1. FURTHER ELEMENTS OF UNCERTAINTY WAS INTERJECTED INTO LEBANESE POLITICAL PROCESS EVENING 6 MAY WHEN KAMAL JUMBLATT, SPEAKING ON BEHALF OF “PROGRESSIVES”, PUBLICLY OPPOSED CONVENING THE PARLIAMENT TO ELECT A NEW PRESIDENT BEFORE “ALL FORMS OF PRESSURE ARE LIFTED AND ALL INTERFERENCE IS ENDED.” WHILE JUMBLATT’S REMARKS DO NOT RPT NOT CONSTITUTE A FORMAL DEMAND THAT THE 8 MAY SESSION BE POSTPONED, THEY DO INDICATE THAT JUMBLATT AND THE SYRIANS HAVE NOT YET BEEN RECONCILED. AS FURTHER EVIDENCE, SYRIAN-SPONSORED DAILY, “AH SHARQ”, UNLEASED 7 MAY BROADSIDE AGAINST JUMBLATT.

2. WHETHER SOME OF ‘ARAFAT’S UNDERLINGS HAD SECRETLY JOURNEYED TO DAMASCUS PREVIOUSLY OR NOT, IT NOW SEEMS CLEAR THAT ‘ARAFAT HIMSELF DID NOT RPT NOT DEPART LEBANON UNTIL 6 MAY, WHEN HE FLEW TO SYRIA. IF HE IS SEEKING, AS SOME OBSERVERS BELIEVE, TO MEDIATE BETWEEN JUMBLATT AND THEY SYRIANS, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HE WILL BE ABLE TO PUT THE FROSTING ON THE CAKE IN TIME FOR SATURDAY’S PARLIAMENT SESSION TO PROCEED ON SCHEDULE. WE BELIEVE THAT JUMBLATT MIGHT BE WILLING NOW TO REACH SOME COMPROMISE WITH SYRIA BECAUSE OF INTERNAL WEAKNESSES IN HIS POSITION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS THAT SECOND-ECHELON DRUZE AND PSP PARTY LEADERS CLOSE TO JUMBLATT HAVE BECOME DISENCHANTED WITH REPEATED DELAYS IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS, FOR WHICH JUMBLATT HIM- SELF BEARS A SHARE OF THE BLAME. SIMILARLY, ‘ARAFAT AND HIS FATAH COLLEAGUES ARE CHAFING UNDER PRESENT PRECARIOUS SITUATION WHICH THEY PROBABLY BELIEVE LEAVES JUMBLATT (AND HIS EVEN LESS RELIABLE LEFTIST COHORTS) WITH CONSIDERABLE LEEWAY TO REHEAT THE MILITARY SITUATION AND PULL THE PALESTINIANS BACK INTO A CONFLICT WHICH COULD THIS TIME INCLUDE THE SYRIANS.

3. WE WOULD EXPECT SOME INDICATION FRIDAY, MAY 7 OF WHETHER OR NOT PARLIAMENT WILL ATETEMPT TO MEET 8 MAY. GEN. AHDAB, SELF-ANNOUNCED MILITARY GOVERNOR OF LEBANON, HAS

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ANNOUNCED THE IMPOSITION OF A CURFEW IN A PROSCRIBED AREA AROUND THE VILLA (WHERE PARLIAMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN GATHER IN EXILE) EFFECTIVE AT 1400 HOURS LOCAL TODAY. PREPARATIONS THUS CON- TINUE FOR THE SESSION WHILE THE POLICOS DECIDE WHETHER TO ATTEND OR NOT. WE UNDERSTAND THAT MOST CHRISTIAN DEPUTIES AREPREPARED TO ATTEND, GIVEN MINIMAL SECURITY WHICH AT PRESENT EXISTS, BUT ALMOST NONE OF THE OTHER PARLIAMENTARIANS, INCLUDING THOSE CON- TROLLED BY JUMBLATT, HAVE YET CALLED THEIR SHOTS.

4. SINCE THE ADMINISTRATIVE AND JUDICIARY COMMITTEE OF THE PARLIAMENT DECIDED TWO DAYS AGO THAT AMINIMUM OF 66 DEPUTIES MUST BE PRESENT BEFORE GAVEL FALLS, “INDEPENDENT” GROUPING LED BY SPEAKER ASSSAD PROBABLY CAN DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT SESSION COMES OFF. THIS GROUP, WHICH AS WE NOTED IN REFTEL, MAY BE COMING APART AS MEMBERS CHOOSE UP SIDES, HAS SLATED A MEETING FOR TODAY WHICH PROBABLY WILL GIVE AN INDICATION OF THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND. THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE SOME MOVEMENT WHITHIN THE UNCOMMITTED TOWARD SARKIS IP RESPONSE TO WHAT STIMULI WE CAN ONLYSPECULATE AT THE MOMENT, BUT CAMPAIGN POSTERS PROCLAIMING THAT “EDDE IS THE MAN” HAVE GONE UP OVERNIGHT IN SOME PARTS OF WEST BEIRUT. FOR ANALYTICAL PURPOSES, THEREFORE, PARLIAMENTARY MEMBERSHIP BREAKS DOWN INTO THREE BASIS GROUPS TODAY AS FAR AS WE CAN DETERMINE: PRO-SARKIS (LARGEST BUT NOT YET DETERMINANT); INDEPENDENTS (SECOND AND KEY); AND PRO-EDDE. PRECISE NUMBERS ARE ANYBODY’S GUESS BUT WE WOULD PLACE SARKIS VOTES IN HAND TODAY AT SLIGHTLY OVER 50 RPT 50 AND, THEREFORE SUFFICIENT FOR ELECTION ON SECOND BALLOT IF SESSION GOES AHEAD. ELECTION BY THIS SLIM MARGIN, HOWEVER, WOULD LEAVE THE NEW PRESIDENT IN A RELATIVELY WEAK POSITION AND FACING A DIVIDED ELECTORATE–NOT A HAPPY PROSPECT.

5. SECURITY SITUATION CONTINUED TO HOLD FAIRLY WELL IN BEIRUT WITH SOME EXCHANGES OF FIRE IN METN. LAST NIGHT, FURN ASH SHUBAK WAS HEAVILY SHELLED FROM DIRECTION OF RAS AN NABA ACCORDING TO LOCAL RESIDENT; THIS COULD BE WORK OF SPOILERS SUPPORTING “REJECTIONISTS”. PHALANGE SOURCES ALSO REPORT LIMITED GROUND ACTION (TWO PHALANGISTS KIA) IN VICINITY OF TAYOUNE CIRCLE, WHICH CONSTITUES ONE OF OUTER LIMITES OF SECURITY ZONE SURROUNDING PARLIAMENT SITE. ON OTHER HAND, SAME SOURCE IN AL HOUT STREET THAT TOLD US OF BATTLE OF THE GARBAGE TRUCKS TWO DAYS AGO REPORTS THAT TRUCKS THRUST INTO NEIGHBORHOOD THIS MORNING WITHOUT ENCOUNTERING ARMED RESISTENCE.

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ALSO ESCAPED SHELLING YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING FOR FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS.

BROWN

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