Month: April 2013

When Ahmad Al-Assir Calls For Jihad
Ahmad Al-Assir (The Daily Star/Hasan Shaaban)

Ahmad Al-Assir (The Daily Star/Hasan Shaaban)

Just when you thought the Syrian spillover couldn’t get worse, and that the events happening on the borders, the refugees crisis, the shelling of the Lebanese towns, the political quarrels and the unrest in Tripoli aren’t enough, salafi sheikh Ahmad Al-Assir and sheikh  Salem Al Rifai issue a Fatwa for Jihad. It’s quite an important move, considered that Hezbollah is already deeply involved in the Syrian civil war, apparently protecting the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Damascus and leading the battle for Al Qussair. But what is even more interesting is the timing of Assir’s move.

Assir is losing influence. There were times when Ahmad Al-Assir would appear on every television, literally every day. These days are over. The collapse of the Lebanese government that was supported by Hezbollah made Assir lose the attention he got over the past few months. A Sunni moderate coming from a traditional Beiruti family is Lebanon’s prime minister-designate, and he got nominated from all the 27 Sunni MPs. Assir can’t go out and say that Tammam Salam is Hezbollah’s candidate, and Future Movement are clearly making a comeback in Lebanese politics with the appointment of a member of their parliamentary bloc as a PM. Assir never had that important impact in Lebanese politics, but he was rising star that’s now fading away. He can’t draw the attention anymore, is seeing his demonstrations getting banned and can’t attack Hezbollah the same way he used to do, because the party isn’t leading the coalition anymore. All the Sunni parties – except him – will be probably represented in the government, further isolating Lebanese Salafis, and making his speeches look even more sectarian than they are. The ultimate solution becomes calling for Jihad, hoping that he can regain some of the popularity he lost when things calmed down in Lebanon by accusing Hezbollah of killing Sunnis in Syria and by mobilizing Lebanese.

The worst timing ever. Why? Because earlier yesterday, the Greek Orthodox and Syriac Orthodox Bishops of Aleppo were kidnapped. So it’s not a very smart move to scare the Lebanese Christians few months before the elections. Ahmad Al-Assir gave Hezbollah just what he wanted; not more, not less. By calling for Jihad in Syria the same day Bishops get abducted, Sunni Radicalism suddenly became the most important boogeyman for the Lebanese Christians, ultimately reinforcing Michel Aoun at a very critical moment: Governmental formation and electoral law negotiations.

It’s interesting though how Hezbollah and Salafis seem to be fighting each other in Syria. Looks more like a Lebanese spillover in Syria than a Syrian spillover in Lebanon…

 

Lebanon In The Valley Of Despair – Wikileaks And The Lebanese Civil War

WikiLeaks

“Lebanon in the valley of despair” is the name of a U.S. diplomatic cable dating from 1975.  The best way to commemorate the civil war is by remembering its brutality and the failure of the peace negotiations. I hereby leave you with some parts  of the leaked U.S. diplomatic cables of 1975-1976.

1975 March 6 – The Very Beginning

TENSIONS GENERATED THROUGHOUT LEBANON OVER PAST
WEEK BY CLASHES BETWEEN LEBANESE ARMY AND “ARMED
ELEMENTS” IN SIDON (REFTELS) HAD BEGUN TO LESSEN
PERCEPTIBLY LATE MAR 5, FOLLOWING COUNTRY-WIDE MANIFES-
ATIONS BY CITIZENS (MOSTLY CHRISTIANS BUT SOME SHI’A)
DEMONSTRATING IN SUPPORT OF ARMY AND GOL. DEMONSTRATIONS
WENT OFF MORE OR LESS PEACEFULLY, WITH ONLY ONE PERSON
REPORTED KILLED (ACCIDENTALLY BY STRAY BULLET).

(see full text here)

1975 September 26 – Dialogue

LEBANON HAS WAGERED MUCH ON A SINGLE CAST OF THE DICE WITH
THE FORMATION OF THE 20 MAN “COMMITTEE OF NATIONAL DIALOGUE”
(REFTEL). AN EXAMINATION OF PREVIOUS ROUNDS THIS YEAR WILL
SHOW THAT TEMPORARY OF A SIDE ISSUE WHICH HAD ASSUMED CENTRAL
IMPORTANCE IN THE COURSE OF THE FIGHTING. ROUND ONE WAS BROUGHT
TO VMA CLOSE BY GEMAYEL’S AGREEMENT TO TURN OVER FOR QUESTIONING
SEVERAL INDIVIDUALS ACCUSED OF COMPLICITY IN SO-CALLED AIN
RUMMANEH “MASSACRE” OF APRIL 14. ROUND TWO TAPERES OFF FOLLOWING
THE RESIGNATION OF THE MILITARY CABINET WHICH ASSUMED POWER
ONLY AFTER RPT AFTER THAT ROUND BEGAN; AND ROUND THREE ENDED
WITH NAMING OF KARAME CABINET. FOLLOWING SUCCESSION OF ABORTIVE
CEASEFIRE, LEBABESE, WITH ASSISTANCE OF SYRIANS, HAVE SETTLED
UPON DIALOGUE COMMITTEE AS DEVICE FOR HOPEFULLY BRINGING RELIEF
FROM STRIFE WHICH HAS BROUGH THIS COUNTRY AS NEAR TO NATIONAL
COLLAPSE AS ANY DEVELOPMENT IN ITS TROUBLED HISTORY.

(see full text here)

1975 November 1 – Clashes

AT TIME OF DRAFTING THIS CABLE, CLASHES IN MAIN
HOTEL DISTRICT ADJACENT TO EMBASSY CONTINUE. SMALL ARMS FIRE
IS HEARD, PUNCTUATED OCCASIONALLY BY EXPLOSIONS. ELSEWHERE
IN CITY, SECURITY SITUATION
DETERIORATED AFTERNOON OCTOBER 31 AND HEAVY FIGHTING
WAS REPORTED OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO HOTEL
DISTRICT, SHIA/AIN RUMANNEH/FURN ASH SHURBAH
COMPLEX BROKE DOWN BEGINNING APPROX 1300 HOURS
YESTERDAY. CLASHES THERE OVERNIGHT WERE REPORTEDLY
AS BAD AS ANY PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED AND CASUALTIES
IN THAT SECTOR ALONE WERE ALLEGED TO BE BETWEEN 40
AND 100 DEAD. AS OF MID-MORNING TODAY, ONLY MACHINE
GUN EXCHANGES WERE REPORTED BETWEEN SHIAH AND AIN
RUMMANEH, BUT WE HAVE NO MORE RECENT INFORMATION.
EXCHANGES OF UNDETERMINED FEROCITY WERE EXPERIENCED
OVERNIGHT ALONG CENTRAL AXIS PARALLELING BESHARA
AL-KHOURY STREET (I.E., SODOCE, RAS AN NABEH, NASRA,
WESTERN ASHRAFIYAH, ETC.); BETWEEN QARANTIANA AND
NORTHERN ASHRAFIYAH; AND BETWEEN SUBURBS OF HADATH AND LAYLAKI.

IN SUMMARY, DESPITE PERSISTING EFFORTS
TO IMPOSE A CEASE-FIRE, WE NOW BACK TO SQUARE MINUS
ONE ON SECURITY SCENE.

(see full text here)

1975 November 6 – Another Day Of Calm

1. SUMMARY: LIKE A BOXER PUNCH-DRUNK FROM FOUR GRUELING
ROUNDS OF PUNISHMENT, BKEIRUT CONTINUES NOV 6 TO RISE FROM THE
CANVAS; THE LEGS ARE WOBBLY, THE VISION BLURRED. THERE ARE
RISING HOPES BUT AS YET LITTLE CONFIDENCE, THAT THE CITY WILL
NOT HAVE TO ANSWER THE BELL FOR ROUND 5. END SUMMARY.

2. BEIRUT AND MOST OF LEBANON ENJOYING ANOTHER DAY OF CALM
NOV6, WITH ONLY RARE BURSTS OF MACHINEGUN FIRE TO MAR THE
FAMILIAR CIVILIAN NOISE POLLUTION OF HAMRA AND OTHER REAWAKEN-
ING COMMERCIAL DISTRICTS. TWO ROCKETS WERE FIRED INTO
ASHRAFIYEH OVERNIGHT, BUT GENERAL ABSENCE OF BACKGROUND
EXPLOSIONS ALMOST EERIE. DESPITE CALM, LEBANESE VENTURING
OUT IN FALL FINERY WEAR A WARY EXPRESSION AND COMPETENT
OBSERVERS ARE NOT RPT NOT PREPARED TO DECLARE PEACE IN OUR
TIME. SOME, IN FACT, ARE PREDICITING A RETURN TO ARMS AS EARLY
AS NEXT MONDAY. TRIPOLI REPORTEDLY IS TENSE FOLLOWING DISCO-
VERY OF UNIDENTIFIED BODY, BUT WAVE OF KIDNAPPING IN BEIRUT IS
APPARENTLY FINISHED AS OF THIS REPORT.

(see full text here)

1975 December 18 – Dialogue Is Failing

SAEB SALAM AND KAMAL JUMBLATT SEPARATELY ISSUED CALLS
FOR THE RESIGNATION OF FRANGIE AND MININT CHAMOUN, THOUGH
IT MUST BE SOURCE OF EMBARRASSMENT TO TWO MEN OF SUCH
DIFFERENT TEMPERAMENT AND PHILOSOPHY THAT THEY AGREE ON
THIS QUESTION.

(see full text here)

1976 January 14 – The Battle For Beirut Continues

SUMMARY: THE BATTLE OF BEIRUT AND SUBURBS CONTINUES.
TRIPOLI AND ZAHLE AREAS ALSO REPORTED TO BE HOT.
MARONITE MEETING JAN 13 RESULTED IN HARD POSITION ON ISSUE
OF PALESTINIAN PRESENCE BUT A HINT OF FLEXIBILITY OF INTERNAL
POLITICAL REFORMS. PRES FRANGIE IS CONTINUING CONSULTA-
TIONS AMONG CHRISTIAN LEADERS PRIOR TO MEETING WITH
SYRIAN PRES ASAD. THIS MEETING IS STILL PROJECTED FOR
JAN 17. END SUMMARY

2. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF BREATHING SPELL FOR THE BATTLE OF BEIRUT
AND SUBURBS HAS CONTINUED. FIGHTING IN AND AROUND TEL
ZAATAR, THE NORTHERN BRIDGES OVER BEIRUT RIVER, AND THE
HOTEL DISTRICT FIGURES MOST PROMINENTLY. TEL ZAATAR AND
JISR EL PACHA APPEAR TO BE HOLDING OUT WITH LITTLE SIGN THAT
PHALANGISTS HAVE MADE MUCH PROGRESS IN THEIR AREAS.  ONE

REPORT STATES THAT JISR EL PACHA HAS BEEN EVACUATED.THIS
IS NOT CONFIRMED BUT PHALANGISTS MAY HAVE TIGHTENED THEIR
HOLD ON THE CAMP. NUMBEROUS ATTEMPTS BY PALESTINIANS
AND THEIR ALLIES TO FORCE THEIR WAY FROM CHIAH PAST HAZMIEH
HAVE FAILED SO FAR, BUT HAVE SERVED TO KEEP THE POT BOILING
FROM FURN EL CHEBBAK THROUGH HADATH-LEIGLCPAM PHALANGISTS
PERSIST IN THEIR EFFORTS TO BRING THE WAR HOME TO TARIK
JADIDE AND MAZRAA BY SHELLING, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A
GROWING NUMBER OF CASUALTIES.

(see full text here)

1976 April 4 – Syria’s Asad becomes a Crusader

IF I GOT NOTHING ELSE FROM MY MEETING WITH FRANGIE,
CHAMOUN AND GEMAYEL, IT IS THEIR CLEAR, UNEQUIVOCAL
AND UNMISTAKEABLE BELIEF THAT THEIR PRINCIPAL HOPE FOR
SAVING CHRISTIAN NECKS IS SYRIA.THEY SOUNDED LIKE
ASAD IS THE LATEST INCARNATION OF THE CRUSADERS.

(see full text here)

Some events are very similar to what happened in the past few months:

“TRIPOLI REPORTEDLY IS TENSE”, “LEBANESE HAVE SETTLED UPON DIALOGUE COMMITTEE”, “BRING THE WAR TO TARIK
JADIDE”, “WAVE OF KIDNAPPING IN BEIRUT IS APPARENTLY FINISHED AS OF THIS REPORT”.

Ironically, a wave of kidnapping is also apparently finished as of this post.

 Sad.

How Tammam Salam Became A Consensual Candidate
Tammam SalamTammam Salam (REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir)

Tammam Salam (REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir)

Tammam Salam. That’s the name of the man that will be tasked to form a new government once the consultations end. A consensual Prime Minister it seems.

A small background

Tammam Salam boycotted the elections of 1992 – like most of the Christians at the time – as a refusal of Syrian hegemony. Salam participated in the 1996 elections and won. In the 2000 elections he lost against Rafiq Hariri and in the 2009 elections he won in Saad Hariri’s list. That kind of makes him a centrist person. He also doesn’t speak about Syria and its crisis and doesn’t criticize Hezbollah, at least not like other Future Movement MPs. He has an Islamic influence coming from the Makassed foundation. He’s also from Beirut. The last time a PM was a Beiruti was 13 years ago. His Grandfather was Beirut’s MP in the Ottoman parliament, and was also the head of the Municipality. His father was Prime Minister under Bechara El Khoury, Camille Chamoun, Fouad Chehab, and Sleiman Frangieh. That’s four of the five Pre-war presidents of Lebanon. The Lebanese flag was also drawn in his father’s house. That last thing probably doesn’t matter, but you can see what I mean.

Tamam Salam is in the middle. Between Christians and Muslims, between Shias and Sunnis. And he’s strong within the Sunni community (A thing Mikati suffered with at the beginning). He is also a Beiruti, and not any Beiruti. He is the son of Saeb Bey Salam, and the grandson of Salim Ali (Abu Ali) Salam.

How it all started

Tammam Salam was nominated as M14’s candidate, and Jumblatt endorsed him, after refusing Rifi. Tammam Salam won’t participate in the elections if he’s nominated, which means that his success (If he succeeds) won’t be a direct threat to Mikati and Hariri. Tammam Salam visited Saudi Arabia – whose ambassador in Lebanon ironically said in the same day that the Saudis  do not interfere in Lebanese Politics – where he got the blessing he needed. Also, after the Saudi ambassador – who ironically said that the Saudis do not interfere in Lebanese Politics – visited Mikati, Mikati said he doesn’t want to be Lebanon’s next Prime Minister. Then, after leaving Saudi Arabia – whose ambassador in Lebanon ironically said that the Saudis  do not interfere in Lebanese Politics – one day before he gets nominated, Tammam Salam came back to Lebanon. Here you go, Saudi Arabia’s support.

And then?

Now’s here’s the tricky part. Hezbollah lost Mikati. Hezbollah also lost Jumblatt. And Hezbollah is losing Syria. Hezbollah can’t also repeat what he did in 2011. The elections are way too close. He made that mistake on the 7th of May 2008 and lost the 2009 elections because of it. So what will Hezbollah do? He plays it smart. M8 can endorse Karami, Tabbara, Abdul Rahim Mrad, or anyone else, but the M8 coalition will probably lose because Jumblatt won’t give his support. Instead of fighting a lost battle, they take M14’s achievement, make Jumblatt’s swing votes look useless – while they’re not at all – and push with Tammam Salam making him a consensual candidate. That’s how M14 don’t exactly look like winners, and Saudi Arabia’s increasing influence (while Syria is on fire) doesn’t look that important because Salam is suddenly everyone’s candidate. And he can be everyone’s candidate. Check the background part again.

It’s only the beginning

It’s a huge responsibility for Tammam Salam. He will have to form a unity cabinet (Because Jumblatt wants a unity government), make sure we have a new electoral law (now that the Christian parties will boycott any elections under the 1960 law) and organize elections. He’s also short on time because the parliament’s expiry date is soon unless it extends its term. Forming a government, agreeing on an electoral law and organizing elections all in 3 months is a mission impossible. Only to form a government, it took Hariri five months and Mikati  seven . And that’s another dilemma for Tammam Salam. Will he agree on the parliament’s term extension? What will his stance be on the STL, the issue that brought Hariri’s government down? What will his stance be  on the name of the ISF commander, the issue that brought Mikati’s government down? It’s going to be a tough road for Salam. It’s going to be even more difficult when different parties will start asking their share of the cake, and we might have a new interesting slice of the pie this time: The ministry of Petroleum.

 The real winners? Prime Minister Tammam Salam, Kingmaker Walid Jumblatt, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Jumblatt is already enjoying his success: Naming the PM, choosing the type of the government, and even Vetoing.