Parliamentary Elections

Waiting for the Electoral Law- Preemptive Moves, Retirements and Refusals

Lebanese Parties’ Stances on the Different Electoral Laws

However it should be fun imagining Berri backing the Orthodox Gathering’s Law should the Christian parties agree on it.

I’m selfishly quoting myself from a post I wrote three weeks ago. The surprise: Now Berri is backing the Orthodox Gathering’s Law, and so is Hezbollah. The Christian parties, however, did not agree on it. Two things need to be carefully noticed: The Shia duo’s preemptive move that put the FM and its Christian allies in an awkward position, and the Christian parties’ failure to agree on a Law. (more…)

Waiting for the Electoral Law- March 14’s Proposal Or the 50 Districts Law

Lebanon’s Approximate Electoral Map According to 14 March Alliance’s proposal (The fifty districts)
PS: The District borders might be inaccurate (Especially in the North (Akkar) and Bekaa (Baalback))

You can check the draft law here

The Lebanese Forces, Phalangist Party and other Christian Opposition Parties proposed in the past few days an electoral Law dividing Lebanon to 50 separate electoral constituencies. The law has two important features: The high number of electoral districts (And thus the smaller sizes of the districts), and the winner-takes all system (Or majoritarian representation). I found it very similar to the 1960 law, except for the shape and number of constituencies. The constituencies aren’t exclusively administrative ones (more…)

Waiting for the Electoral Law-Are We Waiting For Godot?

The parliamentary elections are in less than 9 months, and still no sign of an electoral law.

It’s not as if nobody tried to make another law. There was the Orthodox Gathering’s one (Each Sect elects its representatives.), the government’s one (Proportionality in 13 mid-size constituencies), the Fouad Boutros committee’s Law (more…)

Facebook, Campaigns, Pages…and Politicians

By the time I’m writing, there are 1524080 Facebook accounts in Lebanon. Out of these persons, 1101840 are 21 and older. By removing fake profiles, accounts with incorrect birthdays, accounts that are owned by Lebanese (and not foreigners), and accounts that are rarely used, we’ll probably get a number close to a million.

Back in 2009, the electoral body was made out of 3257407 voters. Let’s maximize the number for 2013 and make it four million eligible voters. Let’s also higher the percentage of people who will actually go and cast a ballot and make it 55%. That makes 2.2 million Lebanese voters in 2013. 1 out of 2.2 million is equal to 45%.

In a nutshell, 45% of the Lebanese who will vote in 2013 have Facebook accounts. I will make the assumption that 75% of the Lebanese on Facebook will log in at least once in the next 9 months. That makes 33% of the voting population. (more…)

Waiting for the Electoral Law-The Cabinet Passes PR Law

Lebanon’s Electoral Map According To The Draft Law

The government just approved the electoral law after more than 2 years of talks and speculations. The parliament still needs to give the green light so the drafted electoral legislature takes effect. But for a number of reasons, that Law is clearly shaped in a way that empowers M8 and the ruling coalition.

PR in itself. Proportional representation is in itself a winning strategy for Hezbollah and Michel Aoun. Just take a look at the diagrams related to the 2009 elections.

Denying the right to vote on expatriates. The Lebanese abroad cannot vote according to the current Law. They are known to be reluctant to Hezbollah and M8, especially for the ones that are in the Americas. Silencing them in this way seems very efficient strategy to avoid any kind of bad surprises.

“A better Law”. M8 introduced the women’s quota, PR and lots of other innovations. They are counting on the support of activists for the law to pass, or at least to make M14 to look undemocratic in their efforts to turn the drafted law down.

The Constituencies’ Decoupage. In PR, the constituencies sizes (more…)

The Aftermath Of Koura’s By-Elections

Fadi Karam

The results are out since yesterday. Fadi Karam, the LF candidate, won. The LF kept the seat in a caza under 14M’s control for 8 years now. But when I wrote a post a couple of days earlier about the subject, I missed something very important.

 What does it really mean that the LF is facing the SSNP in Koura? Everyone would be surprised if the Shias of Nabatiyeh will have the choice to vote between the FM and the Baath. That’s exactly (more…)

The Importance Of Koura’s By-Elections

One year before the 2013 General Elections, comes a by-election that might give an estimation of what will happen in the upcoming electoral fiesta. What the next days will bring is more than just a simple ballot casting.

  • The Perfect Timing Only one year before the 2013 General Elections, comes a by-election on a silver plate. A perfect prova in the perfect time. Marwan Charbel has the chance to try his skills on a small-scale before the 2013 deadline. If he’s capable to control the electoral battle now, he’s likely to do so next year. If incidents break, he will have to review his plans. On Sunday the fifteenth of June, the Interior (more…)