BEIRUT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. AIRPORT IS STILL OPERATIONAL,BUT ROAD TO AND FROM CITY VERY RISKY AT THIS TIME.

BROWN

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SARKIS ELECTED PRESIDENT OF LEBANON
Date: 1976 May 8, 13:42 (Saturday)	Canonical ID: 1976BEIRUT04110_b
Original Classification: UNCLASSIFIED	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Department of State \| Egypt Cairo \| Israel Tel Aviv \| Jordan Amman \| Saudi Arabia Jeddah \| Secretary of State \| Syria Damascus \| United Kingdom London \|United Nations (New York)

CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR ELIAS SARKIS WAS ELECTED 8 MAY PRESIDENT OF LEBANON. ON FIRST BALLOT, SARKIS RECEIVED 63 RPT 63 VOTES OF 69 RPT 69 DEPUTIES PRESENT AND VOTING. ON SECOND BALLOT, HOWEVER, HE RECEIVED 66 RPT 66 WHICH IS TWO-THIRDS OF ENTIRE CHAMBER. IN MEANTIME, WE HAVE SCATTERED REPORTS OF FIRING IN RAOUCHE AREA BETWEEN ELEMENTS OF SYRIAN-SPONSORED SA’IQA AND SUPPORTERS OF “PROGRESSIVE” LEADER KAMAL JUMBLATT.

BROWN

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THE FAILURE OF THE CHTAURA MEETINGS
Date: 1976 September 20, 16:12 (Monday)	Canonical ID: 1976BEIRUT07554_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Cyprus Nicosia \| Department of State \|Egypt Cairo \| Greece Athens \| Jordan Amman \| Saudi Arabia Jeddah \| Secretary of State \| Syria Damascus \| United Kingdom London

1. SUMMARY: TWO QUADRIPARTITE MEETINGS AT CHTAURA HAVE FAILED. NEXT MEETING SCHEDULED FOR SEPT. 24, DAY AFTER SARKIS’ EXPECTED INAUGURATION. PALESTINIANS MAY BE UNWILLING TO COMPROMISE UNTIL ASSURED THAT SARKIS HAS IN FACT BECOME PRESIDENT, OR THEY MAY BE FUNDAMENTALLY UNWILLING MAKE UNILATERAL CONCESSIONS DEMANDED BY SYRIANS. IF NEITHER SIDE IS WILLING TO COMPROMISE, LIKELIHOOD THAT FIGHTING WILL ESCALATE IS MEASURABLY INCREASED. END SUMMARY.

2. SECOND CHTAURA MEETING SEPT. 19 OF LEBANESE PRESIDENT-ELECT ELIAS SARKIS, PLO CHAIRMAN YASSER ARAFAT, SYRIAN VICE-MINISTER OF DEFENSE GENERAL NAJI

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JAMIL, AND ARAB LEAGUE DEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL HASSAN SABRI AL-KHOLI WAS, BY ALL ACCOUNTS, DISTINCT FAILURE. THE KEY ISSUE WAS AGAIN THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE PALESTINIANS/LEFTISTS FROM THEIR MOUNTAIN STRONGHOLDS IN THE HIGH METN. THE PALESTINIANS REPORTEDLY SAID THEY ARE READY TO WITHDRAW FROM THESE POSITIONS, BUT ONLY AS PART OF A COMPREHENSIVE AGREEMENT. AL-MUHARRIR SEPT. 19 PUT IT AS FOLLOWS: “THE RESISTANCE IS READY TO WITHDRAW FROM THE MOUNTAINS IN EXCHANGE FOR STRATEGIC WITHDRAWAL BY THE OTHER SIDES IN SUCH A MANNER THAT THE MILITARY BALANCE WILL BE MAINTAINED.” THE SYRIANS, APPARENTLY SUPPORTED BY SARKIS, CONTAINUED TO INSIST THAT PALESTINIAN/LEFTIST WITHDRAWAL MUST PRECEDE ANY DISCUSSION OF AN OVERALL CEASE-FIRE OR A SYRIAN PULLBACK. ON THE CAIRO ACCORDS, ARAFAT REPORTEDLY STATED THAT THE PLO IS READY TO FACILITATE SARKIS’S MISSION BY IMPLEMENTING THIS AGREEMENT, BUT WENT ON TO CALL FOR THE RETURN OF REFUGEES TO TEEL ZAATAR, NABAA AND THE KOURA. THE MEETING BROKE UP AFTER TWO HOURS OF FRUITLESS DISCUSSION, WITH THE PARTICIPANTS AGREEING TO MEET AGAIN ON SEPT. 24, THE DAY AFTER SARKIS IS SCHEDULED TO BE SWORN IN AS PRESIDENT.

3. THE FAILURE OF THE CHTAURA MEETING HAS CAST A PALL OF GLOOM OVER ALL BUT THE MOST OPTIMISTIC. GENERAL JAMIL COMMENTED, “WE DID NOT ACHIEVE A COMMON VIEWPOINT,” AND ADDED OMINOUSLY, “MEETINGS ARE NO LONGER NECESSARY.” PRESIDENT-ELECT SARKIS DECLINED COMMENT, AS IS HIS WONT, AND ARAFAT WAS ALSO SILENT. EVEN THE ETERNAL OPTIMIST (IN PUBLIC), AL REP AL-KHOLI, COULD ONLY SAY THAT MEETINGS WILL CONTINUE, BECAUSE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF THE SUBJECT.

4. COLLAPSE OF CHTAURA TALKS ALSO INCREASES THE TENSION SURROUNDING THE INAUGURATION OF PRESIDENT SARKIS. BOTH SIDES ARE ACCUSING THE OTHER OF WANTING TO FRUSTRATE THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH THE PLACE OF THE PARLIAMENTARY SESSION HAS NOT YET BEEN PUBLICLY ANNOUNCED, LATEST EXPECTATION IS THAT IT WILL BE HELD AT THE NATIONAL MUSEUM IN BEIRUT, WITHIN RANGE

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OF CHAMOUN’S “TIGER” MILITIA. CHAMOUN HAS ALREADY DECLARED THAT THIS SESSION MUST TAKE PLACE FOR SARKIS TO ASSUME OFFICE LEGALLY; HE MAY WELL USE HIS POWER TO EXTRACT CONCESSIONS FROM SYRIA AND/OR SARKIS IN EXCHANGE FOR NOT DISRUPTING THE CEREMONY.

5. SYRIA CONTINUES TO HOLD THE POSITION THAT ITS MILITARY PRESENCE IS NOT NEGOTIABLE BECAUSE IT IS NOT PART OF THE PROBLEM BUT OF THE SOLUTION. GEN. JAMIL’S REMARK THAT FURTHER MEETINGS UNNECESSARY SUGGESTS THAT SYRIA MAY BE RECONSIDERING THE MILITARY OPTION, BUT WE DOUBT SYRIA WILL MAKE ANY DRAMATIC MOVE BEFORE SARKIS’S INAUGURATION, WHICH THEY HAVE CONSISTENTLY SUPPORTED. IF SARKIS TAKES OFFICE WITHOUT INCIDENT, HE WILL GO INTO SEPT. 24 MEETING WITH THE FULL AUTHORITY OF HIS NEW OFFICE, AND MAY BE IN BETTER POSITION TO CONTROL EXTREMIST CHRISTIAN ELEMENTS AND TO ARRANGE COMPROMISE BETWEEN PLO AND SYRIA. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, SYRIA MIGHT SEND A HIGHEER-LEVEL REPRESENTATIVE, PREPARED TO MAKE A UNILATERAL GESTURE OF SUPPORT FOR THE NEW PRESIDENT. THERE ARE ALSO RUMORS THAT HIS PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS WILL OFFER “NEW DEAL” TO ALL LEBANESE AND MAY HELP PROMOTE A LEBANESE-LEBANESE DIALOGUE. POT CONTINUES TO BOIL, BUT WHAT KIND OF STEW WILL EMERGE IS UNCLEAR.

LANE

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WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN FOR ELIAS SARKIS TO BECOME PRESIDENT OF LEBANON?
Date: 1976 September 21, 15:48 (Tuesday)	Canonical ID: 1976BEIRUT07592_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Cyprus Nicosia \| Department of State \|Egypt Cairo \| France Paris \| Greece Athens \| Jordan Amman \| Saudi Arabia Jeddah \| Secretary of State \| Syria Damascus \| United Kingdom London

1. SUMMARY. OPINIONS ON WHAT JUDICIAL ACT IS NECESSARY FOR ELIAS SARKIS TO ASSUME OFFICE AS PRESIDENT SEP 23 VARY FROM NOTHING AT ALL TO OATH-TAKING BEFORE FULL SESSION OF PARLIAMENT IN BEIRUT. CAMILLE CHAMOUN IS THE MOST VOCAL SUPPORTER OF THIS LATTER INTERPRETATION AND STANDS TO GAIN THE MOST IF IT IS NOT FULFILLED. END SUMMARY.

2. FIVE DIFFERENT THEORIES AS TO WHAT IS REQUIRED FOR ELIAS SARKIS TO BECOME PRESIDENT OF LEBANON HAVE APPEARED IN

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RECENT WEEKS IN BEIRUT, AS FOLLOWS: A. AUTOMATIC ASSUMPTION OF OFFICE ON SEP 23, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT HE TAKES OATH OF OFFICE AT THAT TIME. HE WOULD, HOWEVER, HAVE TO TAKE OATH BEFORE PARLIAMENT SOON THEREAFTER. THIS VIEW APPEARS TO BE HELD BY PHALANGISTS AS WELL AS BY MOST ELEMENTS OF PALESTINIAN/ LEFTIST ALLIANCE. B. OATH IS ESSENTIAL, BUT CAN BE TAKEN ANYWHERE. THIS VIEW WAS WIDELY DISCUSSED IN BEIRUT SEVERAL WEEKS AGO. THEORY WAS THAT TAKING OF OATH WAS ESSENTIAL CONCIMITANT OF LEGAL ASSUMPTION OF POWERS BUT THAT VALIDITY OF OATH WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED IF IT WERE TAKEN OUTSIDE OF PARLIAMENTARY FORUM PRESCRIBED BY CONSTITUTION. ACCORDING TO THIS THEORY, OATH COULD BE TAKEN BEFORE ANY COMPETENT MAGISTRATE, SUCH AS OUTGOING PRESIDENT. C. OATH IS ESSENTIAL, BUT IF PARLIAMENT ITSELF CANNOT CONVENE, OATH MUST BE TAKEN BEFORE AT LEAST AN ADEQUATE REPRESENTATION OF PARLIAMENT, SUCH AS THE PRESIDENT OF THE PARLIAMENT (CURRENTLY KAMEL EL-ASSAD) OR THE PARLIAMENTARY ORGANIZING COMMITTEE. THIS IS VIEW OF LEGAL EXPERT PROFESSOR GEORGES VEDEL, WHICH WAS PRESENTED IN SEP 21 MEETING OF PARLIAMENTARY ORGANIZING COMMITTEE. IN THIS CASE, PROFESSOR VEDEL SAYS, MINUTES OF THE SESSION MUST BE RECORDED, SUBMITTED TO PARLIAMENT AT EARLIEST OPPORTUNITY, AND APPROVED BY PARLIAMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE EMERGING VIEW OF PARLIAMENTARY LEADERS. D. OATH MUST BE TAKEN BEFORE SESSION OF FULL PARLIAMENT, WITH QUORUM, BUT SESSION NEED NOT TAKE PLACE IN BEIRUT. CONSTITUTION SAYS PARLIAMENT SITS IN BEIRUT, BUT PRECEDENTS BOTH IN LEBANON AND ABROAD (PRINCIPALLY FRANCE, 1940) HAVE BEEN CITED TO JUSTIFY HOLDING SESSIONS ELSEWHERE FOR EXTRAORDINARY REASONS. THIS VIEW IS SUPPORTED BY THOSE, INCLUDING SYRIAN LEADERSHIP, WHO HAVE ADVOCATED HOLDING OF INAUGURAL SESSION AT SOFAR OR CHTAURA.

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E. OATH MUST BE TAKEN BEFORE SESSION OF FULL PARLIAMENT, WITH QUORUM, IN BEIRUT. THIS IS MOST RIGOROUS INTERPRETATION OF CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS AND PRECEDENTS. OBVIOUS CORROLLARY IS THAT, IF SESSION CANNOT TAKE PLACE, SARKIS DOES NOT BECOME PRESIDENT. MOST OUTSPOKEN ADVOCATE OF THIS VIEW IS CAMILLE CHAMOUN.

3. COMMENT: IF THE STRICT INTERPRETATION OF THE CONSTITUTION CANNOT BE FULFILLED, THE MAN WHO STANDS TO GGAIN THE MOST IS CAMILLE CHAMOUN. Q ACTING PRIME MINISTER HE WOULD BE LEGALLY ENTITLED TO ASSUME POWER AS ACTING HEAD OF STATE, AND HE MAY HAVE LEFT THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS IN OPEN SESSION DURING ITS SEP 20 MEETING PRECISELY TO FACILITATE THIS MOVE. QUARRELLING AMONG VARIOUS CHRISTIAN ARMED GROUPS (SITREPS SEP 20, 21) MAY REFLECT JOCKEYING FOR BEST POSITION ON GROUND SHOULD CHAMOUN INDEED SEEK TO ESTABLISH HIMSELF AS SUPREME POWER OF WHAT IS LEFT OF LEBANESE STATE BEGINNING SEP 23.

LANE

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ELIAS SARKIS BECOMES PRESIDENT OF LEBANON
Date: 1976 September 23, 11:19 (Thursday)	Canonical ID: 1976BEIRUT07625_b
Original Classification: LIMITED OFFICIAL USE	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Cyprus Nicosia \| DANASCUS \|Department of State \| Egypt Cairo \|France Paris \| Greece Athens \| Italy Rome\| Jordan Amman \| Secretary of State \|United Kingdom London

ACCORDING TO LOCAL RADIO, ELIAS SARKIS MET WITH FRANGIE AT ZOUK AT 1000 LOCAL TIME AND ASSUMED OFFICE AS PRESIDENT OF LEBANON (“PASSATION DES POUVOIRS”). SAME SOURCE STATES SARKIS AND FRANGIE THEN PROCEDED TO CHTAURA WHERE SARKIS TOOK OATH OF OFFICE AT 1315, SEP 23, BEFORE APPROXIMATELY 65 MEMBERS OF LEBANESE PARLIAMENT. ALTHOUGH A NUMBER OF DEPUTIES DID NOT ATTEND THE SWEARING-IN, THEIR PRIMARY OBJECTION, AS EXPRESSED IN NEWSPAPERS SEP 23, IS NOT TO SARKIS, BUT TO FACT THAT CEREMONY TOOK PLACE AT CHTAURA, WHICH THEY CONSIDER TO BE UNDER SYRIAN OCCUPATION. THERE ARE REPORTS FROM CHRISTIAN-RIGHTIST RADIO LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 02 BEIRUT 07625 231131Z THAT SOME DEPUTIES FROM WEST BEIRUT SEEKING TO ATTEND THE CEREMONY IN CHTAURA WERE HELD UP BY ROADBLOCKS BETWEEN ALEY AND BHAMDAIN, IN PALESTINIAN/LEFTIST CONTROLLED TERRITORY.

LANE

LIMITED OFFICIAL USE

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Lebanese rebel leader, Saeb Salem. Paul Schutzer July 1958

Prime Minister Saeb Salem, July 1958 (Paul Schutzer / LIFE Magazine)

Today, the post is about four meetings with former Prime Minister Saeb Salam in April, May, July, and August 1976.

TALK WITH SAEB SALAM ON SYRIAN POLICY
Date: 1976 April 6, 15:14 (Tuesday)	Canonical ID: 1976BEIRUT03010_b
Original Classification: SECRET	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Department of State \| Secretary of State \|Syria Damascus

SUMMARY: ACCORDING TO SALAM, ASAD HAS NOT CHANGED HIS POLICY OF POOPOSITION TO EDDE PRESIDENCY AND CONTINUES HIS EFFORT TO SUBVERT AND CRUSH JUMBLATT. THIS IS BOUND TO LEAD TO CON- TINUED SPOILING ACTION BY JUMBLATT, WHOM PALESTINIANS CANNOT AFFORD TO DISASSOCIATE THEMSELVES FROM PERMANENTLY. END SUMMARY.

1. I SENT LAMBRAKIS TO TALK TO SAEB SALAM TODAY, IN VIEW OF SALAM’S TRIP TO DAMASCUS A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO WHERE HE SAW ASAD. SALAM MADE NO BONES OF FACT HE HAD PRESSED ASAD TO DROP HIS VETO ON EDDE AS PRESIDENT. HE HAD EXPLAINEED EDDE IS WIDELY CONSIDERED INDEPENDENT, HONEST, AND BY FAR STRONGEST AND BEST OF THE MARONITE CANDIDATES. EDDE WAS PREPARED TO COOPERATE WITH SYRIANS, BUT HE WOULD NOT ACT AS A LACKEY AND WOULD MAINTAIN HIS DIGNITY. ASAD RAISED OLD OBJECTION THAT EDDE HAD ATTACKED HIM IN PARIS PRESS CONFERENCE FEW MONTHS AGO. SALAM ARGUED THAT STORY WAS HEAD- LINED AS AN ACCUSATION OF SYRIAN COMPLICITY WITH ISRAEL, BUT TEXT OF EDDE’S REMARKS DID NOT CONTAIN ISRAELI REFERENCE. ASAD ALSO RAISED EDDE’S REFUSAL TO COOPERATE WITH ZOUHAIR MOHSEN OF SAIQA. SALAM REPLIED THIS WAS TO EDDE’S CREDIT. MOHSEN WAS A VERY POOR REPRE- SENTATIVE OF SYRIAN INTERESTS IN LEBANON AND ASAD SHOULD KNOW IT. IF PRIMIN KARAME DOES NOT TELL ASAD THIS TRUTH HE, SALAM, WILL. MOHSEN AND HIS SAIQA ARE KNOWN IN MOSLEM COMMUNITY AS “ALI BABA AND THE FORTY THIEVES”. HIS ACTIVITIES HAVE ALIENATED

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MOSLEM COMMUNITY FROM SYRIA. SALAM SUMMED UP THAT ASAD HAD NOT CHANGED HIS OPINION ON EDDE, BUT SEEMED AT LEAST TO HAVE WAVERED SOME.

2. SALAM TOLD ASAD THAT SYRIANS ARE VERY BADLY INFORMED ON REALITIES OF LEBANON. (THERE ARE AT LEAST SIX POINTS IN SYRIAN ESTABLISHMENT OT WHICH INFORMATION ON LEBANON FILTERS IN AND WHICH ARE INVOLVED IN LEBANESE AFFAIRS, SUCH AS ARMY INTELLI- GENCE, BAATH PARTY, ETC.) SYRIANS HAVE HANDLED THEIR INTER- VENTION VERY CLUMSILY.

3. A LEADING EXAMPLE OF THIS CLUMSINESS IS WAY SYRIANS ARE DEALING WITH JUMBLATT. ASAD INSISTED THAT HE COULD CRUSH JUM- BLATT AND SALAM INSISTED BACK THAT HE COULD NOT. HE MUST TAME HIM SINCE HE CANNOT DESTROY HIM. INSTEAD, ASAD REVEALED VARIOUS SYRIAN MANEUVERS WITH OTHER MEMBERS OF DRUZE COM- MUNITY WHOM HE NAMED TO SALAM. (SALAM HERE DROPPED A COUPLE OF FAIRLY UNKNOWN NAMES.) ASAD WAS UNDER THE IMPRESSION THAT HE COULD THROUGH THESE PEOPLE SUBVERT JUMBLATT’S HOLD ON THE DRUZE. ASAD THOUGHT HITTING THE DRUZE HARD WOULD MAKE THEM DROP THEIR ALLEGIANCE TO JUMBLATT BUT SALAM IS SURE THAT WILL ONLY INTENSIFY THEIR ALLEGIANCE TO HIM. MEANWHILE, JUMBLATT CONTINUES TO PLAY WITH LEBANESE LEFT WING AND PALEST- INIANS IN ORDER TO PROTECT HIMSELF FROM THE SYRIANS.

4. JUMBLATT REALIZES, ACCORDING TO SALAM, THAT COMMMUNISTS HAVE MADE GREAT GAINS IN THIS COUNTRY. THEY HAVE ATTAINED CHAOS WHICH THEY ALONE WANT, USING OTHERS. SALAM ATTACKED ASAD WITH THIS. HE ACCUSED ASAD OF UNWITTINGLY BUILDING UP THE IMPORTANCE OF THESE COMMUNISTS WHEN HE SENT SYRIAN PLANES TO LEBANON AND SHUTTLED SO-CALLED “PROGRESSIVE PARTY LEADERS” BACK AND FORTH TO DAMASCUS. THESE “PROGRESSSVIVE PARTIES” BREAK DOWN BASICALLY TO JUST TWO: HAWI, LEADER OF THE COMMUNISTS, AND MOHSEN BRAHIM OF THE COMMUNIST ACTION GROUP. THEY HANG AROUND JUMBLATT AND KEEP HIM SAYING AND DOING THINGS THAT THEY WANT.

5. SALAM MENTIONED POSSIBILITY THAT ASAD IS WORRIED ABOUT HIS OWN INTERNAL SECURITY. HE HAD NOTHING DEFINITE IN THIS DIRECTION BUT KEPT GETTING REPORTS OF UPRISINGS AND DISSATISFACTION. FOR EXAMPLE, IT WAS RUMORED THAT ASAD HAD HAD TWO MEETINGS WITH

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SALAH EL-JDIDE, HIS OLD OPPONENT WHO WAS IN PRISON.

6. AS TO EDDE’S OPPONENT SARKIS, SALAM ALLEGED HE HAD VERY SHADY CONNECTIONS. ONE WAS KHALID KHUDR AGHA, A MAN WHO HAD KILLED HIS OWN FATHER-IN-LAW IN ORDER TO INHERIT A FORTUNE, SERVED PRISON TIME FOR THAT CRIME, BOUGHT HIS RELEASE AND WAS PROBABLY THE AGENT FOR FIVE OR SIX FOREIGN POWERS AND YET WAS ONE OF THE PRINCIPAL BACKERS OF SARKIS. OTHER BACKERS WERE PEOPLE SUCH AS AHED BAROODY, SALIM EL-KHOURY AND ARMENIAN DEPUTY SORAN KHANAMORIAN. HE COULD NOT ACCUSE SARKIS PERSON- ALLY OF WRONG-DOING, BUT SARKIS RAN AROUND IN A VERY SUSPECT CROWD.

7. FINALLY, SALAM SAID HE WAS GETTING REPORTS FROM PEOPLE CLOSE TO CHAMOUN, ONE OF WHOM HE TELEPHONED IN LAMBRAKIS’S PRESENCE, THAT CHAMOUN WAS BEING PUSHED FORMALLY TO ANNOUNCE HIS OWN CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT. AFTER THE CONVERSATION, HE SAID THIS WAS POSTPONED, TEMPORARILY AT LEAST. SALAM ALSO CLAIMED THAT CHAMOUN WAS NOT BACKING SARKIS FOR PRESIDENT AS WERE PRANGIE AND GEMAYEL. CHAMOUN MIGHT IN FACT BACK EDDE.

8. COMMENT: MOST SERIOUS EXTRACT OF THIS DISCUSSION IS CONTINUED SYRIAN EFFORT TO CRUSH AND/OR SUBVERT JUMBLATT. SINCE JUMBLATT IS AWARE OF IT, IT GUARANTEES JUMBLATT’S DEFENSIVE REACTION AND JUMBLATT IS PAST MASTER IN SPOILING GAMES. BY SAME TOKEN, PALESTINIANS CANNOT AFFORT TO BREAK WITH JUMBLATT AND THUS LET SYRIANS DIVIDE AND CONQUER THEM SEPARATELY. END COMMENT.

BROWN

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SAEB SALAM
Date: 1976 May 3, 13:27 (Monday)	Canonical ID: 1976BEIRUT03930_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Department of State \| Secretary of State

1. HAD LONG TALK WITH EX PRIME MINISTER SALAM LAST NIGHT. HE MADE STRONG APPEAL FOR OPEN U.S. SUPPORT OF EDDE, WHICH I FINESSED.

2. I STRESSED THERE IS NO REPEAT NO U.S. CANDIDATE AND IT UNTRUE U.S. AND SYRIA HAVE AGREED TO PUSH SARKIS. LATTER STORY IS BING PEDDLED ABOUT TOWN AND SEEMINGLY TAKEN SERIOUSLY BY JUMBLATTISTS, PALESTINIANS AND PEOPLE LIKE SALAM WHO ARE CLOSE TO THEM.

3. I ALSO TOLD SALAM THAT CONTINUED VIOLENCE PUT INTO DANGER NOT ONLY ELECTION BUT VERY FABRIC OF LEBANON. WESTERN WORLD IS EXTREMELY CONCERNED AT THIS MOMENT, AS I COULD ASSURE HIM FROM MY TALKS IN WASHINGTON. BUT IF ALL PARTIES CONCERNED IN LEBANON PREFER FIGHTING TO NEGOTIATION AND COUNTRY SLOWLY FALLS INTO RUIN, IT COULD BE JUST POSSIBLE THAT MAJOR POWERSCOULD TURN AWAY. THIS WOULD BE A TRAGIC POSSIBILITY; ONE THAT EVERY LEBANESE LEADER SHOULDSEEK TO AVOID. ALL THIS, I SAID, IS A PERSONAL OBSERVATION, BUT ONE FOR HIM TO CONSIDER SERIOUSLY.

4. SALAM SAID HE HAD URGED ARAFAT TO SEND DELEGATION

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SOONEST TO DAMASCUS TO DISCUSS ELECTIONS AND SECURITY. HE HIMSELF WOULD DO WHAT HE COULD DO TO CUT DOWN FIGHTING.

5. ALL ABOVE CONDUCTED IN CORNER OF HIS LIVING ROOM, AWAY FROM WINDOWS, AS THERE WAS SHOOTING IN THE NEXT STREET.

BROWN

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MEETING WITH SAEB SALAM
Date: 1976 July 2, 14:16 (Friday)	Canonical ID: 1976BEIRUT05792_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Department of State \| Egypt Cairo \|France Paris \| Israel Tel Aviv \| Jordan Amman \| Kuwait Kuwait City \| Saudi Arabia Jeddah \| Secretary of State \| Syria Damascus \| United Kingdom London

1. SUMMARY: SAEB SALAM’S EXPRESSION OF SORROW RE MURDER OF MELOY AND WARING GAVE ME OPENING TO URGE THAT HE USE HIS INFLUENCE TO SEE THAT MURDERS ARE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE. SALAM PLACED MUCH OF BLAME FOR CURRENT LEBANESE SITUATION ON SYRIANS, WHO HE CLAIMED HAD ALIENAT ED ALL LEBANESE MOSLEMS. HE ACCUSED SYRIA AND U.S. OF MANIPULATING SARKIS ELECTION AS PRESIDENT AND CONTENDED THAT SARKIS (IN CONTRAST TO RAYMOND EDDE) HAS NO POLITICAL FOLLOWING. IN ADDITION, HE CLAIMED SARKIS IS SURROUNDED BY CORRUPT INDIVIDUALS. NEVERTHELESS, SINCE HE HAS BEEN PICKED, ALL LEBANESE SHOULD LINE UP BEHIND HIM.

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SALAM WELCOMED CONCEPT OF ROUNDTABLE CONFERENCE, BUT SAID CEASEFIRE MUST COME FIRST. EGYPT’S STAR IN ARAB WORLD, HE BELIEVED, HAS NOW RISEN AT SYRIA’S EXPENSE. END SUMMARY.

2. IN PROCEEDING TO MY MEETING JULY 1 WITH SAEB SALAM, FORMER PRIME MINISTER, THERE WAS MUCH MORE NORMAL ACTIVITY ALONG THE ROUTE THAN THE DAY I CALLED ON PRIME MINISTER KARAME (JUNE 29). IN THE LATTER INSTANCE THE ROADS WE PASSED THROUGH WERE ALMOST DESERTED–THE BATTLES OF TELL ZAATAR AND JISR AL-BASHA WERE AT THEIR HEIGHT. YESTERDAY, PEOPLE WERE WALKING THE SIDEWALKS, AND MAKESHIFT SHOPS LINED THE SEASIDE CORNICHE. 3. MY MEETING WITH SAEB SALAM JULY 1, WHICH LASTED TWO HOURS (HALF HOUR LONGER THAN THE MEETING WITH KARAME), BEGAN WITH HIS EXPRESSING HIS SORROW ON DEATH OF AMBASSADOR MELOY AND BOB WARING. HE ASKED IF WE KNEW WHO HAD COMMITTED THE MURDERS. I REPLIED IN THE NEGATIVE AND SAID IT WOULD BE USEFUL IF HE COULD HELP US TO GET MORE INFORMATION. HE AGREED IMMEDIATELY TO RAISE THE QUESTION WITH THE PEOPLE CARRYING OUT THE INVESTIGATION (I.E. PALESTINIANS). I ADDED THAT WE WOULD EXPECT IN SUCH A CASE FOR THE QRIMINALS TO BE TRIED AND PENALTY OF DEATH IMPOSED. HE SAID MOST IMPORTANT THING IS TO FIND OUT WHY THEY DID IT AND WHO ORDERED THE MEN TO DO IT. HE ADDED THAT HE THOUGHT PALESTINIANS CARRYING OUT THE INVESTIGATION HAD NOT YET FOUND THE PEOPLE WHO ACTUALLY DID THE KILLING.

3. I EXPLAINED TO SALAM THE FRAME OF REFERENCE FOR MY PRESENCE IN LEBANON AND STRESSED THAT I HAD NO ANSWER TO LEBANON’S PROBLEMS. I WAS, HOWEVER, PREPARED TO BE HELPFUL IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THE U.S. COULD USEFULLY DO. I INTENDED TO KEEP A RELATIVELY LOW PROFILE. AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, I WANTED TO BE IN TOUCH WITH THE CHRISTIANS ON THE OTHER SIDE. SALAM AGREED THAT I SHOULD DO SO WHENEVER I COULD.

4. I STRESSED THAT THE U.S. VIGOROUSLY OPPOSES PARTITION OF LEBANON, DESPITE RUMORS TO CONTRARY CIRCULATING IN MOSLEM QUARTERS. ALSO, U.S. DOES NOT CONDONE MILITARY INTERVENTION IN LEBANON, DESPITE CONTRARY REPORTS. WHEN SALAM INDICATED THAT THERE SEEMED TO BE SOME TRUTH TO POPULAR BELIEF OF EXISTENCE OF A CONSPIRACY BETWEEN SYRIA, U.S., ISRAEL AND L C EN CHRISTIANS,

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 BEIRUT 05792 030954Z

I RESPONDED THAT THIS IS UNTRUE. FURTHERMORE, U.S. SUPPORTS NO FACTIO N IN LEBANON AND WANTS ONLY TO SEE PEACE AND STABILITY RESTORED TO AN INDEPENDENT LEBANON IN FRAMEWORK OF UNITY AND COHESION.

5. SALAM SAID HE WAS PREPARED TO ACCEPT FACT THAT U.S. DOES NOT FAVOR PARTITION OF LEBANON BUT, FRANKLY, HE COULD NOT HELP BUT FEEL THAT SYRIA WOULD NOT HAVE ACTED AS IT DID WITHOUT U.S. ENDORSEMENT PLUS CLOSE COORDINATION WITH ISRAEL. THERE IS BOUND TO BE SUSPICION OF U.S. MOTIVES AND ACTIONS IN VIEW OF LONG-ESTABLISHED AND STRONG U.S. SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL. THIS IS WHY, HE CONTINUED, SOVIET AMBASSADOR TODAY IN LEBANON IS FETED EVEN THOUGH LEBANESE DO NOT LIKE COMMUNITOU HE ALLUDED TO “INCAPABILITY” OF USG TO INTRODUCE TROOPS INTO LEBANON, AND SAID THIS IS GOOD THING. I AGREED USG WOULD NOT MILITARILY INTERVENE IN LEBANON, BUT STATED THAT REASON FOR THIS IS THAT SUCH A MOVE WOULD HURT U.S. INTERESTS ALL OVER ARAB WORLD.

6. SALAM WAS HIGHLY CRITICAL OF THE SYRIANS. HE DEPLORED THEIR BEHAVIOR IN LEBANON AND BLAMED THEM IN LARGE MEASURE FOR PRESENT STATE OF AFFAIRS. HE SAID THE SYRIANS BEAR A GREAT DEAL OF RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE EROSION OF SITUATION IN LEBANON BECAUSE THEY HAD FIRST TRIED TO USE SAIQA AS THEIR INSTRUMENT IN LEBANON. THIS’ HAD ANTAGONIZED LEBANESE, PARTICULARLY SINCE SAIQA MISBEHAVED, LOOTING ALMOST EVERYTHING IN SIGHT. SYRIANS HAD THOUGHT NAIVELY THAT SOMEHOW SAIQA COULD PRESERVE SYRIA’S INTERESTS IN LEBANON, BUT SAIQA WAS SOUNDLY DEFEATED. NOW THE SYRIANS HAD MADE EVERY MOSLEM AN ENEMY AND THEY SHOULD LEAVE LEBANON. SALAM SAID U.S. MUST BE HAPPY TO SEE THE ARABS IN DISARRAY BECAUSE THIS WEAKENS THE ARABS. I RESPONDED THAT THIS IS ALSO UNTRUE AND, IF IT WOULD BE HELPFUL, I WOULD BE SAYING AS MUCH TO THE PRESS. SALAM SAID THAT ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS. AMONG OTHER THINGS, I OBSERVED, ARAB DISARRAY IMPEDED ARAB-ISRAELI PEACE NEGOTIATIONS, TO WHICH WE ATTACH THE GREATEST IMPORTANCE.

7. SALAM NOTED THAT THE CONSPIRACY THEORY HAD BEEN PROPOUNDED PUBLICLY BY RAYMOND EDDE FOR THE PAST YEAR AND A HALF. HE ACCUSED US OF HAVING THEREFORE BEEN ANTI-EDDE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. LAMBRAKIS, WHO WAS ALSO PRESENT, AND I DENIED U.S. HAD TAKEN ANY POSITION IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. I SAID THAT WE HAD NO OBJECTI ON TO RAYMOND EDDE, EVENTHOUGH HE IS PRONE TO MAKE IRRESPONSIBLE

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 BEIRUT 05792 030954Z

AND INACCURATE ALLEGATIONS. SALAM INSISTED THAT MOST LEBANESE BELIEVED THAT U.S. AS WELL AS SYRIANS HAD BACKED SARKIS. OTHERWISE, EDDE WOULD HAVE BEEN ELECTED. HE WAS UNABLE TO EXPLAIN HOW THIS COULD BE THE CASE IF AT THE SAME TIME LEBANESE HAD LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN USG POLICY.

8. IF EDDE HAD BECOME PRESIDENT, SALAM CONTINUED, HE WOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DRAW 90 PER CENT OF MARONITE SUPPORT AWAY FROM TRADITIONAL EXTREMISTS SUCH AS GEMAYEL, CHAMOUN AND FRANGIE. SARKIS, ON OTHER HAND, HAS NO POLITICAL FOLLOWING. HE SAID EDDE ACTUALLY POSSESSED A MAJORITY OF THE VOTES, AND PROBABLY WOULD HAVE BEEN ELECTED PRESIDENT IN MARCH WHEN PARLIAMENT PRESENTED FRANGIE WITH A PETITION FOR HIS RESIGNATWON SIGNED BY 66 DEPUTIES. SALAM PROFESSED TO KNOW FOR A FACT THAT FRANGIE WAS PREPARED TO RESIGN THAT MORNING, BUT CHANGED HIS MIND AFTER HE GOT A TELEPHONE CALL FROM PRESIDENT ASSAD IN DAMASCUS. THIS, HE STATED, WAS ANOTHER INSTANCE OF SYRIAN RESPONSIBILITY FOR LEBANON’S PROBLEMS. SALAM WENT ON TO SAY THAT HE IS CONVINCED THAT SYRIA HAS DESIGNS ON THE BEKAA. HE ALLEGED THAT SYRIA IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF INTEGRATING THE SCHOOL SYSTEM THERE INTO THE SYRIAN SCHOOL SYSTEM.

9. SALAM REITERATED HIS VIEW THAT SARKIS WAS ELECTED BY SYRIAN BACKING. BEISDES NOT HAVING POLITICAL SUPPORT AMONG THE MARONITES, SARKIS HAS SURROUNDED HIMSELF WITH CHEHABISTS AND A GROUP OF CORRUPT PEOPLE, MANY OF WHOM HAVE BEEN AROUND FRANGIE (SUCH AS SHEIKH BUTROS KHOURY). NEVERTHELESS, NOW THAT HE IS PRESIDENT, CONTINUED SALAM, THERE IS NO CHOICE BUT TO LINE UP BEHIND SARKIS AND TRY TO HELP HIM.

10. SALAM SAID IT WAS A GREAT MISTAKE TO REFER TO CHRISTIAN AND MOSLEM FACTIONS, RESPECTIVELY, AS “RIGHTISTS” AND “LEFTISTS.” MAJORITY OF MOSLEMS ARE NOT TO THE LEFT POLITICALLY. LEBANESE DO NOT LIKE OR WANT COMMUNISM.

11. WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING EXISTENCE OF A PALESTINIAN PROBLEM IN LEBANON, AS WELL AS CONFESSIONAL CONFLICT, SALAM REVERTED TO THEME THAT NEFARIOUS OUTSIDE INFLUENCES, CHIEFLY THE SYRIANS, WERE PRIMARIL Y RESPONSIBLE FOR STIRRING THINGS UP. HE NOTED THAT THE PROPOSAL TO HOLD A ROUNDTABLE CONFERENCE HAD BEEN ONE OF HIS EARLIEST IDEAS WHEN SOME OONTHS AGO HE HAD ACTIVATED THE FORMATION OF THE DIALOGUE

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 05 BEIRUT 05792 030954Z

COMMITTEE. HOWEVER, DIALOGUE COMMITTEE, WHICH SHOULD HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO FEW KEY INDIVIDUALS, HAD BEEN CONSTITUTED WITH TOO MANY REPRESENTATIVES FROM JUMBLATT’S LEFTIST PARTIES, FOR EXAMPLE, AND HAD NEVER GOTTEN GOING. BY THE SAME TOKEN, HE WONDERED IF A ROUNDTABLE CONFERENCE WERE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME WHILE FIGHTING CONTINUED. A CEASEFIRE OUGHT TO BE THE FIRST STEP.

12. SALAM NOTED THAT EGYPT HAS NOW ONCE AGAIN BECOME POPULAR IN ARAB WORLD AT SYRIA’S EXPENSE. ARABS ARE NOW SAYING THAT AT LEAST SADAT HAS BEEN DIRECT AND ABOVEBOARD IN AGREEMENTS HE NEGOTIATED WITH ISRAEL RE SINAI. ASSAD, ON OTHER HAND, IS CONSIDERED UNDERHANDED AND DEVIOUS. EGYPT HAS BENEFITED BY BECOMING CH TWVON#OF PALESTINIANS.

13. SAEB SALAM’S REMARKS ON TOPICS OF MORE CURRENT INTEREST WERE REPORTED IN BEIRUT 5755.

14. COMMENT: SAEB SALAM REMAINS AN INTERESTING AND CHARMING PERSON TO TALK TO. THOUGH SEPTUAGENARIAN AND VOLUBLE, HE KEEPS UP WITH THE TIMES REASONABLY WELL. MANY OF HIS INTERPRETATIONS OF EVENTS FIT INTO A GENERAL PATTERN WHICH IS SHARED BY MARONITE LEADERS SUCH AS RAYMOND EDDE AND RIVAL MOSLEM TRAIDITONALISTS SUCH AS KARAME. HE CONSIDERS JUMBLATT A CONSERVATIVE LIKE HIMSELF, THOUGH ONE WHO IS PLAYING A DANGEROUS GAME WITH THE LEFT. HE SEEMS TO HAVE THE SAME FAITH KARAME EXPRESSED TO ME A FEW DAYS AGO THAT THE LEBANESE CAN SETTLE THEIR DIFFERENCES REASONABLY WELL IF ONLY OUTSIDERS–PARTICULARLY THE SYRIANS–WILL PERMIT THEM TO DO SO. ALTHOUGH NOT ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT IN A TIME OF ARMED WARFARE, HE REMAINS AN INFLUENTIAL POLITICIAN BEHIND THE SCENES AT LEAST UNTIL SUCH TIME AS THE YOUNGER GENERATION PRODUCES POLITICIANS OF NOTE RATHER THAN JUST FIGHTERS.

SEELYE

NOTE BY OC/T: AS RECEIVED.

CONFIDENTIAL

<< END OF DOCUMENT >>

MEETING WITH SAEB SALAM (AUG 18)
Date: 1976 August 19, 17:19 (Thursday)	Canonical ID: 1976STATE206310_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Department of State	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Cyprus Nicosia

1. SUMMARY: DURING MEETING WITH SAEB SALAM AUG 18, HE CRITICIZED CHAMOUN AND FRANGIE, DESCRIBED HIS ATTEMPTS TO BEGIN A SUNNI-CHRISTIAN DIALOGUE WITH PIERRE GEMAYEL, ATTACKED SYRIA’S ROLE IN LEBANON, AND URGED USG TO PUT PRESSURE ON CHRISTIANS TO BRING THEM TO NEGOTIATING TABLE. END SUMMARY.

2. CHARGE, ACCOMPANIED BY EMBOFF LANE, CALLED ON SAEB SALAM AT HIS HOME IN WEST BEIRUT AUG 18. SALAM SAID THAT EARLIER HE HAD HOPED LEBANESE SITUATION COULD BE PATCHED UP, BUT NOW “EVERYTHING HAS BEEN DESTROYED AND WE MUST REBUILD.” PARTITION IS IN BEING AND MOST IMMEDIATE PROBLEM IS TO REESTABLISH INTEGRATED STATE THROUGH NEGOTIATIONS. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 STATE 206310

3. PERSONALITIES. SALAM RAN THROUGH HIS POLITICAL OPPONENTS, GIVING THUMBNAIL SKETCH OF EACH: CHAMOUN HE DESCRIBED AS CLEVER, MEAN AND VENAL, USING WAR TO ENRICH HIMSELF; FRANGIE AS A “CRIMINAL,” COMPLETELY UNTRUSSTWORTHY AND DOMINATED BY CHAMOUN; JUNBLATT AS “THE BIGGEST FEUDALIST IN LEBANON,” PRIMARILY A JUNBLATTI, INTERESTED IN USING SITUATION (AND IRAQI AND LIBYAN MONEY) TO BUILD HIS OWN POSITION. HE STILL FEARED FRANGIE MIGHT NAME CHAMOUN PRIME MINISTER AND REFUSE TO CALL SPECIAL SESSION OF CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES, THUS PREVENTING SARKIS FROM TAKING OATH AS PRESIDENT AND ASSUMING OFFICE. PIERRE GEMAYEL, HE SAID, IS UNLIKE THE OTHERS; HE AT LEAST HAS A REAL CAUSE–DEVELOPMENT OF THE MARONITE CONSCEOUSNESS AND CONTAINMENT OF PALESTINIANS.

3. SALAM CALL ON GGEMAYEL. SALAM THEN DESCRIBED HIS VISIT TO EAST BEIRUT LAST WEEK TO CALL ON PIERRE GEMAYEL. HE SAID HE HAD RECEIVED SEVERAL WARNINGS NOT TO GO (PLANS FOR THIS VISIT HAD BEEN IN PRESS), BUT DECIDED TO GO ANYWAY. MUCH TO HIS SURPRISE, HE WAS ACCLAIMED AS HERO ON BOTH SIDES OF LINE, WHICH PROVED THAT ORDINARY LEBANESE OF ALL RELIGIONS, THOSE NOT CARRYING GUNS, ARE TIRED OF WAR AND READY FOR PEACE. SALAAM TOLD GEMAYEL THAT WAR HAD NOT HELPED CHRISTIANS ACHIEVE THEIR GOALS, AND THAT NEGOTIATIONS MUST BEGIN. GEMAYEL SAID HE DID NOT FAVOR PARTITION AND WAS READY TO TALK. SALAM SAID HE IS KEEPING IN REGULAR TOUCH WITH GEMAYEL IN ORDER KEEP DIALOGUE ALIVE. HE FELT THAT THEY HAVE A COMMON UNDERSTANDING ON SOME BASIC ISSUES, BUT MUST CONTINUE LOOK FOR SOLUTIONS. (HE DOES NOT EXPECT GEMAYEL TO RETURN HIS VISIT.)

4. NEGOTIATIONS. SALAM SAID HE IS WORKING TO BRING TOGETHER PHALANGE, PLO AND SYRIANS. THESE ARE KEY ELEMENTS IN PRESENT SITUATION, AND IF PHALANGE AND PLO COULD COME TO AGREEMENT WHICH HAD SYRIAN BLESSING, A BEGINNING CAN BE MADE TOWARD A SETTLEMENT. HE REFUSED TO SPECULATE ON WHAT FORM NEW LEBANON

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 STATE 206310

MIGHT TAKE, BUT SAID THAT TOO MUCH HAD HAPPENED TO GO BACK TO LEBANON OF FIVE YEARS AGO. A CEASE FIRE OR ARMISTICE IS VITAL, SINCE THIS WOULD GIVE MODERATE ELEMENTS IN BOTH CAMPS CHANCE TO DOMINATE THE EXTREMISTS. WHEN THERE IS FIGHTING, THE EXTREMISTS DOMINATE, AS IN CASE OF TELL ZAATAR WHEN PHALANGE WAS WILLING TO HONOR A TRUCE BUT CHAMOUNISTS FORCED THE BATTLE. HE HAD URGED AL REP KHOLI TO ORGANIZE AN AL FORCE THAT WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP COMBATANTS APART. IMPORTANT THING WAS TO GET TALKS STARTED SO THAT SEARCH FOR NEW FORMULA COULD BEGIN.

5. SYRIA. AS IN HIS DISCUSSION WITH AMB SEELYE (REF A), SALAM WAS VERY CRITICAL OF WAY SYRIA HAS PLAYED ITS HAND IN LEBANESE GAME. HE COULD UNDERSTAND THAT SYRIA WANTED TO CONTROL EVENTS IN LEBANON, AND IF THEY HAD ACTED SUBTLY THEY MIGHT HAVE BEEN ACCOMMODATED; HOWEVER, ASSAD HAD BEEN VERY CLUMSY AND DISPLAYED HIS IGNORANCE OF LEBANESE POLITICS. ALL LEBANESE HAD BEEN HORRIFIED BY EXCESSES OF THE SAIQA, AND ASSAD HAD FURTHER ALIENATED THEM BY SENDING ZUHAIR MUHSIN TO CHTURA AS HIS SPOKESMAN.

6. THE U.S. ROLE. SALAM WAS LESS CRITICAL OF U.S. THAN IN HIS TALK WITH AMB SEELYE. HE REITERATED WELL-KNOWN LITANY THAT USG CONSTANTLY ACTED AGAINST ITS OWN INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST BY SUPPORTING ISRAEL, BUT MADE NO REFERENCE TO U.S. PARTICIPATION IN A “CONSPIRACY” AGAINST LEBANON (PARA 4.1REF A) EXCEPT TO SAY THAT HE DID NOT BELIEVE IT. HE SAID MOST USEFUL STEP USG COULD TAKE NOW WOULD BE TO PUT PRESSURE ON CHRISTIANS, AND SYRIANS IF WE COULD, TO COME TO CONFERENCE TABLE WITH MINIMUM OF CONDITIONS. CHARGE REPLIED THAT, AS SALAM KNEW FROM HIS TALK WITH AMB SEELYE, WE HAD BEEN TRYING TO FIND WAY TO MAKE DIRECT CONTACT WITH CHRISTIAN LEADERS AND ARE STILL INTERESTED IN DISCUSSING SITUATION WITH THEM.

7. COMMENT: AS AMB SEELYE NOTED, SAEB SALAM IS CHARMING, WELL INFORMED AND PRAGMATIC. HE KNOWS

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 STATE 206310

THAT AS LONG AS WAR GOES ON HE HAS NO POWER, BECAUSE HE HAS NO TROOPS. IF AND WHEN TALKING STAGE BEGINS, HOWEVER, TRADITIONAL LEBANESE POLITICIANS LIKE SALAM, WHO HAVE NOT BEEN DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN THE FIGHTING, MAY PLAY A USEFUL ROLE IN BRINGING VARIOUS WARRING FACTIONS TO COOFERENCE TABLE AND TEMPERING SOME OF THEIR MORE EXTREME DEMANDS.

HUNT UNQUOTE

ROBINSON

CONFIDENTIAL

NNN

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Druze Leader Kamal Jumblatt (C) walking with his Army, August 1958 (Michael Rougier / LIFE Magazine)

Today, the post is about four meetings with Kamal Jumblatt in March, April, May, and July 1976.

TALK WITH KAMAL JUMBLATT
Date: 1976 March 4, 14:51 (Thursday)	Canonical ID: 1976BEIRUT02030_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Department of State \| Egypt Cairo \|France Paris \| Iran Tehran \| Israel Tel Aviv \| Jordan Amman \| Saudi Arabia Jeddah \| Secretary of State \| Syria Damascus \| United Kingdom London

1. SUMMARY: IN THE COURSE OF HOUR’S MEETING JUMBLATT CONFIRMED HIS NEGATIVISTIC ATTITUDE ON ALMOST EVERY POLICIAL ISSUE BEFORE HIM TODAY AND DEMONSTRATED, IN CASE WE HAD FORGOTTEN, HIS ABILITY TO SLIDE AROUND AN ARGUMENT RATHER THAN FOLLOW IT THROUGH RATIONALLY. MAIN POINT ON WHICH HE WAS RELATIVELY SINCERE, I THINK, WAS HIS BELIEF THAT HE IS HEADING A GENUINE REVOLT OF THE MASSES IN LEBANON WHICH MUST AND WILL INTIME PRODUCE WHAT HE TERMINED “GREATER DEMOCRACY” WHICH HE SEEMS TO VISUALIZE NO MORE ANTITHETICAL TO WESTERN CONCEPTS OF DEMOCRACY THAN THE SOCIAL REFORMING ROLE OF THE COMMUNIST PARTIES IN ITALY, FRANCE OR SPAIN, END SUMMARY.

2. JUMBLATT WAS OBVIOUSLY INTERESTED IN TALKING WITH ACTING DCM

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 BEIRUT 02030 041612Z

AND ME WHEN WE CALLED ON HIM AT 4:30 PM MARCH 3 TO THANK HIM FOR HIS ROLE IN RELEASE OF USIS OFFICERS GALLAGHER AND DYKES. HIS REMARKS ARE SUMMARIZED BELOW:

3. THE PRESIDENCY: JUMBLATT CALLED FOR FRANGIE’S EARLY RESIGNATION. WHILE GENERALLY DEPLORING DEARTH OF GOOD CANDIDATES TO REPLACE REANGIE, HE MENTIONED REYMOND EDDE AS PROBABLY THE BEST AND JEAN AZIZ AS A POSSIBILITY.

4. THE PRIME MINISTER: JUMBLATT SAID ANY LEBANESE GOVERNMENT REQUIRED AT LEAST THE TACIT SUPPORT OF HIS LEFT PROGRESSIVE FRONT TO FUNCTION. IT COULD NOT REALLY DEAL WITH BASIC ISSUES UNTIL YOUNGER MEN TOOK OVER AND THE PROGRESSIVE FRONT GOT THE PRIME MINISTERSHIP. HE SAID THERE WERE MANY YOUNG SUNNI LEADERS THAT COULD BE NAMED. WHEN PRESSED ON SPECIFICS, HE THREW OUT THE NAMES OF TABBARA B. AND Z. NSOULI.

5. REFORM: JUMBLATT TALKED AT LENGTH ABOUT NEED TO DECONFESSIONALIZE AND LAICIZE THE STATE. HE SPOKE OF ELECTION REFORM AND A NEW DEMOCRACY. FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY THE MASSES HAVE BEGUN TO RAISE THEIRCHOICE IN LEBANESE AFFAIRS. WHEN PRESSED, HE COMPARED SOCIAL REFORMING ROLE OF THE MASSES IN A DEMOCRACY TO VEHAVIOR OF COMMUNIST PARTIES IN ITALY, FRANCE AND SPAIN. (HE EASILY SIDE STEPPED OUR ARGUMENT THAT IT IS OTHER PARTIES WHICH MAINTAIN THE DEMOCRATIC FRAMEWORK IN THOSE COUNTIRES WITHIN WHICH COMMUNIST PARTIES OPERATE.) HE REITERATED HIS CALL FOR A REASSEMBLING OF DIALOGUE COMMITTEE AND IMPLIED THAT WAS THE PLACE FOR FIGHTING LEADERS ON BOTH SIDES TO DISCUSS THINGS RATHER THAN THEMESLVES BEING IN ANY NEW GOVERNMENT. (COMMENT: ONE OF HIS BETTER IDEAS).

6. JUMBLATT’S CURRENT FRICTION WITH SYRIA WAS REFLECTED IN FEARS HE EXPRESSED ON THE DIAPPEARANCE OF DEMOCRACY, WHICH HE CALLED LEGANON’S MOST PRECISOUS ASSET. HE REFERRED IRONICALLY TO THE “U.S.-SYRIAN AGREEMENT” WHICH PERMITTED SYRIA TO OPERATE IN LEBANON.

7. LEBANON ARMY: JUMBLATT SEVERAL TIMES SPOKE ABOUT THE ARMY. HE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE TO PUT IT TOGETHER ALONG LINES CURRENTLY BEING PURSUED BY GOVERNMENT BECAUSE IT IS TOO SPLIT. HE MADE CERTAIN CONTRADICTORY STAEMENTS INDICATING CONFUSED

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 BEIRUT 02030 041612Z

THINKING ON THE QUESTION AND ENDED UP PROPOSING THAT ANEW ARMY BE ORGANIZED AND BE SENT TO ISRAELI BORDER WHERE IT COULD ENGAGE IN RAIDS AND OTHER ACTIVIITES AGAINST ISRAEL TO GIVE ITS MEMBERS A SENSE OF SOLIDARITY AGAINST A COMMON ENEMY.

8. CIVIL WAR: JUMBLATT EXPRESSED SKEPTICISM THAT CASUAL- TIES FROM THE CIVIL WAR WERE NOT AS GREAT AS MANY SAID. HE QUOTED “ARMY FIGURE” OF ABOUT 6,000 KILLED AND SUGGESTED MAJORITY PROBABLY WERE NON-COMBATANTS, MOST OF THEM KILLED AFTER BEING KIDNAPPED. HE ACCUSED PHALANGE AND OTHERRIGHTISTS OF FOSTERING BLOOD LUST AMONG YOUNG RECRUITS (THEY WERE TORTURING ANIMALS AND BATHING THEIR YOUNG MEN IN TUBS OF ANIMAL BLOOD). HE WONDERED HOW ALL THESE YOUNG FIGHTERS ON ALL SIDES COULD GO BACK TO MORE PEACEFUL LIVES AND DID NOT SEEMTO BELIEVE INTERGRATION INTO THE ARMY MORE THAN A PARTIAL SOLUTION. HE ADVANCED THE THESIS THAT CIVIL WAR MIGHT CONTINUE, PETERING OUT GRADUALLY FROM, SAY 6,000 TO 1,000 TO 200 TO 50 TO 10 ETC) KILLED MUCH AS RIPPLES IN A SEA WAVE. WHILE NOT TAKING DIRECT ISSUE WITH MY COMMENT THAT 10 MONTHS OF WAR SHOULD HAVE DEMONSTRATED TO ALL SIDES THAT THEIR CAUSE COULD NOT WIN THROUGH MILITARY VICTORY, HE EXPRESSED THE OPINION THAT SUCH BLOOD LETTING SOMETIMES HAS VIRTURE OF EXTERIORIZING INTERNAL COMPLEXES IN PEOPLE SO THAT THEY FEEL BETTER AFTERWARDS. LARDING THE PRAGMATIC WITH THE MYSTICAL, JUMBLATT WENT ON AT LENGTH TO EXPLAIN THE IMPORTANCE OF “MYTH” FOR PEOPLES OF THE ORIENT (AND EVEN FOR SUCH WESTERN PEOPLE AS THE GERMANS UNDER THE NAZIS) AND THE CLOSED NATURE OF COMMUNITIES IN THE LEBANON. MORAL HE DREW WAS THAT WESTERN MATERIALISM AND PRAGMATISM WERE NOT PART- ICULARLY APPLICABLE TO THE EAST.

9. THE U.S. AND ISRAEL: JUMBLATT TERMED ISRAEL A RELIGIOUS AND RACIST STATE. HE DEPLORED U.S. POLICY AS TOTALLY PRAGMATIC (PARTICULARLY SECRETARY KISSINGER) WHOM HE SAID HE DID NOT TRUST), AND DEVOID OF THE IDEALISM OF THE EISENHOWER YEARS. HE SUGGESTED SOLUTION OF THE REGIONAL PROBLEM WOULD BE THROUGH APPLICATION OF THE 1947 UN RESOLUTION ON PARTITION OF PALESTINE. (COMMENT: JUMBLATT WAS UNSURE OF HIS DATES AND FACTS AT SEVERAL POINTS IN DISCUSSING ARAB-ISRAELI RELATIONS AND DEMONSTRAED THE SECONDARY NATURE OF THAT PROBLEM IN HIS MIND WHEN HE INSISTED THAT LEBANESE SITUATION WAS COMPLETELY SEPARABLE FROM IT AND COULD CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 BEIRUT 02030 041612Z BE SOLVED SEPARATELY).

10. COMMENT: JUMBLATT WAS FRIENDLY AND RELATIVELY MILD MANNERED THROUGHOUT. HE RESPONDED POSITIVELY TO SUGGESTIONS THAT AMBASSADOR GODLEY AND I LOOKED FORWARD TO FUTURE CONTACT WITH HIM. THERE IS NO DOUBT, NEVERTHELESS, THAT HE IS AN EXCEEDINGLY DANGEROUS POLITICAL LEADER WHO IS NOT PREPARED TO MAKE CONCESSIONS IN THE NAME OF LEBANESE UNIT OR PATRIOTISM. HIS MESSAGE TO US WAS PRETTY NEGATIVE FROM START TO FINISH. HIS DRIVING FORCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A BELIEF THAT HE CAN MASTER HISTORICAL REVOLUTIONARY FORCES WHICH ARE GOING TO TRANSFORM LEBANON SOCIALLY WITHOUT DESTROYING ITS ESSENTIAL DEMOCRACY, BUT ACTUALLY IMPROVING IT. DESPITE HIS RELATIVE BRILLIANCE IN THE LEBANESE SCENE AND IDEALISTIC PATTER,I SUSPECT CYNICS WILL POBABLY RECOGNIZE HIM AS A PRIME EXAMPLE OF THEIR OWN SPECIES.

LAMBRAKIS

CONFIDENTIAL

NNN

MEETING WITH JUMBLATT
Date: 1976 April 8, 18:15 (Thursday)	Canonical ID: 1976BEIRUT03119_b
Original Classification: SECRET	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Lebanon Beirut	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Department of State \| Secretary of State

1. SUMMARY: JUMBLATT EXTENDS CEASEFIRE TEN DAYS OR WHATEVER NEEDED TO LAUNCH NEW PRESIDENT. LIKES PRO- POSALS I GAVE HIM, WANTS TO REFLECT, AND WILL BE BACK TO ME TOMORROW THROUGH INTERMEDIARY AND UNDOUBTEDLY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL IDEAS. REMAINS SUSPICIOUS OF SYRIANS (AND SOMEWHAT OF AMERICANS) BUT GENERALLY POSITIVE. END SUMMARY.

2. MET WITH JUMBLATT ALONE FOR 90 MINUTES. AS INEVIT- ABLE WE HAD WIDE-RUNNING CONVERSATION INCLUDING DISSERTA- TION BY HIM AS TO HOW WE MISUNDERSTAND HIS PAL, MADAME GHANDI. I HOPE SOMEDAY YOU, MR. SECRETARY, WILL MATCH WITS WITH HIM.

3. I HAVE HIM A RUNDOWN ON MY CONSULTATIONS HERE, KNOWING THIS IS EGO-FEEDER FOR HIM. ON MARONITES, HE LISTENED CAREFULLY AND THEN SAID, ASIDE FROM CHAMOUN WHOM HE REGARDS AS MAD OR SENILE, HE CAN GET ALONG WITH THEM AND THAT HE ENVISAGED IN RELATIVELY NEAR FUTURE SITTING DOWN WITH GEMAYEL TO DISCUSS FUTURE.

4. ON MY RPT MY PERSONAL IDEAS, HE SAID HE HAD JUST REFUSED “ARAFAT’S SUGGESTION THAT THE TRIPARTITE COMMISSION (PALESTINIANS, SYRIANS

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AND LEBANESE ARMY) BE RECONSITUTED. HIS REFUSAL BASED ON INCREAS- INGLY STRIDENT AND ANTI-JUMBLATT TONE OF SYRIANS AND THEIR SUPPORTERS HERE WHICH HE VIEWS AS ATTEMPT TO BAIT AND THEN DES- TROY HIM. HE TOLD ‘ARAFAT TO GO AHEAD AND SECURE PARLIAMENTARY AREA WITH HELP OF LWBANESE FORCES BUT NOT TRY TO GET FORMAL AGREEMENT IN ADVANCE FROM HIM FOR THE TRIPARTITE COMMITTEE. (INCIDENTALLY HE SAID HIS FORCES ARE INSTRUCTED TO FACILITATE PARLIAMENTARY MEETING.) I TOLD HIM THAT MY PLAN ENVISAGED LEBANESE ARMY, PALESTINIANS, SYRIANS, PHALANGE AND FORCES UNDER HIS CONTROL (WHAT I CALLED “LEFTISTS” IN TALK TO MARONITES). ON REFLECTION, WE MAY HAVE SKPPED TOO LIGHTLY OVER THIS ONE. HE HAS GUNS AND SHOULD BE INCLUDED. MOST CERTAINLY, ATTEMPTS TO EXCLUDE HIM AT THE START WILL EARN HIS VETO.

5. GENERAL IDEA OF CREATION OF A MIXED FORCE FOR SECURITY PURPOSES, INCLUDING, OF COURSE, HIS (BEAR THIS IN MIND) IS OKAY. HE WANTS TO REFLECT ON IT A BIT, FEARFUL THAT IT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO PARTITION. I ARGUED THAT IS NOT THE POINT. I AM TALKING FIRST ABOUT SHORT-TERM SOLUTIONS FOR URGENT SECURITY PROBLEMS AND, SECOND, ABOUT A PLAN WHEREBY THE SHORT-TERM IS ABSORBED INTO AND THEN SUPERSEDED BY LONGER-TERM PROPOSALS. HE SAID IT IS A POSSIBLY ACCEPTABLE IDEA. HE’LL REFLECT.

6. ON THE CONSORTIUM DEALS WANTS TO REFLECT AND WILL BE BACK TO ME TOMORROW. HE AGREES THAT ARMY RETRAINING IS A FIRST PRIORITY OF NEW PRESIDENT. HE IS INTRIGUED BY THOUGHT I GAVE HIM THAT IT NOT NECESSARY TO RECREATE ARMY, NAVY, AIR FORCE, GENDARMARIE, POLICE, ETC., AND ETC., ON EXACT GROUNDS AS ON PAST BUT THAT LEBANON– PERHAPS WITH INTELLIGENT ADVICE FROM DISINTERESTED TECHNICIANS– MIGHT RETHINK THROUGH ITS WHOLE SECURITY PACKAGE. (SORRY, I’M SPRINGING A NEW IDEA ON YOU WHICH COMES AFTER TALKING TO BRI- GADIER MUSA KANNAN AND OTHER THOUGHTFUL OFFICERS WHO SAY “WHY RECREATE WHAT FRENCH TOLD US WE NEEDED?”)

7. HE MULLED OVER IDEA OF SMALL, ELITE FORCE WITH DEFINITE MISSION AND POSSIBLE USE OF CONSCRIPTION TO CREATE SORT OF “AMERICAN NAT- IONAL GUARD”–LATER IN ENGLISH. HE BELIEVES–CONTRARY TO WHAT PROFESSIONAL SOLDIERS TELL ME–THAT THE SMALL FORCE COULD BE SET UP IN A FEW MONTHS AS THERE EXISTS CORPS OF “NON-EXTREMIST” MOSLEMS AND CHRISTIAN OFFICERS ON WHOM IT COULD BE BUILT. I EXPRESSED A CERTAIN PESSIMISM ABOUT HIS TIME FRAME BUT ENCOURAGED HIM TO THINK

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THROUGH HOW A TRULY NATIONAL FORCE CAN BE CREATED. 8. AS WE DISCUSSED CONSORTIUM IT BECAME CLEAR HE HAS ONE REAL PROBLEM . THAT IS SYRIA. HE SIMPLY DOES NOT WANT TO ACCEPT MENTALLY AT THIS TIME CONTINUED AND PERHAPS LARGER SYRIAN MILITARY PRESSURE. IN FACT, HE WANTS TO GET RID OF SAIQA NOW RPT NOW HERE. (WHILE WE WERE TALK- ING, SAIQA TROOPS TRIED TO DELIVER FREE FLOUR IN IMMEDIATE AREA TO INTENSE ANNOYANCE OF JUMBLATTISTS WHO CHASED THEM AWAY.) HE CAN FORESEE SMALL CONTINGENTS OF FRIENDLY ARAB STATES IN THE TRAINING PROCESS, BUT INSISTS THAT–ON THE WHOLE–LEBANON CAN DO TASK. I URGED HIM TO THINK THIS ALL THROUGH, TO REMEMBER THAT SYRIAN EFFORT SO FAR HAD BEEN HELPFUL, AND THAT HE SHOULD NOT DISCARD COMPLETELY SYRIAN ROLE SIMPLY BECAUSE HE HAVING SORT OF PROPAGANDA BATTLE WITH PRO-SYRIAN LEBANESE BAATH AND DAMASCUS PRESS.

9. WHILE HE WELCOMES IDEA OF WESTERN HELP, HE REMAINS SUSPICIOUS OF MOTIVES AND INSISTS REBUILDING OF LEBANON IS A LEBANESE TASK. HE REPEEATTED BELIEF THAT U.S. SUPPORTING SYRIAN INITIATIVE FOR OUR OWN POLITICAL ADVANTAGE IN FUTURE LEBANON. I TOLD HIM THAT WE WERE NOT TRYING TO ESTABLISH SYRIAN HEGEMONY OVER LEBANON. WE WANT TO SEE A REUNIFIED, PEACEFUL LEBANON, PLAYING ITS NATURAL ROLE IN MEDITERRANEAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN WORLD. IT IS SIMPLY NOT IN AMER- ICAN INTEREST TO SEE DRAMATIC CHANGES TAKE PLACE WHICH COULD CREATE GREATER PROBLEMS IN FUTURE. HE AGREES THAT LEBANON’S ROLE AS I DEFINED IT IS ALSO HIS. IT SHOULD HAVE LIBERAL ECONOMY WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE WESTERN AND ARAB CAPITAL TO COME BACK. (DOUBT HE’LL TELL HIS PROGRESSIVE FRIENDS THIS BUT IT HAS BEEN A THEME OF OUR TALKS.) HE SAID WE SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT SYRIAN OCCUPATION OF LEB- ANON WOULD LEAD TO GUERRILLA WAR. I REPEATED AGAIN THAT THIS IS NOT RPT NOT OUR POLICY.

10. JUMBLATT INSISTED ON TALKING ABOUT THE POLITICAL PROCESS AND CHOICE OF PRESIDENTS. I TOLD HIM THAT ONY THING I WOULD NOT DO IS PLAY A ROLE IN SELECTING THE PRESIDENT ON THE GROUNDS THAT ANY CHOICE I MADE WOULD BE DENOUNCED AS PART OF AN AMERICAN PLOT. I SAID I WAS RESISTING TAKING SUCH A POSITION WHICH THE FAR TOO MANY LEBANESE WHO WERE PRESSING ON ME. VERY POLITELY, HE SAID HE AC- CEPTED THIS BUT NONETHELESS WANTED ME TO KNOW THAT EDDE IS HIS MAN AND HE HOPED AMERICANS COULD TELL SYRIANS THAT FOREIGNERS SHOULD NOT PROPOSE SOME CANDIDATES AND VETO OTHERS. THIS IS ONE WE

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MIGHT THINK ABOUT IF RAISED BY SYRIANS.

11. I THINK WE SHOULD HOLD OFF ON COMMUNICATING JUMBLATT’S THOUGHTS ANYWHERE UNTIL I HEAR FROM HIS PEOPLE TOMORROW. IN MEANTIME, AS HE TOLD ME, HE WANTS TO DISCUSS THEM FIRST WITH HIS OWN GROUP AND THEN WITH “PROGRESSIVES”. GOD KNOW WHAT THEY MAY LEAD TO BUT, PERPETUAL OPTIMIST THAT I AM, I THINK HE’LL BE POSITIVE. HE ENJOYED OUR PRIVATE MEETING, SAID PUBLICLY TO PRESS IT HAD BEEN MOST HELPFUL AND THAT HE LOOKED FORWARD TO FURTHER CONSULTATION. I AVOIDED COMMENT TO PRESS OTHER THAN TO SAY “ASK MR. JUMBLATT, WITH WHOM I’VE HAD VERY GOOD TALK” AND THAT I HAVE NO PLANS TO LEAVE.

12. I’VE SAID THIS BEFORE AND I’LL REPEAT IT. SYRIANS SHOULD COOL IT SOMEWHAT ON JUMBLATT. OUR AIM IS TO CONTAIN JUMBLATT. THE BEST WAY IS TO GET HIM INVOLVED AND COOPERATING. RIGHT NOW HE CAN SPOIL IT ALL. IF WE CAN SUCK HIM INTO THE PROCESS, HE WON’T AND CAN’T. IF SYRIANS RELAX A BIT ON HIM, IT WILL HELP. I KNOW THIS IS DIFFICULT. SYRIANS ARE A COMPLICATED, SENSIIVE PEOPLE AND THEY ARE OUT ON A LIMB WITH A POLICY AND INTERVENTION HERE WHICH DIDN’T WORK AS EASILY AS THEY THOUGHT. JUMBLATT, FOR EXAMPLE, THINKS ASAD IS DOOMED AS HE HAS PUT HIMSELF AND ALAWITES IN SAME POSITION IN SYRIA THAT MARONITES ARE HERE.

BROWN

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CONVERSATION WITH JUMBLATT
Date: 1976 May 5, 21:53 (Wednesday)	Canonical ID: 1976STATE109747_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Department of State	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: DAMASCUS GUATEMALA \|Guatemala Guatemala \| Syria Damascus

1. SUMMARY: IN LONG TALK WITH JUMBLATT I TOLD HIM WORLD CANNOT ACCEPT CONTINUED SHELLING AND ENDLESS FIGHTING. FUTURE OF LEBANON AT STAKE. ELECTIONS MUST TAKE PLACE. HE HAD TO ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY. I WOULD SAY SUME TO MARONITES. TIME HAD COME FOR HIM TO TALK TO MARONITES. HIS DEMANDS FOR IMMEDIATE AND TOTAL WITHDRAWAL OF SYRIANS AS PRE-CONDITION FOR ELECTIONS WERE NON-STARTERS. FINALLY, I WAS NOT RPT NOT PART OF SYRIAN-AMERICAN PLOT AIMED AT INSTALLING SARKIS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 STATE 109747 DESPITE JUMBLATT’S PUBLIC STATEMENTS TO CONTRARY. END SUMMARY

2. I HAD ANOTHER LENGTHY TALK WITH JUMBLATT AT 6:30 PM MAY 4. ATMOSPHERE WAS VERY CORDIAL DESPITE JUMBLATT’S BLASKT IN THE PRESS THAT SAME DAY ABOUT A SO-CALLED “U.S.-ARAB-ISRAELI” PLOT (WHICH HE SMILINGLY BRUSHED OFF AS A NECESSARY LOCAL POLITICAL PLOY).

3. JUMBLATT STRESSED SYRIAN INTERFERENCE. SYRIA HAD STILL MADE NO GESTURE. EVEN RACHID KARAME, HE HAD BEEN TOLD CONFCDENT ALLY, WAS ANNOYED WITH THE SYRIANS.

4. JUMBLATT CAISED THE QUESTION OF A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE. THERE WWS THE POSSIBILITY OF A THIRD CANDIDATE BUT HE FAVORED A STRONG CANDIDATE. I NOTED THAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE A STRONG PRESIDENT WITH WIDEST BACKING POSSIBLE. HE WENT ON TO SAY THAT HE HAD HAD LUNCY THAT DAY WITH RAYMOND EDDE. HIS PARTY WAS FOR EDDE IN PRINCIPLE BUO NO FINAL DECISION HAD BEEN MADE.

5. IN CONNECTION WITH THE ABOVE, JUMBLATT SAID THAT THE CHRISTIANS WERE BY NO MEANS UNITED. CHAMOUN WOULD ACCEPT ANY CANDIDATE PROVIDED HE WAS SUFFICIENTLYHPAID OFF TO DO SO. FATHER KASSIS HAD MADE AN APPROACH FOR A DIALOGUE. JUMBLATT WAS WILLING IF IT WERE KEPT SECRET. PIERRE GEMAYEL’S SON, BACHIR, HAD MADE AN APPROACH. THERE WERE EVEN DIFFERENCES WITHIN GEMAYEL’S PARTY, I.E., BETWEEN BACHIR GEMAYEL AND THE POLITBURO.

6. JUMBLATT ONCE AGAIN RAISED THE POSSIBLITY OF A ROUND TABLE TO START A DIALOGUE, HINTING THIS TIME THAT IT DID NOT NECESSARILY HAVE TO TAKE PLACE OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY.

7. ON THE QUESTION OF SECURITY, JUMBLATT CLAIMED THIS COULD BE PROVIDED WITHOUT BRINGING IN MORE FORCES THAN THOSE ALREADY HERE. WHILE OPPOSING ADDITIONAL FORCES, HE MADE CLEAR WHEN PUSYED THAT HIS DEMAND FOR IMMEDIATE DEPARTURE OF SYRIANS MEANS IN THE FORESEE- ABLE FUTURE AND NOT RPT NOT TOMORROW.

8. HE HAD IN MIND ORGANIZING AN INITIAL FORCE OF ABOUT 2500 MEN IN THE SHOUF. THE HEAD OF THE LEBAMESE ARMY COULD CHOOSE THE COMMANDING OFFICER. A COUNCIL COULD BE SET UP REPRESENTING THE VARIOUS FACTIONS. THERE WAS NO NEED TO WORRY ABOUT ANY DIFFI- CULTIES FROM “THAT LITTLE CORPORAL KHATIB” WHO COULD BE TAKEN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 STATE 109747 CARE OF. THIS FORCE COULD BE USED AS A NUCLEUS TO RESTORE ORDER IN BEIRUT ONCE IT WAS ORGANIZED AND TRAINED. THE DRUZE, HE NOTED, HAD TRADITIONALLY ACTED AS A BRIDGE BEWTEEN CHRISTIANS AND MOSLEMS.

9. ON MY PART I STRESSED THE NEED FOR STOPPING THE FIGHTING AND GETTING ON WITH THE POLITICAL PROCESS. I STATED MY VIEW THAT THERE ARE TWO SORTS OF WAR GOING ON: ONE, AT LINE DIVIDING THE PARTIES; OTHER CONSISTING OF UNAIMED ARTILLERY AND MORTAR FIRE. LATTER HAD TO BE STOPPED IMMEDIATELY. AT STAKE WAS FUTURE VIABILITY OF LEBANON WHICH MUST CONCERN HIM. I PUSHED AHEAD ON THIS. ALSO SAID FIGHTING IN PORT HAD TO STOP AS NEXT STEP. IN DISCUSSING THIS HE DID NOT DENY THAT IT HAS BEEN LEFTISTS WHO HAVE BEEN DOING THE PUSHING IN THE PORT AREA. JUMBLATT FKLLY AGREED BUT, WHEN QUETIONED, SAID HE WAS NOT SURE IF ELECTIONS COULD TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY AY SCHEDULED. I AGAIN INSISTED ON THE IMPORTANCE OF NO DELAYS, REMINDING HIM THAT I HAD DELIVERED THE SAME MESSAGE TO JOUNIEH WHEN THIS SEEMED NECESSARY.

10. JUMBLATT AGREED WITH ME ON THE NECESSITY OF STOPPING THE FIGHTING AND SAID HE WOULD WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. I AGAIN REMINDED HIM THAT TIME WAS RUNNING OUT AND THE WORLD COULD TURN ITS BACK ON LEBANON. SO FAR, HOWEVER, THE UNITED STATES REMAINED DEEPLY INTERESTED IN LEBANON’S WELFARE AS PRESIDENT FORD HAD PERSON- ALLY ASSURED ME WHEN I WAS IN WASHINGTON.

11. I LEFT THE QUESTION OF A PRESS STAEMENT TO JUMBLATT. IT TURNED OUT THAT ONE OF THE POINTS HE MADE WAS THAT THE U.S. DID NOT FAVOR ANY CANDIDATE BUT HOPED THAT THE NEW PRESIDENT WOULD BE A STRONG MAN WITH STRONG BACKING. HE ALSO CALLED FOR CESSATION OF FIGHTING.

12. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT JUMBLATT’S MORE CONSERVATIVE ADVISERS ARE GETTING SOMEWHAT FED UP WITH DELAYS. WE WERE INFORMED THAT DEPUTY PARTY CHIEF KHALAS AND DRUZE ADVISER ABOU-DIAB DECIDED NOT TO ATTEND THE MEETING. MOREOVER, KHALAF HAS DECIDED TO RO TO THE STATES MAY 8 WHETHER ELECTIONS TAKE PLACE OR NOT.

BROWN

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TALK WITH JUMBLATT JULY 1
Date: 1976 July 3, 23:25 (Saturday)	Canonical ID: 1976STATE166467_b
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
From: Department of State	Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006
To: Secretary of State \| US Delegation Secretary

SUMMARY: JUMBLATT SPOKE FOR ALMOST 2 HOURS WITH ME ON WIDE RANGE OF SUBJECTS. HE OUTLINED THE “SINS” OF THE CHRISTIANS AND THE NEED TO REALIZE HOW MUCH THEY HAD TO LOSE IN SPECIFIC TERMS FROM THEIR CURRENT ALLIANCE WITH THE SYRIANS. HE ATTACKED SYRIAN POLICY AND THOUGHT THE FIRST STEP IS THAT SYRIANS GET OUT BEFORE A ROUND TABLE DISCUSSION CAN PROCEED. HE WAS GENERALLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT CHANCES OF ENDING THE FIGHTING IN THE NEAR FUTURE (THOUGH GIVING NO SPECIFIC EVIDENCE OF THIS BEYOND THE GENERAL FEELING THAT “PEOPLE NEED A REST”), AND SAID TIME HAD COME FOR COMPROMISE. HOWEVER, ROUND TABLE DISCUSSIONS MUST BE CAREFULLY PREPARED, AND GAVE AS AN EXAMPLE TALKS HE AND THE PALESTINIANS HAVE HAD WITH BASHIR GEMAYEL, SON OF PIERRE GEMAYEL. HE OUTLINED SOME REFORMS, INCLUDING PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION AND DE-CONFESSIONALIZATION OF THE STATE, AS

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EXAMPLES OVER WHICH COMPROMISE CAN BE REACHED. THOUGH RESTED AND SPEAKING IN REASONABLE TERMS, HE WAS NOT VERY CONVINCING THAT PEACE IS AROUND THE CORNER. END SUMMARY.

1. I TOOK LAMBRADIS WITH ME TO CALL ON JUMBLATT JULY 1. HE LOOKED RESTED AFTER SOMETIME IN HIS MOUNTAIN RETREAT, WHERE HE WAS NOT VERY INVOLVED WITH CURRENT POLITICS OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HE WAS WELL-DRESSED, HAD A NEAT HAIRCUT, AND GENERALLY PRESENTED A VERY RELAXED IMAGE AS HE OFFERED US FRUIT AND DEVOURED IT HIMSELF, AS IS HIS AFTERNOON HABIT.

2. NOTING THAT HE HAD NEVER MET AMBASSADOR MELOY PERSONALLY, HE BEGAN WITH EXPRESSIONS OF PERSONAL SORROW AT THE DEATH OF ROBERT WARING. HE HAD CONSIDERED HIM AN HONEST FRIEND AND HAD NOTED THINGS HE HAD DISCUSSED WITH WARING WERE LISTENED TO IN WASHINGTON, SINCE HE HAD SEEN PLAYBACKS OF THEM A FEW DAYS LATER IN PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENTS OR PRESS REPORTS. WHEN ASKED FOR HIS CURRENT BEST ESTIMATE OF WHO THE MURDERERS WERE, JUMBLATT SAID HE THOUGHT THE MURDERS HAD BEEN ORDERED BY DR. HADDAD, WHO IS GEORGE HABASH’S DEPUTY IN THE PFLP. HE SAID HE HAD NOT BEEN IN TOUCH MORE RECENTLY WITH SPECIFICS OF THE INVESTIGATION, BUT WOULD LOOK INTO IT FOR US. I PRESSED HIM ON THIS SCORE, AND HE SEEMED COMPLETELY WILLING TO DO WHAT HE COULD. HE NOTED HIS OWN SISTER’S DEATH AND THE WOUNDING OF HIS NIECES. SUCH PERSONAL GRIEF HELPS ONE APPRECIATE THE GRIEF OF OTHERS, HE SAID.

3. I EXPLAINED MY MISSION TO THE LEBANON, AND NOTED THAT IN EARLIER CONVERSATIONS SINCE MY ARRIVAL CERTAIN SUGGESTIONS HAD COME UP ON WHICH I HAD CONSISTENTLY TRIED TO SET THE RECORD STRAIGHT. I HAVE BEEN POINTING OUT THAT THE US IS AGAINST LEBANESE PARTITION. I HAVE MADE A POINT OF MENTIONING UNITY OF LEBANON IN MY PUBLIC UTTERANCES. I ALSO HAVE TRIED TO DEBUNK LIES SUGGESTING THERE IS A SYRIAN-ISRAELI-CHRISTIAN-USG CONSPIRACY TO SUPPRESS THE PALESTINIAN AND THE LEFT IN LEBANON. I NOTED THAT THE PRESS AND RADIO NEVERTHELESS CONTINUED TO INSIST ON THIS THEME DESPITE ANYTHING THE USG OR I CAN SAY. JUMBLATT NODDED HIS UNDERSTANDING.

4. JUMBLATT ADVERTED INDIRECTLY TO US-SYRIAN COLLUSION. HE

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SAID HE BELIEVED US WHEN WE SAY WE ARE AGAINST PARTITION. HOWEVER, US USED TO BE VERY STRICT ON QUESTION OF THE INDEPENDENCE OF LEBANON. THIS CAME UP IN 1958 EVEN IN CONNECTION WITH US FACILITATING THE ELECTION OF GENERAL CHEHAB. ISRAEL HAD BEEN WELL AWARE OVER THE YEARS OF US SUPPORT FOR LEBANESE INDEPENDENCE. HOWEVER, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CURIOUS EVENTS RECENTLY IN SYRIA. ASSAD HAS “TURNED COSSACK” AGAINST THE SOVIETS. HE HAS RENEWED UNDOF MANDATE ON GOLAN HEIGHTS WITHOUT ANY FUSS. ONE CANNOT ESCAPE THE CONCLUSION THAT US PERMISSION HAS BEEN GIVEN TO SYRIANS TOH TO VERY FAR INDEED. EVERYONE BELIEVES THIS, AND JUMBLATT HAD TOLD THIS TO AMBASSADOR BROWNN WHO HE SAID OF COURSE DENIED IT. ONE CANNOT IMAGINE THE SYRIANS WOULD DARE ALLOW THEIR TROOPS TO ENTER LEBANON WITHOUT SOME KIND OF US GO-AHEAD. THIS IS A “PLOT” OF WHICH EDDE HAS BEEN TALKING FOR A YEAR AND A HALF.

6. JUMBLATT SAID HE BELIEVED SECRETARY KISSINGER HAS A METHOD WHICH JUMBALTT ADMIRES IN ITS TACTICAL EFFICACY. IT LETS PEOPLE FIGHT EACH OTHER UNTIL THEY ARE TIRED AND THEN KISSINGER STEPS IN WITH A SOLUTION. BUT US SHOULD BE CAREFUL NOT TO LOSE ITS FRIENDS IN THE LEBANON. A SOCIALIST STATE MIGHT RISE IN THE LEBANON OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 YEARS. (IN REPLY TO MY QUESTION, JUMBLATT INSISTED HE WAS SPEAKING ABOUT A SOCIALIST STATE, NOT A COMMUNIST.)

7. SOCIAL REFORM HAD BECOME NECESSARY TO COUNTER MARONITE PRIVILEGE, WHICH IS EXERCISED IN TERMS REMINISCENT OF THE MIDDLE AGES. FIVE PROPRIETORS OWN MOST OF THE BEKAA. THERE ARE UNCULTIVATED LANDS GOING TO WASTE WHILE HUNDREDS AND THOUSANDS ARE MISERABLE IN THEIR POVERTY. THE COUNTRY NEEDS TRUE DEMOCRACY. PROGRESSIVE FORCES WHICH JUMBLATT LEADS BELIEVE IN LIBERTY. THEY DO NOT BELIEVE IN COMMUNISM, NOR CLASS WARFARE, OR IN COUPS D’ETAT. HE CLAIMED ALONG THAT LINE TO HAVE PREVENTED GENERAL AHDAB FROM MARCHING AGAINST FRANGIE WHEN FRANGIE DID NOT RESIGN IN MARCH. THIS WAS NOT THE DEMOCRATIC WAY, JUMBLATT SAID. (AS WE RECALL IT, JUMBLATT’S GROUP MAY HAVE HAD A PART IN THIS, BUT IT IS FAR FROM CLEAR THAT HE ALONE PREVENTED AHDAB FROM MARCHING.)

8. THE MARONITES MUST UNDERSTAND THAT OPPOSITION TO THEM CAN

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CONTINUE FOR YEARS IF THEY DO NOT YIELD. JUMBLATT IS PREPARED TO DISCUSS THINGS OVER THE ROUND TABLE, BUT NOT TO CONTINUE ACCEPTING MARONITE MASTERY OF THE COUNTRY. MARONITES HAVE SEVERAL SPECIFIC THINGS THEY SHOULD THINK ABOUT: FIRST, IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR COMMUNISTS MIGHT GO IN LEBANON. JUMBLATT SAID HE DID NOT LIKE THE COMMUNISTS HIMSELF (AND IN FACT EXPECTS GREATER DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE SOVIET UNION BY ABOUT 1985). HOWEVER, MARONITES SHOULD FEAR COMMUNIST TREND IN LEBANON IF CONDITIONS ON WHICH THEY BREED ARE NOT CHANGED. SECOND, MARONITES SHOULD FEAR EMIGRATION OF THEIR OWN PEOPLE IF THEY MAINTAIN CURRENT SEPARATENESS BEHIND THEIR GUNS. JUMBLATT WAS TOLD 80 PERCENT OF DOCTORS HAVE ALREADY FLED THE COUNTRY. THESE STUBBORN MARONITES MAY SOME DAY FIND THEIR NUMBERS SO REDUCED THAT THEY WILL BE FACED BY A CRUSHING MAJORITY OF ISLAM. THIRD, MARONITES SHOULD FEAR SYRIA. SOME SUCH AS BASHIR GEMAYEL WISELY OPPOSED SYRIAN INTERVENTION FOR THIS REASON; OTHERS — PARTICULARLY THE MONKS AND CLERICS OF THE CATHOLIC FRONT — MAINTAIN THEIR HOPES FOR A NEW CRUSADE. SYRIANS BELIEVE THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO REPLACE MOTHER FRANCE AS PROTECTOR OF LEBANON, AND IN PARTICULAR THE MARONITES. BUT ONE DAY THERE COULD BE A CHANGE OF REGIME IN SYRIA WITH SUNNIS OVERTHROWING THE REGIME AND LIVING UP THEIR FORCES IN LEBANON WITH THE LEFT. TOP CHRISTIAN LEADERS SHOULD REALIZE THIS. (COMMENTING SPECIFICALLY ON GEMAYEL, JUMBLATT SAID HE SUFFERED FROM HALLUCINATIONS AND HAD NO INTELLECTUAL BAGGAGE. CLINICALLY HIS FATHER HAD SUFFERED FROM HALLUCINATIONS.)

9. FINALLY, CHRISTIANS SHOULD REALIZE FORTUNE THEY MADE IN THE PAST WAS BASED ON EXPLOITATION OF ARAB OIL AND SERVICES TO OTHER ARAB COUNTRIES. MARONITES HAVE LOST MUCH OF THIS MONEY (HE SPOKE OF 50,000 LEBANESE IN FRANCE, MANY OF THEM IN FINANCIAL NEED AT PRESENT). MARONITES MUST REALIZE THAT THESE ARAB STATES WILL TURN AGAINST EHEM AND ISOLATE THEM IF THEY CONTINUE TO BEHAVE AS THEY DO. JUMBLATT HIMSELF HAD TO INTERVENE SOME MONTHS AGO FOR FRIENDS WHO WERE ABOUT TO BE EXPELLED FROM LIBYA AND KUWAIT.

10. TROUBLE WITH MARONITES, JUMBLATT SUMMED UP, IS THAT THEY ARE OBSESSED BY FEAR. SARKIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE LAST

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MARONITE PRESIDENT OF LEBANON. THEY MADE A BIG MISTAKE IN CURRENT ATTACK ON TELL ZAATAR, WHICH HE WAS SORRY TO SEE BASHIR GEMAYEL ALSO JOINED IN ON FINALLY. MUSLIMS COULD HAVE DONE NASTY THINGS TO CHRISTIAN VILLAGES SUCH AS DEIR EL-QAMAR (IN THE CHOUF), BUT THEY WOULD NOT. NOR WOULD MUSLIMS ATTACK CHRISTIANS IN RAS BEIRUT, AS MANY SEEMED TO FEAR. MARONITES MUST HAVE CONFIDENCE IN DEMOCRACY AND ACCEPT WESTERNIZING THE COUNTRY INSTITUTIONS. BY THIS HE MEANT REFORMS TO SUPPRESS SECTARIANISM AND ESTABLISH GOVERNMENT ON MODERN PRINCIPLES.

11. I ASKED HIM IF HE HAD NOT ACCEPTED THE COMPROMISE AGREEMENT ANNOUNCED LAST FEBRUARY BY FRANGIE. JUMBLATT SAID THOSE POINTS HAD BEEN ACCEPTABLE THEN, BUT CHRISTIANS HAD REJECTED THEM, AND SITUATION HAS CHANGED. THE LEFT ALLIANCES PARTIES WILL NO LONGER ACCEPT THEM. IN THIS SENSE MARONITES ARE ARABS, AND HAVE BEEN ACTING AS ARABS HAVE ACTED HISTORICALLY TOWARDS ISRAEL — THEY ACCEPT NOTHING UNTIL IT IS TOO LATE.

12.COURSE AHEAD, JUMBLATT SAID, MUST BE TO PREPARE A COMPROMISE AGREEMENT. THIS MUST BE PRECEDED BY NEGOTIATIONS THROUGH QUIET OR PUBLIC CONTACTS BETWEEN THE SIDES, BEFORE FINAL AGREEMENT IS BROUGHT TO A ROUND TABLE AND SANCTIONED THERE. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A NEW PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION ACCORDING TO THE NEW PRINCIPLES AGREED UPON. WHEN ASKED TO SPECIFY REFORMS HE WANTED, HE MENTIONED PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION IN PARLIAMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE OF GETTING MORE YOUNG PEOPLE IN. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN THREE PARTIES BEING ELECTED, AND LIST SHOULD PERMIT VOTERS TO EXPRESS INDIVIDUAL PREFERENCES FOR PEOPLE ON THE LIST. A SECOND CHAMBER SHOULD BE CREATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH HIS WELL-PUBLICIZED PROGRAM. OBJECTIVE IS TO ABOLISH CONFESSIONALISM AND ELEIMINATE MEDIOCRITY IN PARLIAMENT. I ASKED IF HE MEANT ELIMINATING FEUDAL REMNANTS. NO, JUMBLATT INSISTED, HE MEANT ELIMINATING MEDIOCRITY. (COMMENT: JUMBLATT OF COURSE DERIVES HIS MOST STEADY SUPPORT FROM HIS TRADITIONAL FEUDAL SUZERAINTY OVER MUCH OF THE DRUZE COMMUNITY).

13. PHALANGE (PROBABLY BASHIR GEMAYEL) HAS ACCEPTED PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION, JUMBLATT ASSERTED, BUT NOT AN END TO CONFESSIONALISM. JUMBLATT THOUGH PARTIES OF THE LEFT CAN IMPOSE ON OTHER, MORE CONSERVATIVE MUSLIMS A REFORM

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PROGRAM WHICH WOULD, FOR EXAMPLE, PERMIT CIVIL MARRIAGE AND SIMILAR CHANGES WHICH MANY CHRISTIANS SUPPORT. YOUNG PEOPLE, BOTH CHRISTIAN AND MUSLIM, ARE IDEALISTIC. THEY WILL INSIST ON TOUGH REFORMS. THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERNENCE BETWEEN THESE YOUNG PEOPLE, EXCEPT THAT THE CHRISTIAN YOUTH DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE PALESTINIANS AND HOW TO HANDLE THEM. MEANWHILE, COMPETITION AMONG TRADITIONAL CHRISTIAN LEADDERS SUCH AS CHAMOUN AND GEMAYEL LENDS TO ESCALATION OF RHETORIC AND MILITARY ACTION FOR NO GOOD REASON. THIS SHOULD END.

14. AS TO PALESTINIANS, ELIMINATION OF SAIQA HAS BEEN A GOOD THING. OF COURSE SOME GROUPS SUCH AS PFLP RESORT INOPPORTUNELY TO TERRORISM (HERE JUMBLATT SHOWED HE DID NOT APPROVE RECENT AIR FRANCE HIJACKING). THERE ARE ALSO TROUBLE-MAKING SMALL GROUPS BACKED BY LIBYANS AND IRAQIS AS WELL AS SYRIANS. HOWEVER, WITH SAIQA DISAPPEARANCE, PALESTINIANS CAN NOW IMPOSE THEIR OWN LAW AMONG MOST OF THEIR PEOPLE. LEBANESE MUST LEARN HOW TO DEAL WITH PALESTINIANS, OFFER THEM A BETTER LIFE. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT PEOPLE NUMBERING THREE MILLION THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. THEY DO NOT WANT TO LIVE HERE ONLY AS AN ARMY. IN THIS SENSE, JUMBLATT SAID HE HAD NO FEAR FOR THE FUTURE OF THE COUNTRY. PEOPLE MAY EVEN HAVE BENEFITED FROM THEIR EXORCISM OF BLOOD….

15. SPECIFICALLY, JUMBLATT SAID, 1969 DAIRO ACCORD IS OUT OF DATE, BUT MODUS VIVENDI CAN BE REACHED WITH PALESTINIANS. HE NOTED THAT PALESTINIANS REMAIN IN TOUCH WITH CHRISTIANS THROUGH ABU HASSAN WHO GOES BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE DIVIDING LINE, AS DOES PHALANGE’S BAYIR GEMAYEL. HE THEN MADE SOME REMARKS ABOUT A VIABLE PALESTINIAN STATE TO INCLUDE JORDAN, AND THE 1,200,000 PALESTINIANS HAVING A COANCE TO RETURN TO THEIR HOMES IN HAIFA, ETC. ETC. (JUMBLATT IS CLEARLY BEYOND HIS DEPTH OR INTEREST WHEN HE STARTS TALKING ABOUT THE LARGER PALESTINIAN PROBLEM).

16. SPECIFICALLY ON SYRIANS, JUMBLATT SAID THAT THEY MUST LEAVE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. ALL MUSLIMS ARE AGAINST THEM. ASSAD IS A MEDIOCRE MAN WHO HAS REPEATEDLY REFUSED TO TAKE OPPORTUNITIES TO GET OUT OF THE LEBANON. AS TO REASONS FOR SYRIAN INTERVENTION, JUMBLATT SPECULATED, SOME SAY SYRIA WANTS THE BEKAA. OTHERS SAY SYRIA WISHES TO REPLACE FRANCE

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 07 STATE 166467 TOSEC 180003

AND HAS TAKEN THIS HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY TO GET CLOSE TO THE MARONITES. JUMBLATT CLAIMED ASSAD HAS SPECIFICALLY TOLD HIM THIS ON FREQUENT OCCASIONS WHILE THEY WERE STILL IN CONTACT, AS OF A FEW MONTHS AGO. ALSO, ASSAD HOPED TO WIN A CARD IN HIS DIPLOMATIC GAME, GOING TO FRANCE AS A FRIEND OF JORDAN ON THE ONE HAND AND WITH CONTROL OVER LEBANON AND THE PALESTINIANS ON THE OTHER. THIS WOULD HAVE HELPED HIM IN US EYES TOO AND MAYBE HELPED GET A GOLAN SETTLEMENT OF THE KIND HE WANTS. HOWEVER, EGYPT IS NOW BEGINNING TO REPLACE SYRIA IN THE LEBANON AS IS NORMAL. AT LEAST SADAT IN HIS SINAI II POLICY WAS FRANK. HE HAS WON MUCH RESPECT.

17. JUMBLATT TENDED TO DOWN-PLAY THE PROBLEM OF SECURITY IN LEBANON. HE SAID THE VARIOUS PARTIES ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE SECURITY IN HAND. THERE ARE FEWER ASSASSINATIONS NOW AND LOOTING IS LESS BOTH IN BEIRUT AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LEBANESE ARMY WILL BE REBUILT. THE POPULACE, ONCE IT HAS PEACE, WILL SELL ITS ARMS. WITH $20 MILLION, JUMBLATT SAID, THE STATE COULD BUY BACK THE ARMS ITSELF. PEOPLE ARE HUNGRY. AGAIN HE RETURNED TO HIS THEME THAT YOUNG PEOPLE MUST BE ALLOWED TO TAKE POWER IN THIS COUNTRY.

18. FINALLY, JUMBLATT WISHED ME WELL. HE SAID DEAN BROWN DID A GOOD JOB HERE. HE PERHAPS LACKED PATIENCE. IT IS BETTER TOWORK A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY AND PATIENTLY AND PERHAPS WITH LOWER PROFILE, BUT US CAN BE HELPFUL.

19. SUMMING UP HIS VIEWS, JUMBLATT SAID HE EXPECTED THE WAR TO END SOON. EVEN THOUGH HE ADMITTED HIS OWN AIMS ARE WHAT AMOUNT TO A CONTINUOUS REVOLUTION UNTIL POWER MOVES FROM THE HANDS OF THE MARONITES TO HIS OWN AND THOSE OF OTHERS ALLIED WITH HIM, HE THOUGHT MEDITERRANEAN PEOPLE SUCH AS THE LEBANESE AND PALESTINIANS NEED A REST. TIME HAS COME FOR COMPROMISE, AND HE IS PREPARED FOR THAT. WHEN I ASKED WHETHER CONCENTRATED BITTERNESS BETWEEN FACTIONS MIGHT NOT IMPEDE COMPROMISE, HE SAID PEOPLE TEND TO FORGET THE CARNAGE, BLOOD, AND DESTRUCTION, PARTICULARLY IF A CATASTROPHE IS BIG ENOUGHT. MEANWHILE NOTHING CAN BE DONE BY WAY OF FORMAL PEACEMAKING UNTIL THE SYRIANS WITHDRAW TOTALLY FROM THE LEBANON.

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20. COMMENT: AS I HAVE BEEN TOLD TO EXPECT, JUMBLATT HAS AN UNCANNILY WINNING PERSONALITY. IT IS HARD TO DISLIKE THE MAN FACE TO FACE. HE HAS MANY MOODS AND MANY GUISES AND SEEMS TO BE SPEAKING FRANKLY AT ALL TIMES. HOWEVER, WHAT HE SAID OFTEN STRUCK ME AS UNREALISTIC TO SAY THE LEAST. IN PARTICULAR, I WAS STRUCK BY HIS GREAT OPTIMISM TO ME IN VIEW OF HIS SIMULTANEOUS PUBLIC PRONOUNCEMENTS THAT THE WAR WILL CONTINUE AND VIETNAMIZATION MAY RESULT IF THE CHRISTIANS DO NOT STOP THEIR ATTACK ON TELL XAATAR. HE IS CLEARLY A MAN WHOSE WORDS SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE. BUT HE IS ALSO A LEADER WHO SEEMS INDISPENSIBLE IN THE CURRENT POLITICAL MAKEUP HERE. HE IS OUT TO BECOME NUMBER ONE IN THE LEBANON, EVEN IF THIS TAKES A FEW MORE YEARS.

SEELYE

UNQTE ROBINSON

CONFIDENTIAL

<< END OF DOCUMENT >>

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